Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]


Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
  • 2
How About Those August Job Numbers - ABS retracting the false narrative; First home buyer numbers also gone missing in worrying ABS data blackhole
Topic Started: 8 Oct 2014, 06:31 PM (1,301 Views)
Sydneyite
Member Avatar


So given the removal of seasonal adjustments for Jul/Aug & Sep, what do people think today's print of the unemployment rate will end up being? I reckon it will be about 6.0% +/- 1%. And the revisions will result in a fairly flat trend over the past 3/4 months as well.
Edited by Sydneyite, 9 Oct 2014, 09:55 AM.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Elastic
Member Avatar


Well I'm definitely not expecting any large numbers either way. That would be embarassing.
Only a rat can win a rat race.

Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
b_b
Default APF Avatar


Sydneyite
9 Oct 2014, 09:31 AM
So given the removal of seasonal adjustments for Jul/Aug & Sep, what do people think today's print of the unemployment rate will end up being? I reckon it will be about 6.0% +/- 1%. And the revisions will result in a fairtly flat trend over the past 3/4 months as well.
I agree with elastic. I think they have done everything in their power to make the number look as moderate as possible - hence the release yesterday. Unemployment rate unchanged.
Edited by b_b, 9 Oct 2014, 09:50 AM.
(S – I) + (T - G) + (M - X) = 0
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Guest
Unregistered

Sydneyite
9 Oct 2014, 09:31 AM
So given the removal of seasonal adjustments for Jul/Aug & Sep, what do people think today's print of the unemployment rate will end up being? I reckon it will be about 6.0% +/- 1%. And the revisions will result in a fairtly flat trend over the past 3/4 months as well.
The trend is very very clear, unemployment has been rising for some time, despite any of these complete bullshit numbers put forward by these clowns.

The reasons are also very very clear,its because of two main things, the first being that our focus has been on directing ever increasing percentages of our pay into housing and away from the overall economy for around forty years. And this has eventually destoyed our economy . People putting more into housing and less into the real economy just destroys jobs, exactly what is needed to purchase or rent housing or support it moving forward.

The second reason is, that our wages are so high, by any world standards, that we are no longer able to compete with cheap overseas labour and our jobs are simply being swallowed up as a result of the obvious. This will just continue with our wages being where they are, no rocket science.

So the trend is very very clear. And with no obviuos answers to address this, it will simply continue .And with no obviuos answers that would not involve something drastic like cutting our wages in a major way that will destroy our economy quite rapidly, they will simply leave wages pretty much around where they are, so will simply destroy the economy at a slower rate over a longer period.

"REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Dr Watson
Member Avatar


Elastic
9 Oct 2014, 09:35 AM
Well I'm definitely not expecting any large numbers either way. That would be embarassing.
Somebody once said that measuring economics is mostly a matter of looking out the window. In times such as this, where the senior statistician has lost credibility, it might be appropriate to ignore ABS prints ... and look out the window. Do you personally know people who have recently lost their job, or got a job, or can't find a job? Are things getting better or worse in your circle? It might be time to revert to anecdotal evidence if we can't trust the spreadsheets. There's no reason anecdotal evidence can't play a part in our investment decision-making.
Edited by Dr Watson, 9 Oct 2014, 10:02 AM.
The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt — Bertrand Russell
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Ex BP Golly
Member Avatar


Dr Watson
9 Oct 2014, 10:01 AM
Somebody once said that measuring economics is mostly a matter of looking out the window. In times such as this, where the senior statistician has lost credibility, it might be appropriate to ignore ABS prints ... and look out the window. Do you personally know people who have recently lost their job, or got a job, or can't find a job? Are things getting better or worse in your circle? It might be time to revert to anecdotal evidence if we can't trust the spreadsheets. There's no reason anecdotal evidence can't play a part in our investment decision-making.
As stated here and on bubblepedia, I lost confidence in ABS stats over three years ago.

Im suprised anyone takes them seriously.
WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
Share a cot with Milton?
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
ZetaBoards - Free Forum Hosting
Free Forums with no limits on posts or members.
Learn More · Register for Free
« Previous Topic · Australian Property Forum · Next Topic »
Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
  • 2



Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.

Forum Rules: The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.

Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.

Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.

This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.

For more information go to Limitations on Exclusive Rights: Fair Use

Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ

Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy