True, Gold in Australian dollars is well up from it's $800 low around the time of the GFC. It has been the best performing asset class since then, it has shit all over houses and the stock market, and the way the economy is tanking it will probably go on to new highs as well. I think this is why there is such negative sentiment on the forum with regards to it, a lot of people here probably wish they taken the leap of faith back when it cheap. But then again they probably didn't have the cash to take a position. Tall poppy syndrome.
Even *if* the Fed did want to influence the gold price, why the hell would they short sell the GLD ETF??? This makes no sense? For a start, you generally can't short sell ETFs, unless you have someone to "borrow" existing ETF units from. But even given this, it makes no sense, when you can just sell the CME gold futures contract to your hearts content, with no need for stuffing around with covered shorts in the ETF market etc.....
PS: the SPDR GLD ETF continues to have it's holdings sold down - at the end of 2012 it had about 1250 tonnes of the shiny metal - it's now down to 762 odd tonnes. That's a *lot* of net selling of physical ETF units over 1.5-2 years.....
I tried to help and discuss some things back in early july regurading stocks.
We had both bears and bulls point out to you, just how wrong you were, after you contradicted me, accused me of having inside information, telling me I should not be saying what I was on a public forum, and also accused me of ramping individual stocks prices.
You can talk to the wall from now on, nobody is listening. Why would they if they saw your efforts back in early July.
I thought it was good. I assume most people thought qe was going to be some sort of cash helicopter drop. I guess if that had happened on that scale it would have been inflationary. It looks like it has inflated asset prices, and I assume there will be a deflation when it stops. That may be what we are seeing now.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
I see gold is back at the $1400 Australian level this morning, can't keep the darling of investments down it seems. Gold is way up euros as well, probably in most currencies outside of the USA.
I believe according to the consensus the kondrattieff winter kicked off around 2000 which would imply it has at least 6 more years to run roughly, longer if being off the gold standard has buggered it up?
Looks the world is preparing to go back onto a gold standard too. Most of the big engines of power are buying lots of bullion, lots more than you would need for simple internal coin minting like we have seen over the past 60 years.
It's sad to see an empire die like the US is now, sad because of all the people there that will be hurt when the social security and medicare promises fail. What goes up must come down as they say.
It looks like it has inflated asset prices, and I assume there will be a deflation when it stops. That may be what we are seeing now.
What happens to asset prices during and after the withdrawal of QE is the $64,000 question IMHO.
I think that we can safely assume that the Fed won't withdraw QE in a hard and fast manner, it will be gentle and probably prolonged, but will that still cause asset price deflation? I don't know the answer to the question but I would like to.
My best guess is some softening in asset prices, with those with the weaker fundamentals suffering a bit more than equities with good fundamentals. What are your thoughts?
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
I tried to help and discuss some things back in early july regurading stocks.
We had both bears and bulls point out to you, just how wrong you were, after you contradicted me, accused me of having inside information, telling me I should not be saying what I was on a public forum, and also accused me of ramping individual stocks prices.
You can talk to the wall from now on, nobody is listening. Why would they if they saw your efforts back in early July.
You still harping on about your embarrassing posts on stock trading that also demonstrated your complete clueless-ness?? I welcome anyone to review that thread, or in fact nearly any thread that you have contributed to Ted (if they can identify you among your numerous guest and other poster handles), anytime! The funny thing is that you don't realise what a complete idiot you make of yourself every single time, yet you keep reminding us. This latest foray into trying to "explain" how the gold price is manipulated by ETF naked short selling, how the futures market supposedly works etc is just your latest effort to remind us all of how big a tool you are - just in case anyone was forgetting.....
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
I see gold is back at the $1400 Australian level this morning, can't keep the darling of investments down it seems. Gold is way up euros as well, probably in most currencies outside of the USA.
I believe according to the consensus the kondrattieff winter kicked off around 2000 which would imply it has at least 6 more years to run roughly, longer if being off the gold standard has buggered it up?
Looks the world is preparing to go back onto a gold standard too. Most of the big engines of power are buying lots of bullion, lots more than you would need for simple internal coin minting like we have seen over the past 60 years.
It's sad to see an empire die like the US is now, sad because of all the people there that will be hurt when the social security and medicare promises fail. What goes up must come down as they say.
Yep it's had a solid bounce in Zimbabwe Dollars as well. It's nearly $440,000 per ounce - you will soon be rich in Zimbabwe.
What happens to asset prices during and after the withdrawal of QE is the $64,000 question IMHO.
I think that we can safely assume that the Fed won't withdraw QE in a hard and fast manner, it will be gentle and probably prolonged, but will that still cause asset price deflation? I don't know the answer to the question but I would like to.
My best guess is some softening in asset prices, with those with the weaker fundamentals suffering a bit more than equities with good fundamentals. What are your thoughts?
My thoughts Peter, no rocket science needed.
QE is all but over , for now.Their stock market and economy will now headbackwards , just as it has every other time they stopped QE. There Interest rates will not be rising, unless they are prepared for the unlitmate correction, which they are not. Unless there is a complete collapse and rate rises were somehow forced upon them.
So the conclusion Peter is, that the stock market and economy will now head into further decline , no interest rates rises will happen and they will announce more QE before much longer.
If you google, fed tapering , there was a good graph somhwere that showed all the QE and the market reactions over the years. It was quite good , perhaps someone can find it and post it up. Looking at this graph Peter and you will see what the obvious seems to be.
Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.
Forum Rules:
The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.
Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.
Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.
This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.
Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ
Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy