The seasonal pattern previously evident for the July, August and September months is not apparent in 2014. The seasonal factors for these months have been set to one resulting in revised seasonally adjusted estimates. For details see pages 4-7.
TREND ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE)
Employment increased to 11,604,900. Unemployment increased to 745,500. Unemployment rate remained steady at 6.0%. Participation rate remained steady at 64.6%. Aggregate monthly hours worked decreased 1.4 million hours (0.1%) to 1,604.2 million hours.
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE)
Employment decreased 29,700 to 11,592,500. Full-time employment increased 21,600 to 8,028,900 and part-time employment decreased 51,300 to 3,563,600. Unemployment increased 11,000 to 746,600. The number of unemployed persons looking for full-time work increased 6,600 to 525,700 and the number of unemployed persons only looking for part-time work increased 4,400 to 220,800. Unemployment rate increased 0.1 pts to at 6.1% from a revised August 2014 estimate. Participation rate decreased 0.2 pts to 64.5%. Aggregate monthly hours worked decreased 15.0 million hours (0.9%) to 1 ,591.3 million hours.
Australia's jobless rate rose 0.1 percentage point to 6.1 per cent in September, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, which has come under fire this week for the veracity of its data.
The ABS said there were 30,000 fewer people registered as employed in the month, well below expectations of a 15,550-strong increase.
The participation rate was down 0.2 percentage points to 64.5, against expectations of 64.8 per cent.
The credibility of monthly employment data – an important measure of the economy's health – has been thrown into doubt by the ABS, which said on Wednesday it was reviewing its July, August and September figures.
Wild swings in employment figures over recent months – including an unbelievable 121,000-strong increase in jobs in August – are making it harder for investors and policymakers to determine the state of the economy.
The ABS said on Wednesday it would scrap its normal practice of seasonally adjusting the monthly labour force survey, starting with September figures.
It also removed the adjustment for July and August because there was "little evidence of seasonality" in those months.
The ABS on Thursday confirmed its revised methodology, saying "the seasonal pattern previously evident for the July, August and September months is not apparent in 2014.
ANZ said the revised September data pointed to an unemployment rate of "more or less 6 per cent for the past five months".
"At face value today's data suggest that labour market conditions have stabilised in recent months," the bank said.
Treasurer Joe Hockey has signalled that market participants may be charged a fee to access data provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) as he blamed Labor’s budget cuts for dodgy job figures produced by the agency.
The credibility of monthly employment data – arguably the most crucial gauge of the economy’s health – has been thrown into doubt by the official statistician, who said it was conducting a review of its July, August and today’s September figures.
Speaking in Washington, Mr Hockey acknowledged the August reporting of a jump of 121,000 new jobs seemed “extraordinary” – an indication the Treasurer was himself sceptical of the official figures. By comparison, the much larger US economy created 142,000 jobs the same month.
Mr Hockey said the government was “actively looking” at a user-pays system for ABS data and that he would be taking proposals to Cabinet in the coming weeks.
But he declined to take responsibility for the fiasco, instead censuring Labor for the errors.
“The fact is the previous government left the ABS with insufficient resources to be able to upgrade their computer systems and also some structural issues that need to be addressed including the fact they haven’t got a chief statistician,” said Hockey, who’s in Washington for the IMF autumn meeting of central bankers and finance ministers.
The ABS had $50 million stripped from its budget by the previous government and is losing about 115 staff.
The cuts are mainly a result of repeated efficiency dividends by the former Rudd and Gillard governments.
The ABS had $50 million stripped from its budget by the previous government and is losing about 115 staff.
That's odd, the CPSU claim that it was only $10 million, while Hockey stripped a further $68 million in this budget... Maybe the AFR are talking about the entire Labor term. Even still, in a 6 year term, $50 million, compared to in one budget, $68 million, can hardly call out the Labor government as to blame.
Quote:
Treasurer Joe Hockey calls for answers over Australian Bureau of Statistics jobs data By Michael Vincent and Simon Frazer
Federal Treasurer Joe Hockey says he wants answers to the problems the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has had with unemployment figures.
Mr Hockey, who is in the US to discuss Australia's G20 agenda, said last month's unemployment figures were "extraordinary".
The rate was 6.1 per cent after jumping to a 12-year high of 6.4 per cent the previous month.
The ABS has now taken the rare step of abandoning seasonal adjustment for its latest employment data.
"I have asked the Secretary of the Treasury to look into it. I'm unhappy with the volatility of the series," Mr Hockey said.
The Treasurer said the previous government left the ABS with insufficient resources to upgrade their computers.
Mr Hockey said the bureau needs to modernise to provide better information.
"I'm not writing out a blank cheque for the Australian Bureau of Statistics - I don't write blank cheques - but we have been for some months working on a new plan for the Australian Bureau of Statistics, including better utilisation of resources and also importantly, better ways of collecting data," he said.
Asked if the market can have confidence in the bureau, he said it was still one of the best statistical agencies in the world and analysts need to look for trends.
However, the union representing the staff at the ABS said the state of the organisation was embarrassing.
The CPSU said $68 million was cut from the organisation in this year's budget under the Coalition Government.
It said that followed a $10 million reduction in the previous year's budget under the Labor government.
In that two-year period, the union said 350 roles had been cut.
CPSU deputy national president Alistair Waters said the lack of resources at the bureau was jeopardising the credibility of its data.
Figures released by the ABS today show the unemployment rate has risen from 6 to 6.1 per cent, with almost 30,000 jobs lost in September.
The figures, without seasonal adjustment, estimate that 21,600 full-time jobs were added, but that was offset by a 51,300 fall in part-time employment.
The unemployment rate matched economist expectations, but the job losses were very different from economist forecasts that centred on a gain of 16,000 jobs.
"If man is to survive, he will have learned to take a delight in the essential differences between men and between cultures. He will learn that differences in ideas and attitudes are a delight, part of life's exciting variety, not something to fear." - Gene Roddenberry
"Balloon animals are a great way to teach children that the things they love dearly, may spontaneously explode" -- Lee Camp
If the ABS had not set the seasonal adjustment factors to one, the seasonally adjusted estimate of total employed persons for Australia would have declined by approximately 172,000 persons between August and September 2014
I'm a bit disappointed we didn't get to see that figure posted today just for the laughs. Pure bear porn.
That's odd, the CPSU claim that it was only $10 million, while Hockey stripped a further $68 million in this budget... Maybe the AFR are talking about the entire Labor term. Even still, in a 6 year term, $50 million, compared to in one budget, $68 million, can hardly call out the Labor government as to blame.
So Hockey has caused a further 235 job losses?
Good research Kulganis thx for that.
It would be unhealthy for our democracy if they paywall ABS data. The seasonal data has been more volatile for decades this is just a bit of a beat up having a go at the ABS.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
If the true rate is at 6.1% it puts into doubt any notion of price crashes or even a prolonged stagnation. Unemployment needs to be trending up and in the last 12 months it hasn't really done much other than hover.
I realise there's contention over the figures but they are not gong to be to far off and I base this off real world results. If unemployment is picking up and is trending up on s consistent bases then things tend to go real bad real quickly and that is just not happening. Anecdotal but I haven't spoken to anyone recently, not personally or professionally, who have concerns over the economy or their own financial standing now or even into the near future.
No even has a true or real belief we are anything other than wealthy and prosperous as a nation. This sort of sentiment doesn't come in an environment of high or progressively higher unemployment rates.
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