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Gold easing down
Topic Started: 11 Sep 2014, 09:57 PM (11,447 Views)
John Frum
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peter fraser
16 Sep 2014, 02:38 PM
If and when the Fed increases interest rates gold will get trashed.

Be careful.
Getting trashed by Yellen right about now.
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness.
"Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
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Sydneyite
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John Frum
18 Sep 2014, 07:01 AM
Getting trashed by Yellen right about now.
Yep - $1218/oz right now - that's bouncing along an absolute key support level that has held since mid-2010... if that support breaks, the price is going to head down dramatically over the next few weeks/months IMO.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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Sydneyite
18 Sep 2014, 09:28 AM
Yep - $1218/oz right now - that's bouncing along an absolute key support level that has held since mid-2010... if that support breaks, the price is going to head down dramatically over the next few weeks/months IMO.
With the fed engineering the price of gold down, will only make the rise all that much sweeter when they have to come out and admit they can't raise rates because there fragile phoney economy would simy start collapsing.

Will they actually come out and say they lied about it, or just that they did not see it coming and now can't raise rates. The only way they will be raised , is if they are focred too.
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Trojan
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Sydneyite
18 Sep 2014, 09:28 AM
Yep - $1218/oz right now - that's bouncing along an absolute key support level that has held since mid-2010... if that support breaks, the price is going to head down dramatically over the next few weeks/months IMO.
Who would have thought with the tensions with Russia and the war in Iraq?
I put trolls and time wasters on my ignore list so if I don't respond to you, you are probably on it ....
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Mike
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Sydneyite
18 Sep 2014, 09:28 AM
Yep - $1218/oz right now - that's bouncing along an absolute key support level that has held since mid-2010... if that support breaks, the price is going to head down dramatically over the next few weeks/months IMO.
I agree.

Once the first rate increase actually happens gold will plummet. Im not sure it will hold above $1200 for much longer, once it breaches this it could lose a lot of support.

As the US keeps raising interest rates over the next few years to a more normal level we will see gold continue a long downward trend.

As I have said in the past I expect to see gold around $800 in 2 years time if not sooner.

http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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Jimbo
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Trojan
18 Sep 2014, 11:22 AM
Who would have thought with the tensions with Russia and the war in Iraq?
Gold is only marginally down in AUD terms. The price of Gold has not changed much against most currencies over the last few weeks. If you had bought Gold with Pounds three weeks ago you would actually be slightly up.

The US Dollar has gained in value on the belief that the FED will end QE and raise rates and that they will do this in baby steps and everything will be fine.

I don't believe that they can do this. Each time they have ended one QE program, they have had to come back with a bigger and longer lasting QE program to keep the economy from falling over. This time will be no different.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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peter fraser
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Jimbo
18 Sep 2014, 12:05 PM
Gold is only marginally down in AUD terms. The price of Gold has not changed much against most currencies over the last few weeks. If you had bought Gold with Pounds three weeks ago you would actually be slightly up.

The US Dollar has gained in value on the belief that the FED will end QE and raise rates and that they will do this in baby steps and everything will be fine.

I don't believe that they can do this. Each time they have ended one QE program, they have had to come back with a bigger and longer lasting QE program to keep the economy from falling over. This time will be no different.
Yes - both gold and $AUD are equally crappy holds at the present time so no damage done for the Aussie gold investors in $AUD

Do you think that gold may have further to fall than $AUD. A falling $AUD increases our mining revenue.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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Jimbo
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peter fraser
18 Sep 2014, 12:23 PM
Yes - both gold and $AUD are equally crappy holds at the present time so no damage done for the Aussie gold investors in $AUD

Do you think that gold may have further to fall than $AUD. A falling $AUD increases our mining revenue.
Gold is suffering from US Dollar strength but I am of the belief that the US is in the final stages of a dangerous experiment that could well blow up in its face.

The US may well raise interest rates by a 1/10 or 1/4 percent in early 2015 but with low inflation, they may well up causing deflation. The US can't afford to have deflation so they will respond with the only tool they have which is more QE.

Gold may suffer short term and the AUD may weaken further but the ultimate victim will be the USD.

There is not one example of a successful QE program in the history of the planet.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Count du Monet
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In the past 80 years gold has risen 60x against the USD. While money is printed the general trend for gold is up.

At the moment the USD is being devalued 6.6% pa, for a bank account to break even a rate of 6.6% is required at the very least. So while ZIRP remains gold is the better long term hold. Since the GFC the USD has been devalued at 6.6% pa and gold has risen 6.6% pa on average. Tell me when they stop printing money and raise interest rates, then I'll say gold is not worth it.
The next trick of our glorious banks will be to charge us a fee for using net bank!!!
You are no longer customer, you are property!!!

Don't be SAUCY with me Bernaisse
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Mike
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Jimbo
18 Sep 2014, 12:39 PM
Gold is suffering from US Dollar strength but I am of the belief that the US is in the final stages of a dangerous experiment that could well blow up in its face.

The US may well raise interest rates by a 1/10 or 1/4 percent in early 2015 but with low inflation, they may well up causing deflation. The US can't afford to have deflation so they will respond with the only tool they have which is more QE.

Gold may suffer short term and the AUD may weaken further but the ultimate victim will be the USD.

There is not one example of a successful QE program in the history of the planet.
I think you will find inflation is about to become more of a concern in the US then you think. Interest rates in my opinion will rise further and faster then you anticipate. It will occur over a number of years but interest rates will return to a more normal level unless a black swan event occurs such as another 9/11.

The AUD will only fall so much as the lower it goes the more support it gives to the economy and revenues of both businesses and the federal government.

Gold however has much further to fall.

As for QE I think history of the human race would suffice the planet does not have much to do with QE programs.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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