Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]


Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
  • 2
  • 7
WA Iron Ore Exports Tumble.; Chinese Demand Plunges.
Topic Started: 7 Oct 2014, 07:30 PM (6,832 Views)
those
Member Avatar


Guest
7 Oct 2014, 08:20 PM
Wrong.

You would rather sell 30 at $80 than 23 at $80. You don't get the choice to sell it at $130.
Wrong.

When I go to woolies I can buy 1 bread for $3.80 or 2 breads for $6.00. Buying 1 bread for $3.00 was never an option, but you claim it was. You say 1 bread for $3.80 isn't an option, but it was.

You're making up fantasies that never happened and suggesting that a scenario that actually happened isn't a possibility.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
skamy
Member Avatar


Perthite
7 Oct 2014, 07:30 PM
So is this the latest thing that you believe will cause a crash in the Perth property market?

Will you go on doing this forever?

Don't you get sick of it, always hoping that each bit of bad news will lead to a catastrophe and always disappointed.

The Perth property market is not hog tied to iron ore shipments to China.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
newjez
Member Avatar


those
8 Oct 2014, 12:43 AM
Wrong.

When I go to woolies I can buy 1 bread for $3.80 or 2 breads for $6.00. Buying 1 bread for $3.00 was never an option, but you claim it was. You say 1 bread for $3.80 isn't an option, but it was.

You're making up fantasies that never happened and suggesting that a scenario that actually happened isn't a possibility.
Try selling a tonne of iron ore for $130 and let me know how you get on.
skamy
8 Oct 2014, 01:07 AM
So is this the latest thing that you believe will cause a crash in the Perth property market?

Will you go on doing this forever?

Don't you get sick of it, always hoping that each bit of bad news will lead to a catastrophe and always disappointed.

The Perth property market is not hog tied to iron ore shipments to China.
Strongly linked though.
Edited by newjez, 8 Oct 2014, 03:51 AM.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Dr Watson
Member Avatar


Posted Image
Attached to this post:
Attachments: IronOreSpot.jpg (40.82 KB)
Edited by Dr Watson, 8 Oct 2014, 07:18 AM.
The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt — Bertrand Russell
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Veritas
Default APF Avatar


skamy
8 Oct 2014, 01:07 AM
So is this the latest thing that you believe will cause a crash in the Perth property market?

Will you go on doing this forever?

Don't you get sick of it, always hoping that each bit of bad news will lead to a catastrophe and always disappointed.

The Perth property market is not hog tied to iron ore shipments to China.
Skamy. I'm going to show you two charts. the first is iron ore exports from Oz ( WA in effect).

The second is Perth house prices. Please explain to me how the two are not linked? :re:

Posted Image

Posted Image



Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
those
Member Avatar


newjez
8 Oct 2014, 03:50 AM
Try selling a tonne of iron ore for $130 and let me know how you get on.
Do you think you have an actual point? And if you do think you have a point, do you think you can put it into words, or is it just a feeling?

Let me try to help.

Real Life Scenario 1: Business sells 23M tons for $130/ton = $2,990M
Real Life Scenario 2: Business sells 30M tons for $80/ton = $2,400M
Imaginery Scenario 1: Business sells 23M tons for $80/ton = $1,840M

Paraphrasing Statement on above scenarios from Mike:
When businesses compare Real Life Scenarios 1 and 2, I think they would prefer Real Life Scenario 2 because 30 is 25% higher than 23. Quantity sold is what really matters. So current conditions are better than conditions from 1 year ago for the business.

Paraphrasing Statement on above scenarios from DumbBlondieGirl:
Nah, I think they would prefer Real Life Scenario 1 over Real Life Scenario 2. End dollar result is what really matters. So current conditions are worse than 1 year ago for the business.

Paraphrasing others:
Wrong dumbblondiegirl, Mike can compare Real Life Scenario 1 to Real Life Scenario 2, but you can only compare Real Life Scenario 2 to Imaginary Scenario 1. Why? Well, go ahead and try to sell for $130/ton and see what happens. I think i did a poopoo in my pants. Do you have a tissue? Are you thoroughly distracted now? Ok, see you later.
Edited by those, 8 Oct 2014, 12:55 PM.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
skamy
Member Avatar


Veritas
8 Oct 2014, 12:34 PM
Skamy. I'm going to show you two charts. the first is iron ore exports from Oz ( WA in effect).

The second is Perth house prices. Please explain to me how the two are not linked? :re:



In order to explain to you how the two graphs are definitely not linked, I have superimposed them. This should make it easier to see how iron ore prices have little or no correlation with Perth property prices.


Posted Image




2002-2004 iron ore dropped for two years house prices rose for two years.
2008-2009 Iron ore nearly tripled in price, house prices fell
2010 house prices rise iron ore tanks.
2011-2012 iron ore booms house prices fall and stagnate


Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Mike
Default APF Avatar


those
8 Oct 2014, 12:54 PM
Do you think you have an actual point? And if you do think you have a point, do you think you can put it into words, or is it just a feeling?

Let me try to help.

Real Life Scenario 1: Business sells 23M tons for $130/ton = $2,990M
Real Life Scenario 2: Business sells 30M tons for $80/ton = $2,400M
Imaginery Scenario 1: Business sells 23M tons for $80/ton = $1,840M

Paraphrasing Statement on above scenarios from Mike:
When businesses compare Real Life Scenarios 1 and 2, I think they would prefer Real Life Scenario 2 because 30 is 25% higher than 23. Quantity sold is what really matters. So current conditions are better than conditions from 1 year ago for the business.

Paraphrasing Statement on above scenarios from DumbBlondieGirl:
Nah, I think they would prefer Real Life Scenario 1 over Real Life Scenario 2. End dollar result is what really matters. So current conditions are worse than 1 year ago for the business.

Paraphrasing others:
Wrong dumbblondiegirl, Mike can compare Real Life Scenario 1 to Real Life Scenario 2, but you can only compare Real Life Scenario 2 to Imaginary Scenario 1. Why? Well, go ahead and try to sell for $130/ton and see what happens. I think i did a poopoo in my pants. Do you have a tissue? Are you thoroughly distracted now? Ok, see you later.
Yes correct in the very short term however.

BHP & Rio Tinto are ramping up production with the stated goal of sending higher producers out of the market. BHP and Rio want to see large numbers of Chinese & Indian mines bankrupted and closed. This increase the seaborne trade of which Australian producers are the most efficient in the world with BHP and Rio leading the charge.

BHP and Rio intend to try and form an almost monopoly on the market using there huge cost efficiency and quality of product to great advantage. It is a smart play, I would do the same.

BHP is aiming for a production cost per ton of $20 and Rio currently has a production cost of around $30 a ton.

The mines in India and China are not profitable at $90-100 a ton so keeping the price lower for longer reduces supply from competitors. This in the medium to longer terms means higher prices and volumes for Rio and BHP.

It will be interesting to watch this unfold, look out for news of Chinese and India mines closing down in the future as a sign it is working.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Lef-tee
Default APF Avatar


Perthite
7 Oct 2014, 09:05 PM
You just get the fact that it was.

Get used to the new reality. The boom ended in all forms.
Just came home from a weeks dig at my sapphire claims - the highway runs parallel to the main coal railway line to Gladstone from the huge mines in the Emerald/Blackwater area (hundreds of kms).

A few years ago, my mate from Adelaide came out with us and counted the coal haulage trains on the way - there were heaps (can't remember exact number). 12 months ago he came with us again and counted a very significant decline. Last week I counted three on the way out and three on the way home.

As Perthite says - the boom is over people. Unless there is a staggering turnaround very soon.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
skamy
Member Avatar


those
8 Oct 2014, 12:54 PM
Do you think you have an actual point? And if you do think you have a point, do you think you can put it into words, or is it just a feeling?

Let me try to help.

Real Life Scenario 1: Business sells 23M tons for $130/ton = $2,990M
Real Life Scenario 2: Business sells 30M tons for $80/ton = $2,400M
Imaginery Scenario 1: Business sells 23M tons for $80/ton = $1,840M

The point is that the cost of production has plummeted. The big miners have an opportunity to dominate the market and prevent investment in Africa, Iran etc, which will have long term upsides for them.

Quote:
 
It (Rio Tinto) and BHP are engaged in a program of massive expansions, even as demand from China cools, in a deliberate attempt to sideline smaller higher cost producers,
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-10-08/glencore-has-long-harboured-rio-tinto-merger-ambitions/5798292


Glencore was whinging the other day about its African investments
Quote:
 
Mr Glasenberg said the huge amount of iron-ore being produced by the world's three biggest miners Vale SA, Rio Tinto PLC and BHP Billiton, was already having a clear impact on prices, and that further expanding output, as BHP Billiton said on Monday it intends to do, would make investing in African iron-ore a less appealing prospect.[url[http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-10-08/glencore-has-long-harboured-rio-tinto-merger-ambitions/5798292[/url]
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
ZetaBoards - Free Forum Hosting
Join the millions that use us for their forum communities. Create your own forum today.
Go to Next Page
« Previous Topic · Australian Property Forum · Next Topic »
Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
  • 2
  • 7



Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.

Forum Rules: The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.

Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.

Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.

This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.

For more information go to Limitations on Exclusive Rights: Fair Use

Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ

Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy