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Perth House Prices Set to Fall.; Sales Activity drops below the 20 year average.
Topic Started: 30 Sep 2014, 02:56 PM (2,977 Views)
Perthite
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A collapse in FHB's in WA is probably going to play havoc with medians.

http://reiwa.com.au/About-Us/News/Latest-data-suggests-first-home-buyer-market-has-turned/

Looks like construction is going to suffer as well.
Edited by Perthite, 1 Oct 2014, 03:17 PM.
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

Perthite
30 Sep 2014, 03:34 PM
All this I saw coming as interest rates fell... opportunistic indeed.
Good luck, i sold out 16 months ago.

Market was not looking to good to me.

I would buy back in when real prices drop by 50% or more.

Good luck.

Peter

Or i would swap inside the market if i found better value.
http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/n/2/1/u/8/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1456285515560.png
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Bell
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peter fraser
30 Sep 2014, 03:02 PM
For the purpose of the exercise lets assume this will come true.

At what point will you choose to buy?

10% off or 20% off or 40% off?
Yep Perth is looking GREAT for buyers mid-end of next year 2015. I would expect the falls to be in the order of at least 20% anything more than that and you are being greedy ;-)

I wouldn't expect it to fall any more than 30% though. While prices are high, wages are higher in WA.

In a perfect world a ratio of about 3x the average wage, so when the average is about 250k in the estates is when its about right BUT WA has super super super high immigration so I would put the floor somewhere around 300k. Its about 380-400 at the moment.

I would probably look to buy when the average is about 450k. You'll be getting 15-20% off but wont risk jumping in when all the good blocks are taken once the price falls are at 30% I wouldn't expect falls of 40-50% that's just unrealistic as the government will most definitely step in by then. Heck they will probably step in at 20%

I love articles like this - Reporting Perth to be 600k+ soon but then the realisation is its stagnating and falling because now the end of the year approaching its actually trending down below 540k.

http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/real-estate-experts-predict-record-600000-median-house-price-for-perth/story-fnhocxo3-1226828212706?nk=2e4d78dbd578f108e494a10d9ef2c739

http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/perth-house-prices-set-to-fall-property-analysts-predict-20140930-10nvq1.html

Whos that guy who's always posting articles say this is proof prices are skyrocketing lol. I want to say mike? lol Imagine listening to him and buying at the start of the year only to lose 10%

Some people are hopeless.

Like I said, next year is the time to buy. usual rules, blocks north facing, high side of the street, no bus stops, within 1km of schools, 3km of major shops and train lines and you cant go wrong. Unless you buy a block less than 840m2 ;-)

Again, I wouldn't expect the price to fall too far below 20% before the State government steps in and starts throwing cash around to stop people losing money. They will probably try 21k first home owner grants again. Which is what broke the system in the first place.

But the government never learns from its mistakes so we'll do it again and again, just get in make your money then pull out.
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