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Employment explodes - biggest monthly gain on record!; ABS 6202.0 - Labour Force, Australia, August 2014
Topic Started: 11 Sep 2014, 01:16 PM (10,425 Views)
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Jimbo
11 Sep 2014, 09:10 PM
Likewise, I base a lot of my decisions in life on what I see with my own two eyes. I am seeing a fall off in demand for engineering and fabrication trades and I am seeing fabrication materials suppliers begging for orders.
You obviously haven't tried to hire anyone recently.

We just tried to get some fitters and 25% dropped off the list because we didn't do the interview before they found work, and the rest still commanded $60/hr.

Like f*ck employment is tight.
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miw
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Jimbo
11 Sep 2014, 10:00 PM
MY only experience with Chinese real estate is seeing the number of new apartment buildings going up all over the place whenever I have been over there. I did a google earth flyover of Zhongshan and assuming the pictures were at most five years out of date, the amount of new development was astounding. The roads to nowhere were quite common as well.

I spent a fair bit of time in rural southern China as well and it is being rapidly eaten away by new development.

I can't see that pace keeping up forever.

Funny how when you use google earth, nothing lines in up China. Things show up on the map four or five K's away from where they really are?
Yeah. It has been mindblowing. When Beijing was going through its spurt between 2nd and 3rd ringroad, I regularly could not get back to my apt by the way I left it after a biztrip because the streets had moved! That level of activity has been over for quite a few years now, though, and the streets to nowhere have either been built on or now go somewhere.

Never been to rural southern China, but my understanding is that the end result of this building activity associated with urbanisation is supposed to end up with less land being built on, not more. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

The pace in any one place doesn't go on forever. I wouldn't be the least surprised that if you went back to Zhongshan you found it to have quietened down a lot. Or maybe not, given that it is a high tier-3 city stuck next to two tier-1 cities (Shenzhen and Guangzhou) and a tier-2 city (Zhuhai). Development is supposed to be being suppressed as much as possible in the tier-1s and to a lesser extent in the tier-2s, and now the focus is supposed to be to bring people into the lower tier-3 cities and the tier-4 cities. The fact that growth down in the tier-3 cities has stuck around the 10 percent while China as a whole has cooled down below 7.5% suggests it might be working. This is completely on its head from where it was before the GFC. The eastern seaboard was growing at 13-15% while the inland and west was barely making 5% growth.

So I think the development will go on at a fair pace for quite some time yet, because there is an awful lot of backwoods to bring up to scratch yet. Saying that the pace will keep growing (as it has to now with minor hiccups) is an entirely different matter, and I am a bit skeptical of that one. I think I mentioned before I would not be surprised if China was very close to peak steel consumption right now.

The biggest problem with looking at China data is that it is such a huge place it throws off really huge numbers which makes it really hard to work out if you have been bullshitted or snowed. You have no reference point.

An example of this is the claim of 50M empty dwellings. This is not from any formal data. It is a number that some developer pulled out of his arse late last year trying to influence policy. My first reaction (based on the source) was "bullshit." But then I did some searching and realised there are over 400M households in China. 50M/(410M+50M) == ~11% vacant dwellings. Actually I can believe that. There are estimates that have Australia with around 10% of dwellings unoccupied at any one time for one reason and another. And I would expect China to have a higher level than Australia. Another time I was arguing the toss with some guy in Australia about which port should be used for something or other and he shouted at me "how many fucking ports can there be anyhow?!" Well, I didn't know so I checked it out. Turns out there are just on 2000 ports in China, 130-odd of which do import/export. WTF?

So you noticed the offset in Google Earth too, and I am not going crazy. Actually, the error does not even seem to be constant. When I use google maps in Beijing, there is often an error of about 200m which is just enough to have you one block from where you want to be. But sometimes it is right. And the local GPS maps are always correct. Go figure. Error in Google's data? Chinese govt screwing around with the GPS signals? It is a mystery.
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Mike
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11 Sep 2014, 10:39 PM
You obviously haven't tried to hire anyone recently.

We just tried to get some fitters and 25% dropped off the list because we didn't do the interview before they found work, and the rest still commanded $60/hr.

Like f*ck employment is tight.
Thats why unemployment figures are not rising quickly like Bears expect.

The on the ground stuff Jimbo talks about is just crap. The free is more congested then ever, Perths roads keep getting more and more congested by the month. Perth is busy like always, the amount of construction going on in the city is something to see.

What Jimbo says is happening on the ground has little basis in reality. Perhaps things are slow down his way in the far southern suburbs which is only a tiny fractions of Perths population and far from the main action.

Just polar opposites to what he says, things are not booming like they once were but it is certainly still solid activity just the nature of that activity has changed.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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Jimbo
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Mike
11 Sep 2014, 11:34 PM
What Jimbo says is happening on the ground has little basis in reality. Perhaps things are slow down his way in the far southern suburbs which is only a tiny fractions of Perths population and far from the main action.

