Cherry pickin bad spellin Mike is at it again. Yeeee Haaaar.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
unions accepting a reduction in minimum wages: CFMEU agrees to slash wages in WA "with a new union-agreement reducing labour costs for employers by up to 20 per cent."
There are always areas in an economy that go against the general trend. And you can't even see the general trend except in hindsight.
I'm still enjoying the bunch of anonymous guys arguing about what they are seeing on the ground. I can't tell the difference between 5% and 6% unemployment by looking at the traffic on the Southeast Freeway and neither can anyone else. Yet some people think they can tell the difference between 6.4% and 6.1%.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off. --Gloria Steinem AREPS™
Cherry pickin bad spellin Mike is at it again. Yeeee Haaaar.
I think mike works in the real estate industry, it's the only explanation for his Hubertus, his lack of understanding about the fundamentals of economics.
Shadow was hopelessly wrong about the Gold Bull Market. What else is he wrong about?
The only peope objecting to the data are bears who simply dont want to believe that employment can improve. The size of the improvement will be revealed over the comming months.
Mike - you are normally above this. Far from a few forum bears being the only objectors, most observers are taking this data with a good grain of salt. There is no point ignoring the fact that for such an amazingly good piece of data to be correct, most related data has to be wrong. This level of employment growth co-existing with these levels of growth in hours worked and job vacancies is all but impossible.
Mike - you are normally above this. Far from a few forum bears being the only objectors, most observers are taking this data with a good grain of salt. There is no point ignoring the fact that for such an amazingly good piece of data to be correct, most related data has to be wrong. This level of employment growth co-existing with these levels of growth in hours worked and job vacancies is all but impossible.
Only one related data release has to be wrong - last month's release. Lots of people were saying that needed to be taken with a grain of salt as well.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off. --Gloria Steinem AREPS™
I can't tell the difference between 5% and 6% unemployment by looking at the traffic on the Southeast Freeway and neither can anyone else. Yet some people think they can tell the difference between 6.4% and 6.1%.
Neither can I.
I was talking about about the difference in twelve months not four weeks.
Mike lacks credibility because he is quick to shout about any positive change in statistics even if it is less than a gnats cock in width.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
Only one related data release has to be wrong - last month's release. Lots of people were saying that needed to be taken with a grain of salt as well.
You're saying that a poor result in a long series of mostly poor results in a generally insipid environment is as questionable as the single best result on record in the same environment?
Last month's release was much more consistent with other data. It was also consistent with the results of the past couple of years.
This months release bears no relationship to either, there was a sudden and extremely large divergence.. Either the biggest improvement on record has occurred in the space of a few weeks with little evidence available to support that conclusion or something is amiss.
There is little point in playing down the general consistency of the last couple of years results unless you are trying to win a point-scoring match rather than gain an understanding - they are what they are and a single, wildly divergent result with not much supporting evidence does not suddenly cast doubt on everything that went before.
Quote:
The following graph shows the month by month growth in full-time (blue columns), part-time (grey columns) and total employment (green line) for the 24 months to August 2014 using seasonally adjusted data. It gives you a good impression of just how flat employment growth has been until that huge spike in part-time employment in the August survey.
As a long-time analyst of time series data, this sort of result is rare and usually associated with a major event. There is nothing that I can think of that would lead to such a spike upwards. Stay tuned.
While full-time and part-time employment growth are fluctuating around the zero line, total employment growth is
So in summary I see little evidence to lead me to suspect that a large movement has occurred in either direction.
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