Viewed from afar (Brisbane) I would agree, but sometimes what is actually happening is not what is being reported.
What you will find is that in a stressed market most sellers will just hold and so the median price doesn't fall much and most buyers will continue to pay close to yesterdays median price. But amongst the sellers will be some desperate sellers for whatever reason - and if you can snag one of those you might get your 20% or near to it, but you might have to compromise on area, style of house, overgrown front yard whatever.
If you don't mind chain sawing a couple of trees or whatever it takes to get it back to the area standard then you will do OK.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
Have you see any recent reports on the trend in sales volume for Brisbane Peter? (Matusik is one of those who mentions it occasionally. And places a fair bit of weight on it as I recall.)
Not just recently herbie, but the stock on market SQM report shows the stock levels gradually trending down even though there are a lot of apartments being completed.
For the purpose of the exercise lets assume this will come true.
At what point will you choose to buy?
10% off or 20% off or 40% off?
I'm not in a position to move back, but if my brothers chose to get back into the market I would buy with them.
peter fraser
30 Sep 2014, 03:17 PM
OK - what I'm looking for is "what do you think is an attractive discount"
In an ideal world if you were ready to buy now what would make you act?
Whilst I've been to Perth and checked out the REA windows I don't know the market.
It doesn't really work like that. If it's a buyers market, then it depends if you are ready to move, then you have to find the right house. How much the general market has fallen is largely irrelevant. It's more the fact that the market is falling. Any distressed sellers will be forced to drop by much more than the market.
I'm not in a position to move back, but if my brothers chose to get back into the market I would buy with them. It doesn't really work like that. If it's a buyers market, then it depends if you are ready to move, then you have to find the right house. How much the general market has fallen is largely irrelevant. It's more the fact that the market is falling. Any distressed sellers will be forced to drop by much more than the market.
If you think that you will find the house of your dreams in the exact location you want at a 20% discount when the rest of the market is not crashing then I would expect you to be disappointed, but if you are prepared to compromise a little then you will do OK. Getting a really good buy in a good location has always been good enough for me.
I like to make money at the moment of purchase. It's too hard at the sale.
REIWA executive manager of research, Stewart Darby, said while there might still be a spring pick-up, there had now been a drop in the number of sales in Perth in every quarter since March 2013.
Whadya know, even REIWA agrees with my prognosis for the Perth market going forward.
I always said that I didn't sell when I did on whim.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
Have you see any recent reports on the trend in sales volume for Brisbane Peter? (Matusik is one of those who mentions it occasionally. And places a fair bit of weight on it as I recall.)
In my area (Sunnybank) houses are selling fast at good (or bad depending on how you look at things) prices, and a much higher volume than 1.5yrs ago. These are places in the $500-600k bracket. I've noticed the percentage of auctions has risen from 10-20% to 50-60%. These auctioned houses are actually selling (rare for BNE) and at good prices. I assume that they're being taken to auction rather than PT because the agents can't really price them in a rising market. The heat in the area may just have something to do with the demographic who buy houses in this area, and therefore may not reflect the rest of Brisbane.
I know someone who is trying to sell a more expensive property in a totally different area and is struggling to get interest.
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