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CJ says sell up!
Topic Started: 20 Sep 2014, 06:26 PM (6,858 Views)
b_b
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Garden Variety
20 Sep 2014, 11:03 PM
k, but if it is such a great time to sell, who is thick enough to buy?
People who didn't buy in 2009 because they listened to Steve keen.

People who didn't buy in 2012 because they listened to Jeremy Grantham / Gerard minnack and other bears.

People who finally capitulated. Tired and frustrated from waiting for the ' inevitable' crash...people who have somehow convinced themselves the market is 'rigged' and now have to buy. Never really understanding what drives property (ie not interest rates). Ionically these same people will now form the peak.

Very sad.
Edited by b_b, 20 Sep 2014, 11:52 PM.
(S – I) + (T - G) + (M - X) = 0
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GloomBoomDoom
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b_b
20 Sep 2014, 11:21 PM
People who didn't buy in 2009 because they listened to Steve keen.

People who didn't buy in 2012 because they listened to Jeremy Grantham / Gerard minnack and other bears.

People who finally capitulated. Tired and frustrated from waiting for the ' inevitable' crash...people who have somehow convinced themselves the market is 'rigged' and now have to buy. Never really understanding what drives property (ie not interest rates). Ionically these same people will now form the peak.

Very sad.
I don't think that's the case. Most people wouldn't have a clue who Steve Keen or Jeremy Grantham is. They have no interest in or concept of finance. They think house prices are just what they are. They probably don't even understand how interest rates affect payments. They simply apply for a loan, see how much they are approved for and spend it. They also swallow everything a RE agent shoves down their throat.
MSE
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b_b
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GloomBoomDoom
21 Sep 2014, 12:11 AM
I don't think that's the case. Most people wouldn't have a clue who Steve Keen or Jeremy Grantham is. They have no interest in or concept of finance. They think house prices are just what they are. They probably don't even understand how interest rates affect payments. They simply apply for a loan, see how much they are approved for and spend it. They also swallow everything a RE agent shoves down their throat.
Yes - I don't disagree. Most people simply buy a house because they are at that stage in life (ppor or investment). That is always the case, in every cycle. But, at the margin, my sense there were enough people scared off in previous years (when they should gave bought) who are now adding to the normal buying demand. That use all you need for a frenzy. And in Sydney, it is a frenzy.
Edited by b_b, 21 Sep 2014, 12:37 AM.
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GloomBoomDoom
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b_b
21 Sep 2014, 12:23 AM
Yes - I don't disagree. Most people simply buy a house because they are at that stage in life (ppor or investment). That is always the case, in every cycle. But, at the margin, my sense there were enough people scared off in previous years (when they should gave bought). who are now adding to the normal buying demand. That use all you need for a frenzy. And in Sydney, it is a frenzy.
To be honest I don't think anyone was scared off. If they were it was only by an obviously shallow concerted effort from the general media/REI. They attempt to influence an artificial slow down then influence an artificial increase with the help of the RBA lowering rates. The general public are none the wiser.
Anyone who knows the economy is in trouble hence the lowering of rates would be unlikely to purchase because prices have recovered somewhat in a 'frenzy'. If anything they are less likely to participate than before IMO.

Looks like nobody learned anything from 2008.
http://www.news.com.au/finance/money/desperate-first-home-buyers-can-get-into-market-with-2500-deposit/story-fnagkbpv-1227064406739
Edited by GloomBoomDoom, 21 Sep 2014, 12:58 AM.
MSE
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b_b
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GloomBoomDoom
21 Sep 2014, 12:44 AM
To be honest I don't think anyone was scared off. If they were it was only by an obviously shallow concerted effort from the general media/REI. They attempt to influence an artificial slow down then influence an artificial increase with the help of the RBA lowering rates. The general public are none the wiser.
Anyone who knows the economy is in trouble hence the lowering of rates would be unlikely to purchase because prices have recovered somewhat in a 'frenzy'. If anything they are less likely to participate than before IMO.
I think you are a bit paranoid. The rei is not that influential. No one is. It has been a normal cycle. Prices were blew replacement, now that have moved above. The only difference is pent up buying from participants who should have bought last cycle.

