Nickel prices rose the most in five months on concerns that China’s nickel pig iron output will scale back at prices below USD7/lb, in line with what we outlined in our recent nickel study. China’s nickel pig iron sector accounts for ~20-25% of world nickel output. Other base metals and crude oil benchmarks rose on demand hopes as US consumer confidence climbed higher than expected in October. Iron ore fell by 0.4% to USD79.22/t (CFR China).
Freeport-McMoRan has reported a fall in output at its Grasberg copper and gold mine in Indonesia after a large percentage of openpit miners did not return to work on safety concerns. This follows a fatal accident on 27 September, and is despite authorities giving the all clear for work to restart on 13 October. Union representatives for miners at Grasberg have signalled intent to strike for 30 days beginning on 6 November. Grasberg is the world’s third-largest copper mine.
Member mills of the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) – typically between 80% and 85% of China’s total steel capacity – produced an average of 1.76Mt/d of crude steel from 10-20 October, down 2% from the previous ten days.
The former director of research at OPEC, Adnan Shihab-Eldin, believes USD80/bbl is still high enough to encourage investment in the oil and gas sector. He also believes that Brent crude oil prices could average USD70-80/bbl for a while.
US coal miner, Arch Coal, still sees metallurgical coal markets in oversupply. The company has maintained coal sales guidance of 5.7- 6.3Mt for this year.
The average cost of iron ore should be very close to the cost of production of the most inefficient supplier. So, contrary to the delusional beliefs that prices will rise when marginal producers close, prices are actually going to drop as those marginal producers close. The more the marginal producers cut costs, the lower the iron ore price will go. They cannot win. This is why they are marginal, marginal in every single way imaginable. The marginal producer chases the delusion of a short-term price bubble and forgets that he is marginal on the longer term average. A lot of the fools watching him, make the same mistake.
I don't have to run faster than the lion. I just have to run faster than you.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
SINGAPORE, Oct 28 (Reuters) - Iron ore futures fell for the second session running on Tuesday amid plentiful supply and slow demand ahead of temporary shutdowns or output cuts by Chinese mills as Beijing strives to curb pollution during an APEC meeting in Beijing next month. Some steel mills in Hebei, China's top steel-producing province, have been asked to reduce or suspend production during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit on Nov. 7-12 to help improve air quality in the capital. "We would expect modest steel production cuts for 2-3 weeks as part of efforts to 'clean Beijing's air' for the APEC meetings," Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Lachlan Shaw said in a research note. "This should reduce iron ore demand in the immediate term and likely mute the expected seasonal restocking into China's winter." Iron ore for May delivery on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was down nearly 1 percent at 523 yuan ($86) a tonne by midday. The December iron ore contract on the Singapore Exchange dropped 0.3 percent to $78.73 a tonne. Iron ore for immediate delivery to China .IO62-CNI=SI eased 0.3 percent to $79.60 a tonne on Monday, according to data compiled by The Steel Index. That was not far off the September trough of $77.50, which was the lowest price for iron ore since 2009. "There's plenty of available supply in the market so nobody's in a hurry to look for a cargo or jump at an offer," said an iron ore trader in Shanghai. "We are very cautious on taking any long-term contracts right now because the market is very uncertain," said the trader, adding his company had received a couple of offers from suppliers in Australia and Brazil. Iron ore has fallen 40 percent this year as big, low-cost miners in Australia and Brazil mined record volumes of iron ore to ship more to top market China, where steel demand was growing at a slower rate. Helping put a floor under iron ore prices was a sustained fall in stocks of imported iron ore at China's ports as mills sought out smaller cargoes, traders said. Stockpiles of iron ore at China's major ports dropped by 850,000 tonnes from a week before to 107.05 million tonnes as of Oct. 24 SH-TOT-IRONINV, data from industry consultancy SteelHome showed. That was the lowest port inventory level since March.
Base metals finished mostly higher on demand hopes after China’s cabinet said it will support demand in six industries, including real estate development. Gold futures fell as the appeal of the precious metals as an inflation hedge softened after the US Federal Reserve ended its bond-purchase program. Iron ore fell 0.2% to USD79.09/t (CFR China).
The target for full production of the Indonesia Deepwater Development (IDD) gas project has been delayed two years to 2020, boosting the chances that Indonesia may become a net gas importer.
OPEC’s Secretary General, Abdalla El-Badri, estimates that at current crude oil prices, as much as half of tight crude oil supply is losing money. He also said OPEC will need to produce between 29mb/d and 30mb/d next year to meet world crude oil demand. OPEC, which accounts for ~40% of world crude oil supply, currently has a crude oil output target of 30mb/d.
The US Federal Reserve has ended its quantitative easing program of asset purchases. The Fed says interest rates will stay near zero for a "considerable period" but the language of the statement is more ‘hawkish’ (ie it suggests rates may rise earlier than originally expected by economists). The Fed said "underutilization of labor resources is gradually diminishing", as opposed to the previous statement where it noted "there remains significant underutilization of labor resources".
Asking which company's are making a profit is a stupid question? Is there some magic way that I can turn a profit without making more money than I spend?
I'm genuinely curious but it seems to have you all stumped which is surprising reading some of the big claims on here
You are asking the very wrong people.
Read & get feedback from those who get it.. Beyond the forum.
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$ It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do. Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
ConocoPhillips, a major oil producer, has announced that it will reduce spending in some emerging North American oil fields in response to lower crude oil prices. The company still expects to boost oil output by 5% a year despite the lower spending.
Precious metals led commodity prices mostly lower as the USD strengthened after the US economy grew faster than expected in 3Q14. Gold futures fell below USD1,200/oz, a key support level in the last couple of years. The USD lifted earlier this week when the US Fed decided to end its bond purchasing program. Iron ore rose by 0.9% to USD79.82/t (CFR China).
Vale, the world’s largest iron ore producer, reported a surprise loss in 3Q14 due to a weaker Brazilian real boosting US-denominated debt and weaker iron ore prices. The company’s exports of iron ore and pellets fell by 6.6% y/y to 78.1Mt in 3Q14. Vale’s nickel sales volumes rose by 15% to 71kt in the quarter.
According to All India Gems and Jewellery Trade Federation, India’s gold imports likely fell from 95t in September to 50-60t in October due to weaker demand post India’s Diwali festival. India’s gold imports are expected to lift in November due to wedding season demand.
Chinese research firm, Antaike, forecast China’s copper smelting and refining capacity to lift 12% y/y to 6.25Mt and 8.2% y/y to 10.56Mt, respectively, in 2015. The firm expects China’s refined copper consumption to increase 6% to 9.24Mt in 2015 due to power industry demand.
The average cost of iron ore should be very close to the cost of production of the most inefficient supplier. So, contrary to the delusional beliefs that prices will rise when marginal producers close, prices are actually going to drop as those marginal producers close. The more the marginal producers cut costs, the lower the iron ore price will go. They cannot win. This is why they are marginal, marginal in every single way imaginable. The marginal producer chases the delusion of a short-term price bubble and forgets that he is marginal on the longer term average. A lot of the fools watching him, make the same mistake.
So taking out supply doesn't matter? What ever happened to supply and demand. I fear your nickname is the truth.
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