All lies and bullshit, as we have seen here , their jobs data is all guess work and made up.bullshit, that is then again revised bullshit further along to help coincide the next piece of bullshit coming along.
The only reason they are now able to taper is because after pumping 10 trillion of stimulus in for six years and keeping rates at zero, they have finally overinflated the stockarket and are now FORCED to pullback to aviod overinflating it anymore. This is not REAL economic improvement or recovery, just a complete and utter illusion to make morons think that.
So gold will take a hiding as seen as will our dollar. There is also the chance of the stock market collapsing both here and there or taking another major hit, which would smash the price of gold down again.
But the facts are these, the US is not recovering, zero rates and 10 trillion in stimulus over six years have merely created an illusion to the dopes that it is recovering.
The US , like all western economies, including Australia, have finally run their course. Wages are dropping for the first time in history in all western economies, another fact you should wake up to. Economic sectors we have had since Australia began are now closing down, mainly production and manufacturing. And we are the ONLY country in the world to lose our motor Industry, says it all really. I could have and would have saved it, but not our government, stringent measured yes, too fkn bad.
And here we are six years since the GFC surfaced, rates still at zero and western economies still headed backwards. Let me ask you dopes, where do you think the REAL economy would be if there was none of this bullshit stimulus and rates had been kept at 6%.
What many here don't seem to understand is that the US CANNOT raise rates without committing economic suicide. You see rates at zero in the beggining did nothing at to improve things, firing blanks. So out came another 10 trillion in stimulus to go with the 8 trillion already owed, more than doubled their debt in a mere matter of years, with the prior 8 trillion taking decades to accumulate.
So what will happen is this, the fed will keep telling us, like they have for six years, that interest rates will rise soon, but won't. Before much longer they will start to say that things are not going quite as well as expected and that rates will be on hold a little while longer. Before much longer they will be announce more QE, weather its before or after the next stock market collapse , I don't know.
The fact is, there is no real improvement, just the illusion of one to the uneducated. The US, like all western economies is headed backwards indefinitely as we have no answers to the debt we have built over the decades, not to mention how on earth we could ever compete with cheap overseas labour or modern tech and computerised automation.
And of all western economies, Australia's wages and house prices are in a bubble that dwarfs that or the US, euro or UK. So we will end up worse off that all of them, already reflected in employment numbers alone and the collapse of our motor Industry to name a couple.
Low interest rates are deflationary. It reduces the net interest income to the private sector. QE is the same. The loss of high yield assets for low return cash deprives the private sector of income.
Japan has already taught us these lessons over the past 20 years. But like most areas of economics, ideology overrides data, logic and observation.
It is quite amazing how uninflationary qe has been. And yet, all central banks are poised to hit inflation on the head when it occurs with rate rises. But then, maybe we are just in a deflationary phase ATM.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
This is getting old. We continue to be told that the US economy is in recovery and stronger than ever. The press trumpets heavily massaged data (GDP growth and the unemployment number) while ignoring data that clearly indicates the US economy is in the toilet (labor participation rate, median income, etc).
Do the following sound like a strong economy?
1) The labor participation rate is at a 36 year low meaning there are less Americans of working age actually working than at any point in over three decades. 2) Median income is down over $4K since 2008. You cannot use mean income to measure income because the wealth disparity in the US skews the results courtesy of the 0.01% who earn millions per year. 3) An incredible 47% of US households receive some form of social spending from the US Government. 4) One in five US households are on food stamps.
The US economy is on the brink of collapse and no amount of lies will prevent that from occuring.
It is not surprising the participation rate is the lowest in 36 years as the US experienced the worst recession in 80 years.
Median wages are now rising faster then inflation in the US
Unemployment is continues to fall.
What do you think happens as unemployment keeps falling?
I will tell you. The participation rate will slowly improve as those workers are absorbed into the Jon market. Wages will begin to increase at faster rates as the unemployment rate continues to fall as competition for workers increases. Already wage growth is picking up.
Wages always lag as you need more worker scarcity so employers values workers more and are prepared to pay more for there skills.
You are comparing the extreme top of US median wealth in 2007/8 with the after effects of the worst recession in 80 years. Median wages will increase at faster and faster rates as we move forward over the next few years.
Social spending, you mean like Australia how families up to $150,000 per year get some form of welfare. What is the % of Australian families getting some help from the Government.
How many households in Australia rely on Government welfare to put food on the table each week.
You will find the results between the US and Australia as very similar. That is not to say the US does not have a wealth distribution issue and more needs to flow to middle and lower incomes, this will happen over time as more of them are employed.
miw
4 Oct 2014, 02:57 AM
The fed probably won't raise rates until either inflation seems to be on the rise or the U6 unemployment reaches about 9%. With the USD doing what it is, cutting energy and import costs the way they are, I'd say it is U6 hitting 9% that will cause rates to start rising. If I had to pick a month I'd say October 2015. Then they will rise quite fast and this will decimate gold.
I think that is too late. We will see more strong data over this month which will likely convince the Bond market rates will move sooner. This will depend on any Polar Vortex's appearing over the US in winter again.
It is not surprising the participation rate is the lowest in 36 years as the US experienced the worst recession in 80 years.
Median wages are now rising faster then inflation in the US
Unemployment is continues to fall.
What do you think happens as unemployment keeps falling?
I will tell you. The participation rate will slowly improve as those workers are absorbed into the Jon market. Wages will begin to increase at faster rates as the unemployment rate continues to fall as competition for workers increases. Already wage growth is picking up.
Wages always lag as you need more worker scarcity so employers values workers more and are prepared to pay more for there skills.
You are comparing the extreme top of US median wealth in 2007/8 with the after effects of the worst recession in 80 years. Median wages will increase at faster and faster rates as we move forward over the next few years.
Social spending, you mean like Australia how families up to $150,000 per year get some form of welfare. What is the % of Australian families getting some help from the Government.
How many households in Australia rely on Government welfare to put food on the table each week.
You will find the results between the US and Australia as very similar. That is not to say the US does not have a wealth distribution issue and more needs to flow to middle and lower incomes, this will happen over time as more of them are employed. I think that is too late. We will see more strong data over this month which will likely convince the Bond market rates will move sooner. This will depend on any Polar Vortex's appearing over the US in winter again.
Mike, you are the example that people are so gullible they actually believe the constant flow of lies and bullshit being fed to the masses.
Can you not see that the reason rates went to zero was becuase the fed was unable to pay the interest on the debt they already owed.
They owed 8 trillion in 2008, with rates at 6%, the interest would be 480 billion a year, that's almost half a trillion a year just in interest alone Mike. What was their answer to being unable to pay the interest on the debt they already owed ? Whack rates at zero or 0.25% to be exact, the reason its not right on zero is because it wojld look to scary to the masses. So now the interest on that 8 trillion would be only 20 billion instead of 480 billion at 6%. They now have another 10 trillion in debt on top of that 8 tillion from 2008. The interest on that now is 45 billion a year. If rates were at 6% now, that interest on that 18 trillion would be about 1.1 trillion a year instead of the 45 billion while at 0.25%.
The US is not improving and never will until a proper correction is allowed to take place. But the fed dont want this to happen and are still trying desperately to aviod this because they know the end result will be far from pretty to say the least.
Wages are dropping Mike , in all western economies, why claim otherwise, it only makes you look more uninformed and cluless. Can you not see that where western economies once made ALL goods and sold them to less developed countries, things have changed. China now makes everything we all used to make, for a tiny fraction of the cost. So now all our buisinesses and jobs are dissapearing as a result.
I will repeat for you Mike, China now makes EVERYTHING, for a mere fraction of the cost, this has put western economies out of the game.
Picture this Mike, two lemonade stands selling the same product, lemonade. One sells for $1 a can, the other sells for $17 a can. Who do you think will stay in business and who do you think will go out of business real real fast Mike. The example here with lemonade representing our labour costs , and the prices here representing our wages by comparison.
Its amazing you people cannot grasp and understand the most basics of economics. And that ultimately this is all you need to know regarding the economy, which will ultimately dictate house prices, rents and wages.
Mike , I know your not really a fool, so why pretend to be ?
It is quite amazing how uninflationary qe has been. And yet, all central banks are poised to hit inflation on the head when it occurs with rate rises. But then, maybe we are just in a deflationary phase ATM.
