"If man is to survive, he will have learned to take a delight in the essential differences between men and between cultures. He will learn that differences in ideas and attitudes are a delight, part of life's exciting variety, not something to fear." - Gene Roddenberry
"Balloon animals are a great way to teach children that the things they love dearly, may spontaneously explode" -- Lee Camp
Not really interested skamy - you're clutching at straws ever harder, as though it were possible to alter reality to the one you want to see just by arguing in ever more convoluted fashion that we're not seeing what we think we're seeing.
You are not interested when the facts don't suit. It is not me who is clutching at straws. Two months ago when everyone was jumping up and down about the record unemployment levels - I showed people how stable the trend data was. Then again when the supposed huge increase in employment, again the trend was in fact very stable.
It is you who is clutching at straws talking about a completely imaginary increase in unemployment. According to most economics it looks like we will have another boring month this month and predictions are that unemployment will remain at around 6% next year. Hardly any drama there.
IMHO it is you who clutches at straws as you have such a set view on what you want the economy to do, you are just in disbelief when the facts don't suit.
I also take it you have no intention of backing up your claims about GDP and the mining investment boom.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Too many Australians associate fiscal surpluses with good economic times - not realising household debt growth was the compensating factor. I watched an episode of Q&A a couple of weeks ago, and what I saw sent me into mild depression. Average Australians suggesting they are happy to pay more tax to "fix the budget". I think our experience will be very close to Europe.
God I hope not And it would all be so totally and utterly unnecessary.
skamy
8 Oct 2014, 11:45 PM
You are not interested when the facts don't suit. It is not me who is clutching at straws. Two months ago when everyone was jumping up and down about the record unemployment levels - I showed people how stable the trend data was. Then again when the supposed huge increase in employment, again the trend was in fact very stable.
It is you who is clutching at straws talking about a completely imaginary increase in unemployment. According to most economics it looks like we will have another boring month this month and predictions are that unemployment will remain at around 6% next year. Hardly any drama there.
IMHO it is you who clutches at straws as you have such a set view on what you want the economy to do, you are just in disbelief when the facts don't suit.
I also take it you have no intention of backing up your claims about GDP and the mining investment boom.
You can have this pointless little tit-for-tat skamy, I don't care. Now we can both feel better Every argument you make has been countered with facts pointed out by myself and others but you just go round in circles ignoring what doesn't suit you.
I'm satisfied knowing that my understanding is probably correct. If I consider the facts have changed, I will change my mind. But I see no reason to do so yet.
You can have this pointless little tit-for-tat skamy, I don't care. Now we can both feel better Every argument you make has been countered with facts pointed out by myself and others but you just go round in circles ignoring what doesn't suit you.
Skamy has one goal and one goal only and that is to derail the man talking on the street.
The method of threadjacking:
1)Cherry pick................................copy paste a few tables/graphs. 2)delusions...................................make up unbelievable stories that even the most hardcore contrarion cant believe. 3)The backwards man....................talk the complete opposite of what the talk on the street is. 4)Digression.................................Change the subject in a very sneaky subtle way. 5)the repetitive senile....................Nuff said
Skamy is like a thread killing millipede that has been sent from outerspace!
I can see skamy's point. We had good gdp growth in the 1990s without a mining boom, and a normal housing market. The big difference was very strong household consumption driven by - boomers at peak consumption - substantial increase in private debt from a very low base
That is now behind us. It is hard to see where the tailwinds are to get consumption back to 6-8% per annum.
This is a graph I made from the ABS total working persons data since 1978. It was you, b-b, who taught me all this new jiggery-pokery MMT stuff where apparently all you need is a person with debt serviceability to create a loan. So if I have understood you correctly then there should be plenty of room for credit growth which has stalled since around 2004.
.
In Australia there is not really an observable peak of people at peak consumer spending age due to the boomers; for two reasons a) the population is growing so much and b) GenX and genY are also very large cohorts. Here are some links to the profiles of 1991,2005 and 2014 that show this.
Many posters on here only look at the % debt to income and they say we have such high levels compared to other countries. They do not realize that this statistic actually tells you more about wealth distribution than personal debt levels. (EXAMPLE HERE). The example shows two scenarios where people capable of servicing debt use the same debt ratios, but having a larger cohort unable to afford to buy distorts the data giving the false impression that one scenario has higher individual debt levels.
Personal debt levels have not changed much in Australia over three decades. ( Here)
It appears that, like Europe and the US, people in Australia have been debt averse and have been living in a rather long period of self imposed austerity.
Kulganis
8 Oct 2014, 11:27 PM
But that doesn't tell the story Skamy wants told.
Evidence please. Show me the data for WA and how it is materially different.
doubleview
9 Oct 2014, 09:01 AM
Skamy has one goal and one goal only and that is to derail the man talking on the street.
The method of threadjacking:
1)Cherry pick................................copy paste a few tables/graphs. 2)delusions...................................make up unbelievable stories that even the most hardcore contrarion cant believe. 3)The backwards man....................talk the complete opposite of what the talk on the street is. 4)Digression.................................Change the subject in a very sneaky subtle way. 5)the repetitive senile....................Nuff said
Skamy is like a thread killing millipede that has been sent from outerspace!
Good 4 a laugh though!
Doubleview the man on the street talks whatever the MSM wants him to talk about. It is up to you whether you want to blindly follow that shit.
I deal with data and facts. You just get upset because I spoil your little bear circle jerks. Go to Macrobusiness if you want to maintain your delusions.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Evidence please. Show me the data for WA and how it is materially different.
The onus is on you to provide the evidence...
You and Perthite were talking about WA. Then you gave graphs that used national data, which doesn't tell us anything useful.
"If man is to survive, he will have learned to take a delight in the essential differences between men and between cultures. He will learn that differences in ideas and attitudes are a delight, part of life's exciting variety, not something to fear." - Gene Roddenberry
"Balloon animals are a great way to teach children that the things they love dearly, may spontaneously explode" -- Lee Camp
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