Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]


Reply
Employment explodes - biggest monthly gain on record!; ABS 6202.0 - Labour Force, Australia, August 2014
Topic Started: 11 Sep 2014, 01:16 PM (10,427 Views)
Mike
Default APF Avatar


newjez
11 Sep 2014, 05:07 PM
Well, I won't be taking financial advice from you Mike. If you cannot be unbiased about figures which are obviously wrong then you will lose your clients shed loads of money.
Did you say that last month when the unemployment jumped from 6.0 to 6.4%

Or do you only say things like this when it is positive news and not negative?

Until we see more data we just have to take the data as it is, it is mostly part time employment hardly a stellar performance. If it was mostly full time job creation, that would be something.

Can you prove the ABS is wrong, perhaps all those interest rate cuts and constructin is now flowing through into the broader economy. We will see over the next couple of months.

I did not hear Bulls jumping up and down last month with the large increase saying the data was wrong, funny when data is positive how people react. The signs are all out there for stronger job creation, you just need to believe in the other positive indicators. If you dont then data like this will suprise you. While the strength of it suprises me, that fact that it is a positive move does not. I thinking per has a 0.2 reduction this month based on the strength of job advertisements.

Also note the improvement in the participation rate, that is also a solid increase.
Edited by Mike, 11 Sep 2014, 06:13 PM.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
newjez
Member Avatar


miw
11 Sep 2014, 05:59 PM
No, I don't think you can see turning points in a memoryless series at the time they happen, regardless of how accurate the series is or how you massage it for smoothness. It is the whole fallacy of technical analysis for stocks, except technical analysis has some small basis in reality because the series probably does have some memory.


The ground is a big place and nobody can see what is happening on the ground. This month's numbers have the same expected error as last month's numbers. This month disagrees with the a priori hypothesis so they must be the ones that are wrong.
I don't think it is a case of this month being wrong, or last month being wrong. The figures have been shown to be unreliable, so their value has decreased. Look elsewhere.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
GloomBoomDoom
Member Avatar


Interest rates need to rise ASAP at least 50 or 100 brakehorsepowers.
MSE
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Guest
Unregistered

peter fraser
11 Sep 2014, 02:23 PM
There is a long established tradition that goes something like -

"If the data is bad it must be true,

If the data is good it must be a lie or an error in the collection process"

We wouldn't want to change a long established tradition by thinking that the better numbers actually mean anything.
There is a tradition alright Peter, a tradition of twisting the figures to make them appear better than they are, and the other one, when that's not working, change the formula to make it work.

You mentions something about changing the formula, what was done, and is this the cover up.

Jobs here are finished, everyone knows they are bullshit figures and have not surged as reported. The trend is clear, they tell me around 125,000 jobs were created, only 14,000 full time jobs. Is shows us full time jobs are being replaced by part time jobs as employers to to aviod government red tape overtime, annual leave and sick pay ect. It reduces the emplouers costs, have two or three part time workers working two days a week after sacking one full time employee. No overtime, no annual leave, no sick pay etc. The government has forced this situation upon employers, and everybody is doing it , from the small employer to much larger companies or corperations.

This is what is happening, not matter what the overall stats say, the trend from full time to part time clear. Part time dont pay mortgages or rents. So good luck to all the dopes buying units in every capital and call it and investment. The are all now being purchased by leveraged investors and will all be looking for tennants who now have no job or part time ones. Is spells out another future trend that will develop from this. The massive overbuilding in every capital and swap from full time employment to part time employment will see rents decline in all capitals. The further again follow on trend from this , will be over leveraged investors who can't find Tennant's or Tennant's to pay the rent they wanted or thought they would get. The investor will struggle further with more costs out of his own pocket and will be facing job issues of their own to deal with as well.

This is going to be fun...... :bye:

"REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
stinkbug
Member Avatar


Before we go looking for reds under the bed I suggest we take a breath and calm down. Let's watch the trend over the next few months.
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
ThePauk
Member Avatar
Diamond Member
Guest
11 Sep 2014, 07:41 PM
There is a tradition alright Peter, a tradition of twisting the figures to make them appear better than they are, and the other one, when that's not working, change the formula to make it work.

You mentions something about changing the formula, what was done, and is this the cover up.

Jobs here are finished, everyone knows they are bullshit figures and have not surged as reported. The trend is clear, they tell me around 125,000 jobs were created, only 14,000 full time jobs. Is shows us full time jobs are being replaced by part time jobs as employers to to aviod government red tape overtime, annual leave and sick pay ect. It reduces the emplouers costs, have two or three part time workers working two days a week after sacking one full time employee. No overtime, no annual leave, no sick pay etc. The government has forced this situation upon employers, and everybody is doing it , from the small employer to much larger companies or corperations.

This is what is happening, not matter what the overall stats say, the trend from full time to part time clear. Part time dont pay mortgages or rents. So good luck to all the dopes buying units in every capital and call it and investment. The are all now being purchased by leveraged investors and will all be looking for tennants who now have no job or part time ones. Is spells out another future trend that will develop from this. The massive overbuilding in every capital and swap from full time employment to part time employment will see rents decline in all capitals. The further again follow on trend from this , will be over leveraged investors who can't find Tennant's or Tennant's to pay the rent they wanted or thought they would get. The investor will struggle further with more costs out of his own pocket and will be facing job issues of their own to deal with as well.

This is going to be fun...... :bye:
Mmm, part time workers do get annual leave and sick leave pro rata. They also get OT rates.
stinkbug
11 Sep 2014, 07:48 PM
Before we go looking for reds under the bed I suggest we take a breath and calm down. Let's watch the trend over the next few months.
Shite, how did you know I keep my Shiraz under the bed. Spooky.....
Edited by ThePauk, 11 Sep 2014, 07:51 PM.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
stinkbug
Member Avatar


ThePauk
11 Sep 2014, 07:51 PM

Shite, how did you know I keep my Shiraz under the bed. Spooky.....
I found it when you came home unexpectedly and I was hiding there. :lol
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
ThePauk
Member Avatar
Diamond Member
stinkbug
11 Sep 2014, 07:53 PM
I found it when you came home unexpectedly and I was hiding there. :lol
Well I am glad you left me a couple as after a hard day of passive income, I need a red now and then.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Drgonzo
Member Avatar


all the more reason to doubt the data - constant significant variances and corrections, people on this forum rely on it too much.
Edited by Drgonzo, 11 Sep 2014, 08:04 PM.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
stinkbug
Member Avatar


ThePauk
11 Sep 2014, 08:00 PM
Well I am glad you left me a couple as after a hard day of passive income, I need a red now and then.
I like a good red too. Heavy cab for me, though.
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
ZetaBoards - Free Forum Hosting
Create a free forum in seconds.
Learn More · Sign-up Now
Go to Next Page
« Previous Topic · Australian Property Forum · Next Topic »
Reply



Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.

Forum Rules: The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.

Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.

Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.

This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.

For more information go to Limitations on Exclusive Rights: Fair Use

Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ

Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy