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Employment explodes - biggest monthly gain on record!; ABS 6202.0 - Labour Force, Australia, August 2014
Topic Started: 11 Sep 2014, 01:16 PM (10,426 Views)
newjez
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Mike
11 Sep 2014, 06:09 PM
Did you say that last month when the unemployment jumped from 6.0 to 6.4%

Or do you only say things like this when it is positive news and not negative?

Until we see more data we just have to take the data as it is, it is mostly part time employment hardly a stellar performance. If it was mostly full time job creation, that would be something.

Can you prove the ABS is wrong, perhaps all those interest rate cuts and constructin is now flowing through into the broader economy. We will see over the next couple of months.

I did not hear Bulls jumping up and down last month with the large increase saying the data was wrong, funny when data is positive how people react. The signs are all out there for stronger job creation, you just need to believe in the other positive indicators. If you dont then data like this will suprise you. While the strength of it suprises me, that fact that it is a positive move does not. I thinking per has a 0.2 reduction this month based on the strength of job advertisements.

Also note the improvement in the participation rate, that is also a solid increase.
I tend to follow lefties advice on unemployment figures. Two months ago the figures looked good, and I admitted as much, but then they over corrected, and have done again. I think the data is shite. They need a better way to determine the figures.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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ThePauk
11 Sep 2014, 07:51 PM
Mmm, part time workers do get annual leave and sick leave pro rata. They also get OT rates.

Shite, how did you know I keep my Shiraz under the bed. Spooky.....
Well perhaps I should have used the word 'casual ' worker.

The stats only show full time and part time, where do the casual jobs show up in the figures then .

So I will say casual jobs are in the part time stats and casual jobs dont have benefits. The employer may put off one full time employer, and have two casual workers on standby who he calls when he needs them.

So can we conclude that casual jobs will be placed into the part time job stats when the figure are reported?
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ThePauk
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11 Sep 2014, 08:09 PM
Well perhaps I should have used the word 'casual ' worker.

The stats only show full time and part time, where do the casual jobs show up in the figures then .

So I will say casual jobs are in the part time stats and casual jobs dont have benefits. The employer may put off one full time employer, and have two casual workers on standby who he calls when he needs them.

So can we conclude that casual jobs will be placed into the part time job stats when the figure are reported?
Good point. I am not 100% sure, but by the ABS definitions, yes casuals are included as PT jobs.
Given that todays data also should next to nothing increase in total hours worked, it is clear to me that more people are getting less hours.

As a person who employed 7 staff, Yep, casuals makes sense in todays environment.
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miw
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newjez
11 Sep 2014, 06:09 PM
I don't think it is a case of this month being wrong, or last month being wrong. The figures have been shown to be unreliable, so their value has decreased. Look elsewhere.
Listen to guys on forums talking about "what I'm seeing on the ground"?
:dry: :dry: :dry:
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
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Lef-tee
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This puts the size of the result in context.....

Posted Image

The red bar is today's result in a series going back 35 years. As you can see, even the turbo-charged economic growth of the credit and mining booms could not compare with what has suddenly occurred in the space of the past few weeks.

If this result is genuine, interest rates need to rise fast before inflation explodes.

The curious thing is just how out of skew this result is with related data. Job vacancies should have been exploding - they have shown some positive movement but on the whole remain relatively insipid, well below the level that delivered far less job growth than this, which does not make sense.

And hours worked rose by 0.1 million hours which equals a fairly lacklustre 0.01%. And yet more people gained employment than any other time on record - in fact, there were more people who gained employment than there were extra hours worked. I would not have thought that 45 minutes would make a job but there you have it.

But yes, we will have to wait for more data to come to hand. There are only two possibilities here - either some serious statistical issue or something extremely interesting and very out of the ordinary has occurred.
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herbie
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6% unemployment was the point the Yanks reckoned their economy might be getting a bit more shipshape and the Fed could/would start backing off QE (or some such as I recall?) Haven't read this whole thread - Are we under 6% or over it? Or are we just naturally and normally quite obviously rather different?
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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Jimbo
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miw
11 Sep 2014, 08:36 PM
Listen to guys on forums talking about "what I'm seeing on the ground"?
Not wanting to start a blazing row or anything, but you disagree with a lot of what is written about China based on your own experience of actually living there. Fair enough.

Likewise, I base a lot of my decisions in life on what I see with my own two eyes. I am seeing a fall off in demand for engineering and fabrication trades and I am seeing fabrication materials suppliers begging for orders.

I am also seeing very few RFQ's for new work in engineering or commercial construction.

Another very good indicator is the amount of traffic on the Kwinana strip in the mornings. If I can get to work in 15 minutes instead of 45, things are slowing down.

I always look at unemployment numbers and I also look behind them as well. This particular months print doesn't make much sense to me because it goes against what I am seeing and hearing. I would have expected little change in Perth over the last month. Big gains and big drops in single months never make sense anyway unless there has been some major development in the economy.

I find it strange in this day and age with everyone connected to IT in some way or another, that unemployment figures can't be more exact?





Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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miw
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Jimbo
11 Sep 2014, 09:10 PM
Not wanting to start a blazing row or anything, but you disagree with a lot of what is written about China based on your own experience of actually living there. Fair enough.
Fair point. Guilty as charged at times. And sometimes, in specific limited areas, I do know what the situation is on the ground, as others might in other areas. For example, I'd say that Massive has a pretty good handle on the upper end of commercial and residential construction and what it will be like in the next 6 months. (But I have also checked the data as well and it agrees with what Massive says - it's pretty shitty.)

But actually I am far more likely to base my point of view on actual data, bearing in mind the limitations of that data. (For example the 70 cities housing data covers maybe 30% of the population of China and only a quarter the tier-3 cities which is where much of the growth is concentrated these days.)

And of course I disagree with a high percentage of what is written about China, because it is crap. The people writing the stuff don't read Chinese, don't have access to the data in anything but a very filtered way, and have no business writing about China in the first place. Typically, by the time they catch onto something, it was old news months ago, and govt policy has changed to adjust for it.

For something like the actual rate of unemployment I'd say nobody has a wide enough view to know what is "happening on the ground." Like it or not, we have to accept that what the ABS comes out with is the best estimate around. Outliers happen and we just have to wait for time to correct them. Or not as the case may be. Lef-tee has made a couple of good points about possible contradictions in the last set though. But do the contradictions stem from last month being wrong and this month being right, or the other way around?

BTW if you share my aversion to taking the word of some anonymous guy on a forum, the data on real estate is all here:
http://data.dichan.com/
and commentary is here:
http://news.dichan.sina.com.cn/
Edited by miw, 11 Sep 2014, 09:45 PM.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
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Jimbo
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miw
11 Sep 2014, 09:43 PM
BTW if you share my aversion to taking the word of some anonymous guy on a forum, the data on real estate is all here:
MY only experience with Chinese real estate is seeing the number of new apartment buildings going up all over the place whenever I have been over there. I did a google earth flyover of Zhongshan and assuming the pictures were at most five years out of date, the amount of new development was astounding. The roads to nowhere were quite common as well.

I spent a fair bit of time in rural southern China as well and it is being rapidly eaten away by new development.

I can't see that pace keeping up forever.

Funny how when you use google earth, nothing lines in up China. Things show up on the map four or five K's away from where they really are?

Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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newjez
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miw
11 Sep 2014, 08:36 PM
Listen to guys on forums talking about "what I'm seeing on the ground"?
:dry: :dry: :dry:
There are many other indicators.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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