No, I do not think politically the AU population will allow for a double or trebling of our NOM, whereas our 'death bust' is inevitable and will result in more supply.
I do not think we will be 'swamped' at all. Far from it in fact.
Your inability or unwillingness to understand the most basic points that don't suit your narrative is impressive.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
Your inability or unwillingness to understand the most basic points that don't suit your narrative is impressive.
Whereas you ability to ignore what is to happen to our natural growth and talk total population growth based on a set of assumption that may change anytime depending on the politics of the day, is far from impressive.
I understand well the 'basic points' Peter.
Now back to Germany. Anti-specualtion controls and a high LVT.
Whereas you ability to ignore what is to happen to our natural growth and talk total population growth based on a set of assumption that may change anytime depending on the politics of the day, is far from impressive.
I understand well the 'basic points' Peter.
Now back to Germany. Anti-specualtion controls and a high LVT.
With a shrinking population and a surplus of houses Germany doesn't really need anti-speculation controls or high LVT or low LVR lending or any other measures to keep down what will be kept down by normal market forces.
What I suspect will happen is that as the price of housing in Germany falls people will be attracted into Germany looking for jobs even if they don't achieve citizenship.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
With a shrinking population and a surplus of houses Germany doesn't really need anti-speculation controls or high LVT or low LVR lending or any other measures to keep down what will be kept down by normal market forces.
What I suspect will happen is that as the price of housing in Germany falls people will be attracted into Germany looking for jobs even if they don't achieve citizenship.
Totally agree. Jobs will be there as they have a productive economy mainly due to making sure capital was invested into productive works. Now for Oz, well....
"70% of people own their homes and the government has served these people very well by stopping the kind of over enthusiasm and dramatic panic that occurred in Ireland, etc."
No, 31% are outright owners, down from 45%
"The only way for house prices to drop sustainably is through population decline and and all the real doom and gloom that will come with that."
So why has the prices not declined in the many burbs in AU that have had a falling/declining population? I am still in awe of the amount of suburbs like Rochedale, Springwood, Jindalee, Albany Creek and Capalaba in Brisbane that had population declines from 2006 to 2011.
smarter people than I have tried to help you understand home ownership but it appear that you area lost cause as you just have no idea how it works at all.
Do you ever read what anyone else posts?
Veritas
1 Oct 2014, 02:33 PM
Are you being deliberately misleading or are you just really, really thick?
Genuine question.
No Veritas it is you who is brainwashed you live in some kind of alternate universe where everything is on edge awaiting disaster. I have tried so many times to show you who the doom and gloomers are and how long they have been spouting their rubbish and how many people end up embittered as they age and see how far behind their peers they are falling.
One day you will see them for what they are I just hope for your sake it is sooner rather than later.
ThePauk
1 Oct 2014, 04:05 PM
What argument?
Germany invests into productive works as a result of ant-speculation laws and taxes, where as Australia invests into unproductive works like established housing. That is the stark difference and why their GDP per person is rising and ours is falling.
Your ignorance of the demographic decline coming in our natural growth is obvious. More deaths means more supply.
Germans invested in property all over Europe ya eejit. Why do you think the Irish etc had to cover the huge losses made by German banks speculating in other people's market?
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
scammy The burbs I mentioned that had a declining population and increases in house prices.
perhaps some proof of 'Germans invested in property all over Europe ya eejit.' Individual Germans? Me thinks not.
I sold a house in Ireland to Germans about a decade ago - they bought holiday houses there in their droves. The German banks and their greed for ever increasing gains from the returning diaspora were a major cause of the crisis in Ireland.
HOK has reported that, so far this year, almost 30 percent of new homes sales were made to non-nationals, up from under 5 percent just two years ago.
"From levels of very low percentages in the last few years, this group of buyers has exploded," says O'Driscoll. A wide variety of nationalities are buying.
The vast majority are European and not just from new accession states; many buyers are also French, German, Italian and Spanish.
Quote:
Most of Europe's empty homes are in Spain, which saw the biggest construction boom in the mid-2000s fed largely by Britons and Germans buying homes in the sun. The latest Spanish census, published last year, indicated that more than 3.4m homes – 14% of all properties – were vacant. The number of empty homes has risen by more than 10% in the past decade.
Their own crappy returns on property due to their declining population are a bl**dy hazard to the rest of Europe.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Your inability or unwillingness to understand the most basic points that don't suit your narrative is impressive.
Socialists value their own personal values over facts; So facts are a necessary casualty of their narratives.
But anyway, Germany; Yeah - Funny ole one. Very low home ownership rates being possibly the single most outstanding thing about them? Plus a bunch of regs that do seem to be reasonably tenant friendly???
Kind of raises the question maybe, if for a democracy to become that tenant friendly, a very high % don't actually need to be tenants; As opposed to homeowners and/or landlords. With the result that homeownership just isn't seen as being especially necessary. Or valued or desired anyway.
It would take an awful lot of change for 'the average Aussie' to get into that mindset I suspect?
Though if BP's 'transmutation' was to ever really begin to start shaping up as having some substance, I'd not be too surprised to see us shifting towards the German mindset.
Germany has full CGT on all property, inc the PPOR, sold under 10 years and very high land taxes. Nothing to do with population growth at all.
Or, to put it another way, Germany has *no* capital gains tax for property held for more than 10 years. Under 10 years, it works out at about 28%.
Like most places there is a tax collected by the municipality on property called Grundsteuer. In Germany it varies by municipality a lot, but 0.3% of the purchase price of the property would be fairly typical. Also note that under most rental agreements, Grundsteuer is paid by the renter, and not the owner.
Germany allows negative gearing, but mortgage interest is not an allowable deduction so it would be very unusual for a German property to be negatively geared.
ThePauk
1 Oct 2014, 04:05 PM
Germany invests into productive works as a result of ant-speculation laws and taxes, where as Australia invests into unproductive works like established housing. That is the stark difference and why their GDP per person is rising and ours is falling.
There is zero investment in established housing *anywhere*, simply because what the buyer invests, the seller disinvests. Nett investment is precisely zero.
There is zero investment in established housing *anywhere*, simply because what the buyer invests, the seller disinvests. Nett investment is precisely zero.
LOL! - Another total arse kick ...
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer:"negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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