So my question, then, is if Germany is so great why is their population shrinking? It's obviously not a country of choice for immigration, and the locals don't seem to be reproducing at a sustainable rate.
It is called the 'demographic paradox' As a nation become more wealthy, fertility drops.
Note their immigration has increased significantly..
OR perhaps we should have had a run of sensible governments that did not see house price mega inflation as being some sort of magic GDP growth? they are the ones that have set us up for a possible financial catastrophe (as per Ireland) or have reverted us back to a more landlord/master-servant era which will persist for decades or more. Our polies of either side have not served us well in this issue, turning shelter into a financial ponzi scheme is not good economics or politics in the long run no matter what the final outcome, as all the possible outcomes are bad. The current government is particularly bad as it sees shitting on generations of people to come as being some sort of righteousness and closer to godliness than any government we have ever had.
Steve All of your post is just the kind of nonsense that gets rolled out everytime there is a downturn.
We have one federal government here yet many different housing markets, why? because house prices are determined by how many people want to live in a particular area?
70% of people own their homes and the government has served these people very well by stopping the kind of over enthusiasm and dramatic panic that occurred in Ireland, etc.
There is no-one shitting on generations to come what kind of nonsense is that. Many many young people can buy homes today, they just cannot buy in the most desirable areas as there are too many people wanting those homes.
The only way for house prices to drop sustainably is through population decline and and all the real doom and gloom that will come with that.
Surely you must see by now how wrong the doom merchants and ponzi spruikers were by now. Their black fantasies were never going to deliver anything good to young people anyway, just ask the youth of Ireland and Spain.
Walk away from this negativity and pick up your life in the real world. Surely you have met a few straggler doomers from the 90s still waiting on the crash to end all crashes and heading into retirement still paying rent and full of bitterness.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
"70% of people own their homes and the government has served these people very well by stopping the kind of over enthusiasm and dramatic panic that occurred in Ireland, etc."
No, 31% are outright owners, down from 45%
"The only way for house prices to drop sustainably is through population decline and and all the real doom and gloom that will come with that."
So why has the prices not declined in the many burbs in AU that have had a falling/declining population? I am still in awe of the amount of suburbs like Rochedale, Springwood, Jindalee, Albany Creek and Capalaba in Brisbane that had population declines from 2006 to 2011.
According to provisional results, 1,226,000 people immigrated to Germany in 2013. This was an increase of 146,000, or 13%, from 2012. Such a high level of immigration was last recorded in 1993. A total of 789,000 people departed from Germany in 2013, 77,000 (+11%) more than in the previous year. Balancing arrivals against departures results in a net immigration of 437,000 people in 2013 – also the highest figure since 1993.
Surely you must see by now how wrong the doom merchants and ponzi spruikers were by now. Their black fantasies were never going to deliver anything good to young people anyway, just ask the youth of Ireland and Spain.
Are you being deliberately misleading or are you just really, really thick?
Genuine question.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
According to provisional results, 1,226,000 people immigrated to Germany in 2013. This was an increase of 146,000, or 13%, from 2012. Such a high level of immigration was last recorded in 1993. A total of 789,000 people departed from Germany in 2013, 77,000 (+11%) more than in the previous year. Balancing arrivals against departures results in a net immigration of 437,000 people in 2013 – also the highest figure since 1993.
Oh come on Paul the population growth in Germany has been dismal for decades. Here is a graph from the world bank that was updated just days ago. When you say the highest level for 20 years it sounds impressive, but the real figures are pretty ordinary. Why anyone in their right mind would suggest that we could adopt a model that suited ZPG is beyond me. Perhaps when we get to ZPG we can reconsider the idea.
No doubt they face decline, however the surge in their recent immigration, the highest in 20 years, shows they will adapt well and that their projections may change.
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