You do not need too much additional demand for a boom. In the same way, only a little extra supply causes a correction. We are witnessing the first, we will soon experience the second.
(S – I) + (T - G) + (M - X) = 0
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GloomBoomDoom
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b_b
21 Sep 2014, 12:58 AM
I think you are a bit paranoid. The rei is not that influential. No one is. It has been a normal cycle. Prices were blew replacement, now that have moved above. The only difference is pent up buying from participants who should have bought last cycle.

You do not need too much additional demand for a boom. In the same way, only a little extra supply causes a correction. We are witnessing the first, we will soon experience the second.
The market is all about confidence. It's quite easy to lay the foundations to support that.
MSE
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

I always look to see what can i move from.

And then what can i move to.

Peter
http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/n/2/1/u/8/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1456285515560.png
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goldbug
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b_b
20 Sep 2014, 11:21 PM
People who didn't buy in 2009 because they listened to Steve keen.
People who didn't buy in 2012 because they listened to Jeremy Grantham / Gerard minnack and other bears.
People who finally capitulated. Tired and frustrated from waiting for the ' inevitable' crash.

Very sad.
This is a pretty shallow opinion. As stated, very few listen to the fringe doomers like keen.

Buyers since 2009 have been scared off because they dont like the thought of owing a million dollars at a time of economic calamity. Here on the forum we mostly talk about the price of homes in terms of sale price, but as we all know, when you actually buy one you are confronted with the total repayment package. Its hard not to avoid factoring that into the purchase.

Things would return to normal in the property sectors if the world economy went back to normal but that's not happening and the average buyer in the street knows that. They have friends who have lost jobs, they have their own accounts that yield no interest, they see holden and ford closing. They know there has been no real recovery.

Basically they are not fooled by the bullshit news stories the bulls on apf take great pride in posting up to justify their stance. It's only mugs buying investment property on IO loans that is fueling the bubble now. They think they don't have to pay these loans off. If they did they wouldn't be buying.

Shadow was hopelessly wrong about the Gold Bull Market.
What else is he wrong about?
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Ex BP Golly
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b_b
21 Sep 2014, 12:58 AM
I think you are a bit paranoid. The rei is not that influential. No one is. It has been a normal cycle. Prices were blew replacement, now that have moved above. The only difference is pent up buying from participants who should have bought last cycle.

You do not need too much additional demand for a boom. In the same way, only a little extra supply causes a correction. We are witnessing the first, we will soon experience the second.
Read that post again.

You dont need much demand to create a boom, so the rei in fact doesnt have to be ' all that much influential' to create one- right.

Except we know the rei is very influential.

They wouldnt spend hundreds of millions on advertising, or on industry political reperesentation organisations, or on corrupting 20% of an incumbent governments members, or on astroturfing etc etc, to be anything but- influential.

REI is the sector that ate Australia!
goldbug
21 Sep 2014, 05:11 AM
Basically they are not fooled by the bullshit news stories the bulls on apf take great pride in posting up to justify their stance. It's only mugs buying investment property on IO loans that is fueling the bubble now. They think they don't have to pay these loans off. If they did they wouldn't be buying.
Lol.

They think they have found the madjik puddn

Posted Image
Edited by Ex BP Golly, 21 Sep 2014, 07:49 AM.
WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
Share a cot with Milton?
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Zembelin
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It makes me laugh listening to some of the bulls on this site who tell us at what point of the cycle we are at. As if they really know!!! The Australian economy has never been in the position it is now where we mainly rely on houses and holes to get by,...or is that just houses?

The problem with the Australian economy, is it is broken. Wages too high to be internationally competitive, manufacturing industries vaporising because of this, high house prices taking all discretionary spending away from economic diversification and a political elite with their feet up on the desk while they chomp on a cigar and talk about their IP's annual growth tripling inflation!

I have taken my grandparents advice who lived through the Great Depression. If you have to get a loan for a house, pay it off as soon as you can and then stay out of debt! Sage advice I believe.
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