No doubt they face decline, however the surge in their recent immigration, the highest in 20 years, shows they will adapt well and that their projections may change.
It has actually only been in decline since 2003, hardly 'decades' and as you can see from above, growth is once again positive for the time being.
So they have a stable population and a growing GDP...mmmmmm
Paul - the projections that you present point to a population decline of 23 million to 28 million by 2060.
How will that create a housing shortfall? I don't care about their GDP - people don't pay more because they feel generous or have extra money, they pay more because there is competition from other buyers.
When Germany has a spare 10 million homes what competition will there be from other buyers?
Australia on the other hand increase their population by about 1 million every two to 3 years.
Do you get the significant difference between the two countries?
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
Paul - the projections that you present point to a population decline of 23 million to 28 million by 2060.
How will that create a housing shortfall? I don't care about their GDP - people don't pay more because they feel generous or have extra money, they pay more because there is competition from other buyers.
When Germany has a spare 10 million homes what competition will there be from other buyers?
Australia on the other hand increase their population by about 1 million every two to 3 years.
Do you get the significant difference between the two countries?
or http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09613210903166739?journalCode=rbri20#preview 2009 "Although most discussions on building stocks assume a static or growing stock over time, this case study highlights the opposite condition of a shrinking population and its potential effects on the building stock. Scenarios to 2050 are presented for the housing stock in eastern and western Germany based on population projections. Due to long-term population decline, the prospect of increasing housing vacancies raises new questions for urban housing stock management, operation and maintenance strategies. In the first years of the new millennium, the demolition rate in eastern Germany increased to 0.5% of the existing stock per year. This rate may need to increase further over the next 40 years to keep the vacancy rate below an average of 15%, which could mean 20–25% in multiple-dwelling units. With 25 years' delay, western Germany will enter a similar development stream also due to population shrinkage. Spatial disparities of shrinking population patterns will require a critical revision of public policy. Reconciling environmental objectives to preserve old stocks, reduce demolition rates, and reduce material flows will need to be balanced with demographic, social and economic concerns. This will impact on the current interpretations of sustainable development and suggests that regional circumstances will need to be incorporated into the evolving definition."
Germans will not put capital towards unproductive works, like residential housing, mainly as they have strong anti-speculation laws and taxes in place. Full CGT on all property sold under ten years and a LVT that is very high.
While you can delude yourself about a 1 million people (vast majority are temp visa holders, students, long term tourists etc) the reality of permanent migration is very different indeed.
As for the population differences, I really do not see much difference at the moment as Germany embarks on a very high immigration push, similar to Oz and also mostly temp visa holders.
They will not have a housing shortfall at all. In fact they are demolishing houses now.
Germans will not put capital towards unproductive works, like residential housing, mainly as they have strong anti-speculation laws and taxes in place. Full CGT on all property sold under ten years and a LVT that is very high.
While you can delude yourself about a 1 million people (vast majority are temp visa holders, students, long term tourists etc) the reality of permanent migration is very different indeed.
I really do not see much difference at the moment as Germany embarks on a very high immigration push, similar to Oz and also mostly temp visa holders.
Mate if you can't see the difference between a country with continuous population growth and one with recent zero growth and projected negative growth then I just can't help you.
Peter Both Germany and Australia have below replacement fertility, in the case of Australia since 1973 and for Germany since 1970. Only due to our continual NOM have we grown. Now Germany is on that high NOM path and their population is growing again. Now 80 years after a baby boom, comes a death bust and our natural growth will also drop very dramatically perhaps to zero or even negative. NOM is a lever that govt control, natural growth, not so much.
Peter Both Germany and Australia have below replacement fertility, in the case of Australia since 1973 and for Germany since 1970. Only due to our continual NOM have we grown. Now Germany is on that high NOM path and their population is growing again. Now 80 years after a baby boom, comes a death bust and our natural growth will also drop very dramatically perhaps to zero or even negative. NOM is a lever that govt control, natural growth, not so much.
PS: I do not ever recall asking for your 'help' at all...
Paul you graph tells me that fertility rates in the west have fallen and Germany has a rate of 1.35 and Australia has a rate of 1.8 to 2.00 which is far higher than Germany.
Paul we are comparing one nation that needs to destroy homes to one that needs to build them.
Mate I doubt that even the most outspoken bears will support your argument. I know that Leith bangs on about Germany but I have to ask why - the differences are staggering.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
Germany invests into productive works as a result of ant-speculation laws and taxes, where as Australia invests into unproductive works like established housing. That is the stark difference and why their GDP per person is rising and ours is falling.
Your ignorance of the demographic decline coming in our natural growth is obvious. More deaths means more supply.
Germany invests into productive works as a result of ant-speculation laws and taxes, where as Australia invests into unproductive works like established housing. That is the stark difference and why their GDP per person is rising and ours is falling.
Your ignorance of the demographic decline coming in our natural growth is obvious. More deaths means more supply.
Peter You are talking and showing a graph of the projected total population growth, not the natural growth which I was referring to. Our projections are based on a high NOM. That is under govt control, whereas our natural growth really is not.
The real question is will an ageing Australia accept a doubling or trebling of our NOM to compensate for the fall in our natural growth? I do not think they will and I am sure the total projections will be revised down as the 'death bust' unfolds.
Peter You are talking and showing a graph of the projected total population growth, not the natural growth which I was referring to. Our projections are based on a high NOM. That is under govt control, whereas our natural growth really is not.
The real question is will an ageing Australia accept a doubling or trebling of our NOM to compensate for the fall in our natural growth? I do not think they will and I am sure the total projections will be revised down as the 'death bust' unfolds.
OK then - we will be swamped by unnatural people who will all want houses that have yet to be built.
When you look at the lowest of the projections and you note that the projections is still for a doubling of the population does that not tell you anything?
OK then - we will be swamped by unnatural people who will all want houses that have yet to be built.
Is that better?
No, I do not think politically the AU population will allow for a double or trebling of our NOM, whereas our 'death bust' is inevitable and will result in more supply.
I do not think we will be 'swamped' at all. Far from it in fact.
The Variant C is only a projection, based on a set of assumptions that may or may not happen. Only the deaths are an absolute in this discussion.
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