By definition someone who has invested $1 in 1802 to make $2.21 2012 years later has managed their risks very poorly, in fact not much better than someone who blew the lot and had to start again.
Don't forget that the above graph ends in 2013. Since then gold has started to return (fall) to the mean and stocks have risen.
I have managed my risks by dumping all of my stocks and property in June and going to cash and Gold (around 10%). I have some long held UST's which I am continuing to hold.
Let's see what happens over the next six months...(or the next few days maybe).
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
I have managed my risks by dumping all of my stocks and property in June and going to cash and Gold (around 10%). I have some long held UST's which I am continuing to hold.
Let's see what happens over the next six months...(or the next few days maybe).
You're not thinking stock market crash Jim? Do you think corporate bonds will fair better than cash?
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
I have managed my risks by dumping all of my stocks and property in June and going to cash and Gold (around 10%). I have some long held UST's which I am continuing to hold.
Let's see what happens over the next six months...(or the next few days maybe).
I wasn't having a shot at you, I know that you will move and won't hold gold in perpetuity.
My point was that "not" taking a risk is not the same as "managing" a risk. They are two different concepts that seem to get confused.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
I see gold is back at the $1400 Australian level this morning, can't keep the darling of investments down it seems. Gold is way up euros as well, probably in most currencies outside of the USA.
I believe according to the consensus the kondrattieff winter kicked off around 2000 which would imply it has at least 6 more years to run roughly, longer if being off the gold standard has buggered it up?
Looks the world is preparing to go back onto a gold standard too. Most of the big engines of power are buying lots of bullion, lots more than you would need for simple internal coin minting like we have seen over the past 60 years.
It's sad to see an empire die like the US is now, sad because of all the people there that will be hurt when the social security and medicare promises fail. What goes up must come down as they say.
Yeah sure we believe ya
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Here is an interesting chart for those wanting to compare the various asset types although property isn't included.
The assets considered by many to be the safest have performed miserably over a long period of time.
Really peter, the work of Jeremy Siegel has been completely debunked, it is simply nonesense and is only taken seriously by day traders now. How many stocks selling in 1800 are still trading today? How many major stocks from 1920? The simple fact is that the individual stocks peak and collapse and new stocks are put into the indices to replace them. If everyone one sold at the top, like in a perfect world, Siegal's chart would be of some value but in reality most people sell at the bottom or nearer to it than the top.
Siegel cherry picks the tops of all broad based indices for 200 years and assumes that everyone invested in stocks sold out before the stocks collapsed and their money vanished. Do you have any idea how many railroad stocks went to Zero early last century? Here is a list of current and defunct automobile manufacturers of the United States. There were over 1,800 automobile manufacturers in the United States from 1896 to 1930. Most went entirely bankrupt and any money invested in them vanished. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_automobile_manufacturers_of_the_United_States#Major_US_automakers
A similar list exists for IT stocks but would Siegel admit that most investors lost their capital on companies like pets.com? Of course he wouldn't. He is a charlatan, a snake oil salesman.
On the other hand every $20 invested in a US gold coin in 1930 still exists today, as that one ounce gold coin, now worth over $1400 Australian. Your call on gold was inaccurate, you assumed it was easing down. Just admit you were wrong and stop all this wrigging around trying to justify the call.
Really peter, the work of Jeremy Siegel has been completely debunked, it is simply nonesense and is only taken seriously by day traders now. How many stocks selling in 1800 are still trading today? How many major stocks from 1920? The simple fact is that the individual stocks peak and collapse and new stocks are put into the indices to replace them. If everyone one sold at the top, like in a perfect world, Siegal's chart would be of some value but in reality most people sell at the bottom or nearer to it than the top.
Siegel cherry picks the tops of all broad based indices for 200 years and assumes that everyone invested in stocks sold out before the stocks collapsed and their money vanished. Do you have any idea how many railroad stocks went to Zero early last century? Here is a list of current and defunct automobile manufacturers of the United States. There were over 1,800 automobile manufacturers in the United States from 1896 to 1930. Most went entirely bankrupt and any money invested in them vanished. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_automobile_manufacturers_of_the_United_States#Major_US_automakers
A similar list exists for IT stocks but would Siegel admit that most investors lost their capital on companies like pets.com? Of course he wouldn't. He is a charlatan, a snake oil salesman.
