Australian housing Ponzi prepares for implosion. Two million could people default in months.; More than 2 million Aussies at risk of default in next twelve months
Tweet Topic Started: 5 Oct 2014, 09:48 PM (4,313 Views)
I got in from SK on Saturday morning and in the afternoon we took the kids down to Mandurah for fish and chips at Nino's Dolphin Quay.
Now bearing in mind that it is the school holidays, the weather was excellent and it was peak hours for eating out (between 5 and 7pm), the place was pretty dead.
Parking was easy, all the restaurants were practically empty and Nino's was also doing happy hour on drinks (beer for $4.95 a pint between 5 and 6 and decent MR white wines at $3.00 a glass).
Back last year in spring you had to fight for a table at any of the eateries and they certainly wouldn't be flogging beer at half price during peak hour to pull in the punters.
Something has changed.
yes, the game has changed.
Buyers be aware.
Peter
Bell
6 Oct 2014, 04:40 PM
I have to agree with you on that one. Perth is collapsing so bad this year. I mean, I've never seen it so bad in 15 years.
We are currently offering 2 months free rent at current rates if people sign up for 12 months.
I did advise a few people to get out of the market start of the year. Some did and some didnt saying 'capital growth will save me'
I told them they will lose about 2% per 1/4 this year but they didnt believe me on top of the vacancy rate double/tripling.
Now its happened and the ones that sold are sitting on 100k more than the ones that didnt. The worst one I have is a property thats been empty for 3 months now because no one will rent it. I've dropped the price 30% and still nothing. Its better to lose 30k in stamp duty than 100k in capital growth.
I feel bad for the people who genuinely need to sell. The owner occupiers who need an extra room or need another toilet. They are the ones really getting shafted by this bubble and will be left holding the ball. If it gets any worst investors will simply sell and move onto the next big thing and leave the people who cant sell holding the ball and paying off all the capital growth they have extracted.
They just do not know.
Good luck.
Peter
i will look at buying back in at 50% "real" decline from 2007 prices.
Mustapha Mond
6 Oct 2014, 11:48 PM
yes, the game has changed.
Buyers be aware.
Peter They just do not know.
Good luck.
Peter
i will look at buying back in at 50% "real" decline from 2007 prices.
My latest project is getting me property at the same price it sold for 16 years ago.
I have no idea what the real price of that adjusted for inflation is.
Small bills and credit cards are being defaulted on because household funds are going into the mortgage. What we need to know is how many if these people at risk of default have mortgages.
If a large percentage do then it would reaffirm my assertion that they are paying the mortgage but defaulting on associated cost and living off credit cards which they are also defaulting on.
You may as well talk to a brick wall.
Notice your state was the only one covered in red.
We will say you believe the data from my thread here, as I noticed you started another thread on nz using the vega sourse.
Dont you get it Peter, people are struggling and cannot pay bills. When they are in trouble, which bills do youthink they pay first, the mortage or car loan, the mortgage or gas bill.
You see Peter, you know, like we ALL do here, that the mortgage is the first bill paid and evrything else comes second. So its these unpaid bills we are seeing build up. Only a matter of time before the mortgage is next.
But you want to pretend its not about mortgages and about evrything else.
Good luck with that joke Peter ...
Did not see you discuss my comments in franks thread on interest rates, or make any of your own, WHY NOT ?
Notice your state was the only one covered in red.
We will say you believe the data from my thread here, as I noticed you started another thread on nz using the vega sourse.
Dont you get it Peter, people are struggling and cannot pay bills. When they are in trouble, which bills do youthink they pay first, the mortage or car loan, the mortgage or gas bill.
You see Peter, you know, like we ALL do here, that the mortgage is the first bill paid and evrything else comes second. So its these unpaid bills we are seeing build up. Only a matter of time before the mortgage is next.
But you want to pretend its not about mortgages and about evrything else.
Good luck with that joke Peter ...
Did not see you discuss my comments in franks thread on interest rates, or make any of your own, WHY NOT ?
Ted there are a few posters whose words I rarely read, and you are one of them for obvious reasons.
The insinuation from you is that it's home owners who are struggling. I don't doubt that some of those home owners are struggling, that's always been the case for some, but only 1.35% of home owners are 30 days behind in their repayments, and if a home owner is struggling and they have equity in their house they can be easily assisted by consolidating their debts.
In the case of a non-home owner who is struggling, they still have to pay their rent and they have zero chance of being able to consolidate their debts. Without professional help they will probably end up in bankruptcy.
Tell me Ted, if it's as you say and more people are struggling, then why are personal bankruptcy rates falling?
Ted there are a few posters whose words I rarely read, and you are one of them for obvious reasons.
The insinuation from you is that it's home owners who are struggling. I don't doubt that some of those home owners are struggling, that's always been the case for some, but only 1.35% of home owners are 30 days behind in their repayments, and if a home owner is struggling and they have equity in their house they can be easily assisted by consolidating their debts.
In the case of a non-home owner who is struggling, they still have to pay their rent and they have zero chance of being able to consolidate their debts. Without professional help they will probably end up in bankruptcy.
Tell me Ted, if it's as you say and more people are struggling, then why are personal bankruptcy rates falling?
Seems you respond when you think you can, but just walk away on the too hard ones. Typical bull. Bears will get on ANY thread and comment. When there are many threads that bulls steer well clear of. Says a lot really, a fact on afp.
People are struggling Peter, whether they have a mortgage or rent. And as you say people always have to some extent, but not to the extent they do now, with huge debt loads and little job security now.
You want to post us a graph of bankrupt stats and ask me why have they declined. No rocket science Peter. Many were flushed out when the GFC arrived, then many were flushed out again 2011 and 2012 after the prior interest rate rises. And since then record low rates have stemmed more losses for now.
It was simply a case of having a shitload at one stage, and there was merely a decline from the then high after rates dropped, no rocket science Peter.But we can see they are still high from historical measures.
Just a slight retreat from an extreme high after interest rates rose and then declined to record lows.
A thought one comment was interesting in the article Peter, the one that claimed 16 million aussies were using credit. Its seems like a complete load of shit to me, that would mean evry single person over 16 or something would have debt. But its shows so many have debt and this is the hinderance for us moving forward from here. Your debt loving ways have gone way way to far , and are now the downfall or our economy, both now and for a very very long time. Not you seem to understand this, as obvious as it is.
A thought one comment was interesting in the article Peter, the one that claimed 16 million aussies were using credit. Its seems like a complete load of shit to me, that would mean evry single person over 16 or something would have debt.
Ted the whole article is a complete load of BS. There will be an uptick in WA though. We will have to wait and see how WA pans out.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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