There is no mystery as to why qe is not inflationary. It is not money printing but a swap. Akin to moving private sector money out of a term deposit to a cash deposit. It increases bank reserves but we know banks do not lend out reserves. Finally, 10 years of qe in japan already told us its inflationary pact was sweet FA.
The real mystery is why so called experts called it wrong in the face of so much evidence.
Looks similar to how my depot hill house prices have been going since purchase ten years ago.
Gee, you'd be a bit of a loser Mine are still up over 150% I guess you must be one of those fools that bought LOW set down the wrong end of town eh?
Quote:
Nothing but downhill, might need to purchase myself a little scooter to save more for the beans.
It must suck being you I bought one for the easy CBD and Cafe' parking
Quote:
Not quite the Harley I dreamed of. Some make it, some dont........
Harleys are for wankers that need to make up for areas they are lacking a lot like those that buy gold for no other reason than to show the other monkeys they have shiny trinkets I mean, what other reason would you buy it for - It has ZERO yield and is losing value daily.
Enjoy your beans, I'm about to start peeling prawns.
Ignore posts by The Whole Truth · View Post · End Ignoring The forum fuckwit goes RRRAAARRRGGHHhhh - But not a fuck was given..................by anyone.
Well, I am going out on a limb here and saying the bond market is wrong. Wrong by about 5 months for when the IR raises start and wrong (low) by about 1% in terms of where they will be in 2019.
The bond market is wrong because it's looking at the headline unemployment rate in trying to judge when the fed thinks the slack will be out of the labour market, whereas I think the fed, in the absence of inflation signals, will look more closely at the U6 and the participation rate.
Headline unemployment will reach long-term no slack levels (about 5.2%) around March most likely, but U6 will still be elevated, and my guess is that at least half the drop in the participation rate is not secular. People will keep coming back into the labour market for a while.
I don't disagree with the bond market lightly. Those guys are typically the smartest guys in the room, but they have not had a good run lately.
Well, I am going out on a limb here and saying the bond market is wrong. Wrong by about 5 months for when the IR raises start and wrong (low) by about 1% in terms of where they will be in 2019.
The bond market is wrong because it's looking at the headline unemployment rate in trying to judge when the fed thinks the slack will be out of the labour market, whereas I think the fed, in the absence of inflation signals, will look more closely at the U6 and the participation rate.
Same story with the UK. Unemployment may be down but what really matters is how much the working are being paid.
The BoE has changed focus to wages and Yellen has hinted at taking the same stance. Headline unemployment is too simplistic a measure but the bots have obviously been programmed to look at that and not the underlying reality.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
There is no mystery as to why qe is not inflationary. It is not money printing but a swap. Akin to moving private sector money out of a term deposit to a cash deposit. It increases bank reserves but we know banks do not lend out reserves. Finally, 10 years of qe in japan already told us its inflationary pact was sweet FA.
The real mystery is why so called experts called it wrong in the face of so much evidence.
When I take my kids pocket money out of the bank and give them cash, the demand for sweets in the village goes up. When I do this with the wife the price of clothes goes up. Qe is inflationary, but not by the normal measures of consumer inflation. It would be interesting to break it down over the past five years and see what has and hasn't been inflated.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
Same story with the UK. Unemployment may be down but what really matters is how much the working are being paid.
The BoE has changed focus to wages and Yellen has hinted at taking the same stance. Headline unemployment is too simplistic a measure but the bots have obviously been programmed to look at that and not the underlying reality.
Lots of things matter, but wage rises is certainly one of the things they will look carefully at, because wages will tick up fairly strongly the moment slack is out of the system. Right now in the US wage rises are only just barely keeping up with inflation, whereas under "normal" conditions they would be outpacing inflation by 1-2%.
As a central banker, you can either raise rates too late, or you can raise them too early. There is no middle ground - all you can choose is which mistake you will make. looking at the composition of the FOMC after November, I'd say they will err on the side of being late - i.e. if there is not something unequivocally telling them they must raise rates, they won't. I can't see an early signal coming from either inflation or wages, so they will wait for U6 to hit 9%, which will be the last shoe to drop.
but I can see the rhetoric getting more hawkish from here on in. look for the "considerable time" phrase to get dropped from the December FOMC statement or maybe even the October statement.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off. --Gloria Steinem AREPS™
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