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Patrick and Aimee Taskunas - three properties by age 22; Just do it. Don’t wait for the moment to pass, or try to “time the market”
Topic Started: 20 Sep 2014, 12:32 AM (13,270 Views)
skamy
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Jimbo
8 Oct 2014, 02:33 AM
Greenfields is tanking. I have been watching it for years with a view to buying a riverside property as a weekender. I looked at two today that have both been reduced and I may be putting in an offer (got a couple more to look at first).

Here is an example

Posted Image



That house was sold in January.


One or two houses does not make the market. Fact is that the aggregate data for Greensfields shows that this year it rose by 9.7%
http://reiwa.com.au/real-estate/Greenfields/

I actually agree with you that there is great buying there no doubt about. They are virtually selling for land value.
Edited by skamy, 8 Oct 2014, 04:58 PM.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Stan
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herbie
8 Oct 2014, 03:33 PM
I do find people's various takes on the 'morality' of such things interesting tho' Doc.

Certainly quite a few of those who rail against property 'specufestors' don't seem to have any apparent qualms 'specufesting' on share market trades to make profits from the Oz banks that fund the Oz property 'specufestors' nor on the Oz miners that produce the iron ore and coal and whatever else that's obviously being used in building all the resi property in China that's been so enthusiastically 'specufested' on over there.

Curious No?
That's gotta be post of the day Herbie :)

Profit from houses and you're a dog - profit from someone's misery via the share market and you're a legend it seems.

Fucking incredible
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Stan
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paddytaskunas
8 Oct 2014, 04:27 PM
what do you mean by my online identity?
And that has to be second best post on the Internet today.

Fucking hell Patrick, you almost made me piss my pants.
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Jimbo
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skamy
8 Oct 2014, 04:54 PM
That house was sold in January.


One or two houses does not make the market. Fact is that the aggregate data for Greensfields shows that this year it rose by 9.7%
http://reiwa.com.au/real-estate/Greenfields/

I actually agree with you that there is great buying there no doubt about. They are virtually selling for land value.
There are others that have been reduced considerably this year. Towards the station (away from the river), prices have increased but that is the cheaper end of town and it didn't skyrocket like the riverside area did. The higher priced properties make up a very tiny proportion of the area so reductions in these few properties don't reflect in the median. Warnbro is similar in that there are properties worth millions in the dunes where the rest of the suburb (the vast majority) is around the median of 365k. When a house in the dunes sells for 200k less it doesn't skew the median.

One place I looked at in Greenfields has been reduced three times in six months. Another is on the market for less than was paid for it two years ago. I am not going to provide links to these places because I am looking to buy.

My own theory on these top end property reductions is that people paid way over the odds in the mad pre 2007 scramble for anything near the water in Mandurah and a mini bubble formed. Property away from the water didn't behave in the same way and just followed the wider market.

Here's one down in Dawesville on the north side of the cut. I know it is over a year out of date but it shows the level of carnage down that way.

Posted Image

And if you think that one was bad, check this

Posted Image

And this one is on the market now for $569k http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-wa-wannanup-117416603

Posted Image

Strangely REIWA has Wannanup down as 11.1% annual growth but every property I have looked at down there is reduced?

Is the rest of Perth immune from this? I think not.
Edited by Jimbo, 8 Oct 2014, 06:54 PM.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Chris
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Stan
8 Oct 2014, 05:36 PM
That's gotta be post of the day Herbie :)

Profit from houses and you're a dog - profit from someone's misery via the share market and you're a legend it seems.

Fucking incredible
Not at all Stan, I never advocated one over the other, in fact I realise they are intrinsically linked.

Here in lies the issue of property ever does crash, I don't think the general population realises how much it will hurt. We all profit from the share market, almost all working adults and some teens have superannuation, super makes a large chunk of profit from shares and propety.

House prices collapsing would lead to a wealth obliteration that would not be surpassed, I realise it can be argued that the wealth/profits were never real in the first place but it's its irrelevant. The average punter will look at their IPs devalue then watch as their super gets hammered and if they were stupid enough to 'diversify' and have a margin loan leverage off their IPs in separate shares in banks, oz property etc then wow it would be unbelievably painful.
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Stan
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Chris
8 Oct 2014, 05:56 PM
Not at all Stan, I never advocated one over the other, in fact I realise they are intrinsically linked.

Here in lies the issue of property ever does crash, I don't think the general population realises how much it will hurt. We all profit from the share market, almost all working adults and some teens have superannuation, super makes a large chunk of profit from shares and propety.

House prices collapsing would lead to a wealth obliteration that would not be surpassed, I realise it can be argued that the wealth/profits were never real in the first place but it's its irrelevant. The average punter will look at their IPs devalue then watch as their super gets hammered and if they were stupid enough to 'diversify' and have a margin loan leverage off their IPs in separate shares in banks, oz property etc then wow it would be unbelievably painful.
Sorry Chris, I wasn't taking a shot at you in any way, something about Herbies post stood out to me on its own merits and just 'rang true' :)

I agree a property crash would be a disaster - we only have to look at other countries who experienced one and the effects on their economies. If I had to guess I would say that we might experience a significant correction at some stage during the next 6 years. I don't think we will have a massive crash, but I do believe that some people are going to get burnt more than the usual buying at the top of the cycle scenario at some stage.