The Kwinana strip has the heaviest concentration of industry in WA. It is fed by one main road (Patterson-Rockingham-Stock Road). Activity on the main road during rush hour is a good bell weather of the local and wider economy. A year ago you would have been better off walking to work. It isn't that bad now.

You build houses Mike. You borrow money to build houses.

I work in Industrial Construction Engineering. I deal with stakeholders from the big resource companies, major steel suppliers and specialist subcontractors and all of us are seeing our work drop off. I attend contract meetings in Perth at least once a week so I know how things are in the city.

If you think the main action is borrowing money to build units, then you don't understand Perth.

Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Mike
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Jimbo
11 Sep 2014, 11:58 PM
The Kwinana strip has the heaviest concentration of industry in WA. It is fed by one main road (Patterson-Rockingham-Stock Road). Activity on the main road during rush hour is a good bell weather of the local and wider economy. A year ago you would have been better off walking to work. It isn't that bad now.

You build houses Mike. You borrow money to build houses.

I work in Industrial Construction Engineering. I deal with stakeholders from the big resource companies, major steel suppliers and specialist subcontractors and all of us are seeing our work drop off. I attend contract meetings in Perth at least once a week so I know how things are in the city.

If you think the main action is borrowing money to build units, then you don't understand Perth.
Seems you're limited observations are out of touch with the broader economy. Seems you are now focused one one area of the economy and fail yo see the bigger picture. This is why Unemployment in has decreased. You're observations not only run counter to my own but also the data. I think you misrepresent the truth, what else could be or you have very poor vision.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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karl
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this is too jimbo--im one of those fitters yr talking about-of coarse i demand 60 an hour or more ,u people have no idea i might not get work for 3 weeks,its either a feast or a famine when it comes to contracting.
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Lef-tee
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Mike
12 Sep 2014, 03:16 AM
Seems you're limited observations are out of touch with the broader economy. Seems you are now focused one one area of the economy and fail yo see the bigger picture. This is why Unemployment in has decreased. You're observations not only run counter to my own but also the data. I think you misrepresent the truth, what else could be or you have very poor vision.
I would not be staking the farm on the notion that unemployment has decreased and is going to decrease further Mike. The latest labour force data is strongly at odds with just about all other related data that I'm aware of. You typically don't just have the mother of all employment booms in the space of a few short weeks and even if you did, it seems difficult to imagine that most of those people who found new jobs only worked about 10 minutes a week. Notwithstanding that these things don't usually match up neatly - but they should be roughly similar, not wildly divergent.

Just as there is truth in what Peter said yesterday, it is equally true that when something looks too good to be true.....that's usually because it is.
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Jimbo
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Mike
12 Sep 2014, 03:16 AM
Seems you're limited observations are out of touch with the broader economy. Seems you are now focused one one area of the economy and fail yo see the bigger picture. This is why Unemployment in has decreased. You're observations not only run counter to my own but also the data. I think you misrepresent the truth, what else could be or you have very poor vision.
Mike,

We have had two months of data that show a couple of biggish moves in the unemployment level. One went up and the next went down.

Typically, you grab at the slight apparent fall in WA unemployment numbers and try and spin it into a boom that is going to lead to greater things and ultimately higher house prices.

You claim to have your finger on the pulse of the WA wider economy yet I doubt you have ever set foot inside any of those big offices in Perth. You borrow money to build units Mike. You are hardly one of the movers and shakers in the WA economy.

You contradict yourself as well. Some bloke called guest says that 25% of fitters pulled out of interviews because they were a bit slow dealing with applications and you cite that as evidence that I am wrong? One job, one employer and you see that as all the proof you need.

Yet you accuse me of using limited observation to draw conclusions?
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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newjez
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karl
12 Sep 2014, 06:21 AM
this is too jimbo--im one of those fitters yr talking about-of coarse i demand 60 an hour or more ,u people have no idea i might not get work for 3 weeks,its either a feast or a famine when it comes to contracting.
What exactly does a fitter do?
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Mike
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Lef-tee
12 Sep 2014, 09:23 AM
I would not be staking the farm on the notion that unemployment has decreased and is going to decrease further Mike. The latest labour force data is strongly at odds with just about all other related data that I'm aware of. You typically don't just have the mother of all employment booms in the space of a few short weeks and even if you did, it seems difficult to imagine that most of those people who found new jobs only worked about 10 minutes a week. Notwithstanding that these things don't usually match up neatly - but they should be roughly similar, not wildly divergent.

Just as there is truth in what Peter said yesterday, it is equally true that when something looks too good to be true.....that's usually because it is.
I don't think the employment numbers will get much better for WA, very hard to improve upon 5% it is very close to what economists call full employment.

Also the response from the ABS about those who say its figures are wrong.

Quote:
 
The ABS stood by its report. Acting chief statistician Peter Harper said the bureau had thoroughly investigated the survey and not found any evidence of problems.

“The August numbers were compiled in accordance with our high professional standards,” Mr Harper said. “There were no methodological changes made in August that would ­explain the significant increase in part-time employment.”
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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