On the other hand every $20 invested in a US gold coin in 1930 still exists today, as that one ounce gold coin, now worth over $1400 Australian. Your call on gold was inaccurate, you assumed it was easing down. Just admit you were wrong and stop all this wrigging around trying to justify the call.
I don't know how Seigel constructed his index and like most I don't have the time to do research on what others have compiled. One would hope that he used a logical formulae that included an allowance for some share losses over the years.
Lets say that he did a poor job and an investor lost 50% of their money on shares during the accumulation process. then I guess that the amount $1 would have grown to will be just $465,275 which is still more attractive than $3.21
I started this thread because gold was easing down. Not crashing, just easing.
Quote:
On the other hand every $20 invested in a US gold coin in 1930 still exists today, as that one ounce gold coin, now worth over $1400 Australian. Your call on gold was inaccurate, you assumed it was easing down. Just admit you were wrong and stop all this wrigging around trying to justify the call.
Wriggling around??? It does look as though gold has been easing down since about August 2011, but perhaps you interpret the graph differently. Can you explain your interpretation please?
BTW what is a good site to sell gold and silver coins on? Is silver stackers OK? EBay looks a bit hopeless - it doesn't seem to achieve very good prices. I have mainly proof and mint coin sets.
Really peter, the work of Jeremy Siegel has been completely debunked, it is simply nonesense and is only taken seriously by day traders now. How many stocks selling in 1800 are still trading today? How many major stocks from 1920? The simple fact is that the individual stocks peak and collapse and new stocks are put into the indices to replace them. If everyone one sold at the top, like in a perfect world, Siegal's chart would be of some value but in reality most people sell at the bottom or nearer to it than the top.
Siegel cherry picks the tops of all broad based indices for 200 years and assumes that everyone invested in stocks sold out before the stocks collapsed and their money vanished. Do you have any idea how many railroad stocks went to Zero early last century? Here is a list of current and defunct automobile manufacturers of the United States. There were over 1,800 automobile manufacturers in the United States from 1896 to 1930. Most went entirely bankrupt and any money invested in them vanished. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_automobile_manufacturers_of_the_United_States#Major_US_automakers
A similar list exists for IT stocks but would Siegel admit that most investors lost their capital on companies like pets.com? Of course he wouldn't. He is a charlatan, a snake oil salesman.
On the other hand every $20 invested in a US gold coin in 1930 still exists today, as that one ounce gold coin, now worth over $1400 Australian. Your call on gold was inaccurate, you assumed it was easing down. Just admit you were wrong and stop all this wrigging around trying to justify the call.
If the stocks were based on an index (almost certain), then those failed companies would be included in the data - up until the point they are removed from the index. So the chart is an accurate reflection of passive index investing.
My point was that "not" taking a risk is not the same as "managing" a risk. They are two different concepts that seem to get confused.
Not having a proper, working understanding of risk management is one of the biggest differences I see between successful investors and generalist bears (like many that remain here). Understanding risk management is one of the real keys to successfully investing in any asset.
The problem with most of the of the 'generalist' bulls here is that they don't understand systemic risk.
Hence why the best place to be making the money now is from clipping their ticket.
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness. "Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
The problem with most of the of the 'generalist' bulls here is that they don't understand systemic risk.
While private debt-to-GDP is high, our public debt-to-GDP is low. The trouble with trying to pick the top is you can be out by years. With low public debt-to-GDP, the government could stimulate for years and years before the tipping point is reached. Further stimulus is available in the form of foreign buyers: we saw only last night on TV a young Chinese couple buy a luxury apartment for the folks back home. A tipping point will come, but it might be years away.
The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt — Bertrand Russell
Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.
Forum Rules:
The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.
Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.
Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.
This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.
Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ
Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy