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Employment explodes - biggest monthly gain on record!; ABS 6202.0 - Labour Force, Australia, August 2014
Topic Started: 11 Sep 2014, 01:16 PM (10,428 Views)
newjez
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Mike
11 Sep 2014, 02:33 PM
I agree.

The economy does have a lot of positive data just the media hype a few negatives which hides the true strength of the economy.

GDP numbers are good, could be better but far from negative. Leading indicators point to increasing GDP growth for the September quarter. Job advertisements up 8% and been trending up for some time now. Sooner or later it was going to appear in the employment figures.

It's the same in WA, media hype mining job losses when it is only a fraction of total employment. Employment growth is outpacing job losses and has been for some time, hence why we have a 5.0% unemployment rate. The truth is in the data, good or bad.
Well, I won't be taking financial advice from you Mike. If you cannot be unbiased about figures which are obviously wrong then you will lose your clients shed loads of money.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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skamy
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Cool
11 Sep 2014, 03:55 PM
It is obvious the uptrend in unemployment from the GFC is broken, and we as of this month have broken a key level at 6.2%.

Should be a fast move to 5% next year, after that we will have to wait and see.

There are simply too many big drivers of jobs growth out there and the punters know it. Many industries are doing well and especially housing.

As much as I hate to admit it Australian housing is booming again and there is large scale investment in housing to drive jobs growth.
Nail on head. The real economy is recovering from the GFC eg home construction and retail and these are the big employers.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Lef-tee
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peter fraser
11 Sep 2014, 02:23 PM
There is a long established tradition that goes something like -

"If the data is bad it must be true,

If the data is good it must be a lie or an error in the collection process"

We wouldn't want to change a long established tradition by thinking that the better numbers actually mean anything.
There is an element of truth in that statement Peter but I trust that you understand the magnitude of this reversal and the very scant evidence to support it's actual existence in reality?

This says that the economy is currently undergoing an economic boom that outshines the headiest days of the mining boom - can you see compelling evidence that this is the case?
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Jimbo
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skamy
11 Sep 2014, 05:21 PM
Nail on head. The real economy is recovering from the GFC eg home construction and retail and these are the big employers.
Retail and Home building are not the real economy? They contribute nothing to exports (unless you count foreign investment buying and tourist spending as exports).

Also, retail pays piss poor wages and is generally part time.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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lulldapull
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This topic is a lame attempt at propaganda.

Has anyone asked the question what jobs were created?

Let me guess, bar tenders, coffee barristas, short order cooks, taxi drivers, low wage construction workers, waiters and waitresses?

Or is it the snake oil loan sharks and real estate self employed property spruickers? :lol

The more we look into it, the more this hollowed out economy is starting to imitate the bankrupt U.S.
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peter fraser
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Lef-tee
11 Sep 2014, 05:39 PM
There is an element of truth in that statement Peter but I trust that you understand the magnitude of this reversal and the very scant evidence to support it's actual existence in reality?

This says that the economy is currently undergoing an economic boom that outshines the headiest days of the mining boom - can you see compelling evidence that this is the case?
I really don't place much store in one months data be it good or bad, but I do have to laugh at some of the contorted excuses that people on various blogsites have made for what is a good number even allowing for some exaggeration caused by a change of the sample.

Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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skamy
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Lef-tee
11 Sep 2014, 05:39 PM
There is an element of truth in that statement Peter but I trust that you understand the magnitude of this reversal and the very scant evidence to support it's actual existence in reality?

This says that the economy is currently undergoing an economic boom that outshines the headiest days of the mining boom - can you see compelling evidence that this is the case?
Leftie it shows that that employment is growing in the parts of the economy most affected by the GFC and that this is almost making up for job losses from mining construction.

I find trend is much more reliable to watch and overall trend unemployment is up very slightly and has been rising since Capex spending peaked. This growth is moderated by the recovery in the rest of the economy.

You are expecting unemployment to rise and that is very very unlikely from here with all the new building starts and the nascent retail recovery.
Edited by skamy, 11 Sep 2014, 05:58 PM.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Jimbo
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Cool
11 Sep 2014, 03:55 PM
It is obvious the uptrend in unemployment from the GFC is broken, and we as of this month have broken a key level at 6.2%.
Are you implying that unemployment has key support levels like the price of Gold or Stocks?

That's a new one on me.

Meanwhile, the numbers of employed are only half the equation.

It is how many hours they work and how much they earn that makes up the complete picture.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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skamy
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Jimbo
11 Sep 2014, 05:44 PM
Retail and Home building are not the real economy? They contribute nothing to exports (unless you count foreign investment buying and tourist spending as exports).

Also, retail pays piss poor wages and is generally part time.
Posted Image

The economy is not just exports.

Increasing jobs in retail and construction have a very positive effect on GDP. Improved retail and construction go hand in hand with improved house prices, whether this is logical and rational is a different thing, but it is certainly an effect that has been observed consistently in markets throughout the world.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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miw
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Lef-tee
11 Sep 2014, 01:43 PM
Yes, it is best to focus on the trend for accuracy. But the short-term seasonally adjusted numbers can give hints of turning points not apparent in the trend for some time and so are useful.

But in this particular case something is very clearly out of whack.
No, I don't think you can see turning points in a memoryless series at the time they happen, regardless of how accurate the series is or how you massage it for smoothness. It is the whole fallacy of technical analysis for stocks, except technical analysis has some small basis in reality because the series probably does have some memory.

Lef-tee
11 Sep 2014, 01:32 PM
Yes, the ABS are attributing around 47 000 of the new jobs to sample rotation. However, even accounting for that it would still be an extremely strong result, very much at odds with what we see happening on the ground.
The ground is a big place and nobody can see what is happening on the ground. This month's numbers have the same expected error as last month's numbers. This month disagrees with the a priori hypothesis so they must be the ones that are wrong.
Edited by miw, 11 Sep 2014, 06:02 PM.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
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