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German house prices - how it should be
Topic Started: 30 Sep 2014, 11:17 PM (7,288 Views)
ThePauk
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miw
2 Oct 2014, 06:52 PM
There's no evidence that it does. Why would a very low CGT that almost never gets triggered, taxes that are not much different from a lot of other places and transfer costs that are about the same as everywhere else be any kind of secret sauce?

Especially when the answer is as plain as day in demographics and geography?
Mmmm,the German population was rising from 1991 to 2004

Posted Image

I thought Peter stated the population has been falling for decades now. Guess he was wrong again.
miw
2 Oct 2014, 06:52 PM
There's no evidence that it does. Why would a very low CGT that almost never gets triggered, taxes that are not much different from a lot of other places and transfer costs that are about the same as everywhere else be any kind of secret sauce?

Especially when the answer is as plain as day in demographics and geography?
Mmmm, average hold time in OZ is less than 10 years.

http://pages.e.rpdata.com/Property-owners-holding-on%20to-their-homes-for-longer/

And according to Michael, investors are even worse
"According to Mr Matusik’s findings, about 25% of the investors decided to sell within 12 months of purchasing the property and 50% sold within five years"
http://www.equiti.com.au/who-is-the-adverage-australian-property-title/
Edited by ThePauk, 2 Oct 2014, 07:53 PM.
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miw
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ThePauk
2 Oct 2014, 07:36 PM
Mmmm,the German population was rising from 1991 to 2004

Posted Image
So? It is shrinking now. Also you'll note the rate of population growth was very slow, even though the graph carefully starts in 1991 when the 5 new states which have a slightly higher fertility rate joined.

The fact remains that the relatively stable price of housing has far more to do with a very low demand for new housing compared to the English-speaking world than with any of the other factors you are throwing around.

The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
AREPS™
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ThePauk
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miw
2 Oct 2014, 08:38 PM
So? It is shrinking now. Also you'll note the rate of population growth was very slow, even though the graph carefully starts in 1991 when the 5 new states which have a slightly higher fertility rate joined.

The fact remains that the relatively stable price of housing has far more to do with a very low demand for new housing compared to the English-speaking world than with any of the other factors you are throwing around.
Fail on both counts...
The demand has been low as the population grew as the banks demand a 70% LVR, robust anti-specualtion measures, pro tenant laws and regulations and a very high social building program.

Perhaps you should trust the Dept of Stats in Germany?
https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/SocietyState/Population/CurrentPopulation/Tables/Census_SexAndCitizenship.html#tab588080No3
80,327,000 people in 2011 and in 2013, 80,767,000
To me that is growing now, even if it is projected to fall in the future.
Edited by ThePauk, 2 Oct 2014, 08:46 PM.
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peter fraser
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ThePauk
2 Oct 2014, 07:36 PM
Mmmm,the German population was rising from 1991 to 2004

I thought Peter stated the population has been falling for decades now. Guess he was wrong again.

Stop lying. I gave you a graph from the world bank that shows the slight growth during that period that your chart covers, but the general population growth in Germany has been quite weak unlike our population growth rate.

http://www.google.com.au/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=sp_pop_grow&idim=country:DEU:USA:FRA&hl=en&dl=en
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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ThePauk
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peter fraser
2 Oct 2014, 08:53 PM
Stop lying. I gave you a graph from the world bank that shows the slight growth during that period that your chart covers, but the general population growth in Germany has been quite weak unlike our population growth rate.

http://www.google.com.au/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=sp_pop_grow&idim=country:DEU:USA:FRA&hl=en&dl=en
You stated they have a shrinking population. They do not at the moment.
"With a shrinking population..." FAIL!

http://australianpropertyforum.com/single/?p=8510998&t=10185872


Over the longer time frame for you to digest...
http://www.google.com.au/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=sp_pop_totl&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=region&idim=country:DEU:AUS&ifdim=region&hl=en&dl=en&ind=false
Edited by ThePauk, 2 Oct 2014, 09:07 PM.
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peter fraser
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ThePauk
2 Oct 2014, 09:03 PM
http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=gm&v=21

Paul your own graph confirms that the population has barely moved in 40 years. Don't you look at your own charts?
Edited by peter fraser, 2 Oct 2014, 09:18 PM.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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miw
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ThePauk
2 Oct 2014, 08:44 PM
Fail on both counts...
The demand has been low as the population grew as the banks demand a 70% LVR, robust anti-specualtion measures, pro tenant laws and regulations and a very high social building program.

Perhaps you should trust the Dept of Stats in Germany?
https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/SocietyState/Population/CurrentPopulation/Tables/Census_SexAndCitizenship.html#tab588080No3
80,327,000 people in 2011 and in 2013, 80,767,000
To me that is growing now, even if it is projected to fall in the future.
OK. Population stable this year shrinking next year? The fact remains that percentage-wise, the population has grown in 23 years as much as it grows 2 years in Australia, and the population of almost all the states is falling.

1. No. There is no social building program in Germany. Quite the opposite in fact. Social housing is gradually being knocked down and replaced with Wohngeld, very similar to Australia's rental assistance programme. There were 2,470,605 Sozialwohnungen in Germany on 31/12/2002 and 1,662,147 on 31/12/2010.

2. Typical deposit required is 20%, but there are 100% loans available as well, and even IO loans.

3. Housing in Germany is not cheap. Despite the fact that people live in much tinier spaces than in oz, Germans on average spend slightly more of their disposable income on housing.

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The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
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ThePauk
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peter fraser
2 Oct 2014, 09:14 PM
http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=gm&v=21

Paul your own graph confirms that the population has barely moved in 40 years. Don't you look at your own charts?
You stated shrinking, and it is not. Seems you can not admit when you are wrong Peter. Noted.


MIW
"The key to the story is that German municipal authorities consistently increase housing supply by releasing land for development on a regular basis. The ultimate driver is a central government policy of providing financial support to municipalities based on an up-to-date and accurate count of the number of residents in each area.

The German system moreover is deliberately structured to encourage renting rather than owning. Tenants enjoy strong rights and, provided they pay their rent, are virtually immune from eviction and even from significant rent increases.

Meanwhile demand for owner occupation is curbed by German regulation. German banks, for instance, are rarely permitted to lend more than 80 percent of the value of a property, thus a would-be home buyer first needs to accumulate a deposit of at least 20 percent. To cap it all, ownership of a home is subject to a serious consumption tax, while landlords are encouraged by favorable tax treatment to maximize the availability of rental properties."

http://www.forbes.com/sites/eamonnfingleton/2014/02/02/in-worlds-best-run-economy-home-prices-just-keep-falling-because-thats-what-home-prices-are-supposed-to-do/
Edited by ThePauk, 2 Oct 2014, 09:27 PM.
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herbie
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peter fraser
2 Oct 2014, 09:14 PM
http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=gm&v=21

Paul your own graph confirms that the population has barely moved in 40 years. Don't you look at your own charts?
The dude should just change his name to "ThePorkie" and be done with it.
Edited by herbie, 2 Oct 2014, 09:32 PM.
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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peter fraser
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ThePauk
2 Oct 2014, 09:23 PM
You stated shrinking, and it is not. Seems you can not admit when you are wrong Peter. Noted.
If you can't see a shrinking population over recent years in this graph then you will be the only one who can't

http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=gm&v=21

The point is that the population hasn't grown to any meaningful degree in 40 years. That means the rate of construction needed to maintain supply really only had to keep up with the demolition rate. That is a different ballgame to Australia. Your insistence that it isn't so is dishonest.

Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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