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WA Iron Ore Exports Tumble.; Chinese Demand Plunges.
Topic Started: 7 Oct 2014, 07:30 PM (6,830 Views)
szokolay
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Veritas
8 Oct 2014, 02:33 PM
skamy
8 Oct 2014, 01:07 AM
So is this the late
Skamy. I'm going to show you two charts. the first is iron ore exports from Oz ( WA in effect).

The second is Perth house prices. Please explain to me how the two are not linked?


That chart of Perth from 2005 onward tells it all. Anyone who bought an investment property there on an interest only loan in the last decade has probably done their deposit. When the loan reverts there is hardly a chance the low perth rents will cover it. They will be forced to pour money in from their dayjob, propping up a losing bet. I have seen that done many many times, so sad.
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Veritas
8 Oct 2014, 02:33 PM
Skamy. I'm going to show you two charts. the first is iron ore exports from Oz ( WA in effect).

The second is Perth house prices. Please explain to me how the two are not linked? :re:

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So if a graph of kit kat sales looked a bit like perth house prices you would also demand we prove they aren't linked.
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Lef-tee
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You Eastern Staters must be quaking in your boots as all these jobs you think are going to be lost.


If you're referring to jobs in coal mining, I guess you missed where a large number of layoffs were just announced from central Queensland mines.

More likely you saw it but are ignoring it in the hope that it will go away.
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newjez
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those
8 Oct 2014, 06:28 PM
You are getting distracted by this idea that you can or cannot control price. That is not the point.

The point is to compare the current conditions to past conditions. If you plot prices on a graph for anything you don't then delete all your past data and only keep one data point just because you can no longer buy/sell for those prices.

If my bread analogy was confusing, I apologise. The point of that was just to show the difference between real scenarios and fake ones. I guess it didn't help that in my analogy both real life prices were possible simultaneously.
I understand what you are saying and I agree with that.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

herbie
7 Oct 2014, 08:07 PM
... "Vale's decision of constructing a fleet of 400,000-ton ore carriers has been widely criticized by other shipping companies. The new Valemax ships, expected to cut the company's transportation costs by 20–25%, are blamed for driving down the freight rates for the entire industry, swelling the already oversupplied bulk transportation market and stalling the recovery of the shipping business after the financial crisis.

The freight rates, down 80% from 2008, are expected to drop further down to the levels of 1977. According to the chief executive of BIMCO, the Valemax vessels could displace up to 168 150,000–180,000-ton capesize bulk carriers, around 15% of the existing fleet, from the long haul voyages and force them to less profitable shorter routes. Vale has responded to the criticism by stating that the company aims to permanently cut the costs of Atlantic-Pacific dry bulk shipping to make Brazilian ore more competitive against iron ore produced in Australia, which is closer to major customers in Asia.

Vale has also faced opposition from the China Shipowners' Association which claim that the Brazilian mining company is seeking to control the freight market as it has already done with the iron ore prices. In the past the Chinese ports were not allowed to increase their capacity to more than 300,000 tons for dry bulk carriers due to safety and environmental concerns, and if the 400,000-ton Valemax vessels are allowed to Chinese ports, Vale's monopoly on the route may result in losses for other shipping companies operating capesize ore carriers. Also, when Vale Brasil was diverted to Italy on her maiden voyage, there was speculation that the domestic steel industry of China had urged the authorities to protect their commercial interests. However, Vale has also received support from the Chinese steel companies as they would benefit from lower transportation costs.

As a precaution against prolonged ban of Valemax vessels from the Chinese ports, Vale started constructing both land- and offshore-based transshipment hubs where iron ore can be loaded to smaller ships for final delivery." (bold mine) ...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valemax

And BHP is gunna cut costs:

https://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2014/10/6/resources-and-energy/bhps-robot-army-will-cut-costs

Oh well, there goes a few more highish paid (Aussie/Perth) jobs.

And to add to our 'joy', I saw something just today as I recall(?) about some super fund dumping coal from their books due to their perceived risk of the high risk of it being perceived as dirty/naughty given Kev Rudd's Greatest Threat To Humankind In The Last Million Years or whatever it was, type concern. (Tho' can't be bothered sourcing the link.)

why not just move the steel smelter to the iron ore mine, then you will ship 99% iron rather than 62%, no build a bigger ship :D

Dumb and dumber.

Peter
http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/n/2/1/u/8/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1456285515560.png
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Veritas
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8 Oct 2014, 09:22 PM
So if a graph of kit kat sales looked a bit like perth house prices you would also demand we prove they aren't linked.
If you are suggesting that the mining boom and perth's housing boom arent linked you are wrong.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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newjez
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Mustapha Mond
9 Oct 2014, 01:24 AM
why not just move the steel smelter to the iron ore mine, then you will ship 99% iron rather than 62%, no build a bigger ship :D

Dumb and dumber.

Peter
Seriously, there are much worse examples than that.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Dr Watson
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Attached to this post:
Attachments: Dalian.jpg (40.59 KB)
Attachments: Rebar_Average.jpg (32.55 KB)
Attachments: Iron_ore_spot.jpg (41.76 KB)
Edited by Dr Watson, 9 Oct 2014, 07:44 AM.
The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt — Bertrand Russell
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newjez
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Dr Watson
9 Oct 2014, 07:38 AM
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You may need to update those graphs. It's taking another dive.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Blondie girl
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DumbBlondieGirl
8 Oct 2014, 05:18 PM
Huh?........there was no implication - of course you cant sell now at 130 - that is why conditions are worse...........

those has it spot on........Mike at his spruiktastic best suggested that conditions now are better than last year because volume has increased........I simply pointed out that is not the case........end of



And Blondie - not an impersonator been reading and posting for years........you just come up with some funny statements sometimes :bye: ......one day ill sign up
Well played honey
Well played.

I do admire how you reiterated the fact that fe couldn't be sold at 130. :)

Yes, I do some word pun, sometimes I don't make myself clear when I post when I'm not focused, but you shouldn't underestimate that I don't have neurons most times.

Yes I do have the guts to say when I'm wrong...unlike some others on here.

Do register if you wish.
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$
It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged
Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do.
Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
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