The problem is that the RBA now has a hard on for avoiding recession. I believe they (as well as the states) may over react (again) when the time eventually arrives where it looks like we might be close to one.
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herbie
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peter fraser
8 Oct 2014, 03:41 PM
Very curious. They day trade selling the same parcel of shares or CFD's to each other and then moralise about buying houses being unproductive. Unbelievable hypocrisy.

I think that it's a bit like your take on socialism herbie - everyone else is a bastard except me and they should pay so that I can get a house on the cheap.

The Lorax calls them the "I Wanna House Crowd".
Seems to me that as human beings Peter, we do seem to be just generally rather more skilled at detecting possible 'fault' in others behaviour than in our own.

Socialism - My criticisms there are more of the general nature that it's fundamentally incompatible with human nature (as I observe it to 'generally' really be - Overall on balance across the board) - So will always and ultimately fail, than any particular beef with their approach to housing as such.

Just on that one, it is my understanding that the Soviet constitution enshrined 'the right to housing' (amongst others) as some sort of most basic human right? And if I'm correct in that, it just could help make some of that Gunnamatta dude's from elsewhere's attitudes to some stuff a bit easier to understand? (Not that I've read much of his stuff at all; So am going right out on a limb in even suggesting it; So read same in that light - But the thought just could be a bit of grist to the mill if you have??? - Though alternatively he could just be another wanker rather than any sort of 'true' Socialist as such - Lord knows there's plenty of THEM about.)

Additionally, I also note that as Socialism failed there (as it only ever can - IMO), what they seem to have ended up with is pretty much everyone 'owning' some sort of a home (apparently?), but that neither they as individuals nor the guv/their fellow tax payer on their behalf, can afford to maintain.

Tho' the Socialist would tell you that the 'fault' lies with the dude who's not just naturally rushing to cough up his/her loot to maintain some other dude's home maybe?
Edited by herbie, 8 Oct 2014, 08:39 PM.
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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peter fraser
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herbie
8 Oct 2014, 07:18 PM
Seems to me that as human beings Peter, we do seem to be just generally rather more skilled at detecting possible 'fault' in others behaviour than in our own.

Socialism - My criticisms there are more of the general nature that it's fundamentally incompatible with human nature (as I observe it to 'generally' really be - Overall on balance across the board) - So will always and ultimately fail, than any particular beef with their approach to housing as such.

Just on that one, it is my understanding that the Soviet constitution enshrined 'the right to housing' (amongst others) as some sort of most basic human right? And if I'm correct in that, it just could help make some of that Gunnamatta dude's from elsewhere's attitudes to some stuff a bit easier to understand? (Not that I've read much of his stuff at all; So am going right out on a limb in even suggesting it; So read same in that light - But the thought just could be a bit of grist to the mill if you have??? - Though alternatively he could just be another wanker rather than any sort of 'true' Socialist as such - Lord knows there's plenty of THEM about.)

Additionally, I also note that as Socialism failed there (as it only ever can - IMO), what they seem to have ended up with is pretty much everyone 'owning' some sort of a home (apparently?), but that neither they as individuals nor the guv/their fellow tax payer on their behalf, can afford to maintain.

Tho' the Socialist would tell you that the 'fault' lies with the dude who's not just naturally rushing to cough up his/her loot to maintain some other dude's home maybe?
Communism just looks like a legal version of the Mafia to me. Perhaps I'm wrong.

I don't know abut gunna - he had a complete melt down today and wrote some absolutely disgusting rubbish - lets hope he recovers from his anger management issues. Will too much exposure to the Russians do that to a guy?

I think that the state supplied the housing under communism but I don't know what happened during the transition period.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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herbie
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peter fraser
8 Oct 2014, 08:49 PM
Communism just looks like a legal version of the Mafia to me. Perhaps I'm wrong.

I don't know abut gunna - he had a complete melt down today and wrote some absolutely disgusting rubbish - lets hope he recovers from his anger management issues. Will too much exposure to the Russians do that to a guy?

I think that the state supplied the housing under communism but I don't know what happened during the transition period.
Russia - Home Ownership Rate - 2012 - 84% :

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_home_ownership_rate

But things just aren't necessarily like one might be tempted to first assume given such a stat - Is my impression ... :)
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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peter fraser
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herbie
8 Oct 2014, 09:36 PM
Russia - Home Ownership Rate - 2012 - 84% :

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_home_ownership_rate

But things just aren't necessarily like one might be tempted to first assume given such a stat - Is my impression ... :)
Have a look at the data here. http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Europe/Russia/Price-History

Plenty of supply coming apparently.

Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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