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Employment explodes - biggest monthly gain on record!; ABS 6202.0 - Labour Force, Australia, August 2014
Topic Started: 11 Sep 2014, 01:16 PM (10,416 Views)
Perthite
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peter fraser
11 Sep 2014, 02:23 PM
There is a long established tradition that goes something like -

"If the data is bad it must be true,

If the data is good it must be a lie or an error in the collection process"

We wouldn't want to change a long established tradition by thinking that the better numbers actually mean anything.
:tu:
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skamy
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Lef-tee
8 Oct 2014, 04:34 PM


Yes.




The contribution made by mining investment this time round goes far beyond anything seen previously.




Their monetary policy regime is supporting some modest growth, thought not yet enough. The problem is that for the first time, they are almost out of ammunition. They really have just one more bullet left in the gun, only one more significant spurt of interest rate cutting before it becomes impossible to make borrowing money any cheaper. And we have not yet seen the end of the mining investment boom, it is beginning to fade now but will be making a decent contribution for a while yet.

I grow tired of you continuously mis-representing information - it is not that the second stage will do harm of itself, rather that it's contribution is likely to fall to an extent that it becomes too small to act as a major economic driver and there needs to be something solid coming along to replace it, which there does not currently appear to be.
Yes sure Leftee

And WA is gonna collapse because you did not see enough coal trains in Queensland
:re:

The rest of the economy has been in a downturn and if that economy picks up it will do more for GDP than the best years of mining investment.

Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Perthite
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skamy
8 Oct 2014, 04:44 PM
Yes sure Leftee

And WA is gonna collapse because you did not see enough coal trains in Queensland
:re:

The rest of the economy has been in a downturn and if that economy picks up it will do more for GDP than the best years of mining investment.
So more than 6% yoy GDP growth that we saw during the boom.

In effect you would be predicting another boom?

wtf? That is some imagination you have there.
Edited by Perthite, 8 Oct 2014, 04:57 PM.
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skamy
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Perthite
8 Oct 2014, 04:56 PM
So more than 6% yoy GDP growth that we saw during the boom.

In effect you would be predicting another boom?

wtf? That is some imagination you have there.
Posted Image

We have not seen a GDP growth of 6% since the late nineties.

Posted Image

Show me the big contribution to GDP from the mining investment boom.

GDP was much better when we had a normal housing market, before any of these huge construction projects.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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b_b
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Lef-tee
8 Oct 2014, 04:34 PM

Their monetary policy regime is supporting some modest growth, thought not yet enough. The problem is that for the first time, they are almost out of ammunition. They really have just one more bullet left in the gun, only one more significant spurt of interest rate cutting before it becomes impossible to make borrowing money any cheaper. And we have not yet seen the end of the mining investment boom, it is beginning to fade now but will be making a decent contribution for a while yet.
I agree with this.

1. Housing starts are probably going to peak this year or early next, and I reckon industry is near capacity (200-210k homes pa is as much as we can generate). That means Housing will contribute very little growth in CY2015
2. Mining CAPEX will subtract from CY2015
3. Government will try to subtract from CY2015

So By now we have covered a huge part of the economy which is either flat or declining in CY2015. So other sectors have to really boom (+6%) to get the average growth rate any where near trend...but...


4. Non Mining Business investment is growing - but not enough. They will need to see more demand before increasing investment - but that is not coming form the first three points above.
5. Consumer is ok - not booming. Job losses in Govt, and mining will not help.

Problem is, cutting rates next year will not help matters. But the RBA will probably do it anyway.
Edited by b_b, 8 Oct 2014, 06:04 PM.
(S – I) + (T - G) + (M - X) = 0
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Lef-tee
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Quote:
 
Show me the big contribution to GDP from the mining investment boom.

GDP was much better when we had a normal housing market, before any of these huge construction projects.


Not really interested skamy - you're clutching at straws ever harder, as though it were possible to alter reality to the one you want to see just by arguing in ever more convoluted fashion that we're not seeing what we think we're seeing.

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b_b
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Lef-tee
8 Oct 2014, 09:47 PM


Not really interested skamy - you're clutching at straws ever harder, as though it were possible to alter reality to the one you want to see just by arguing in ever more convoluted fashion that we're not seeing what we think we're seeing.
I can see skamy's point. We had good gdp growth in the 1990s without a mining boom, and a normal housing market. The big difference was very strong household consumption driven by
- boomers at peak consumption
- substantial increase in private debt from a very low base

That is now behind us. It is hard to see where the tailwinds are to get consumption back to 6-8% per annum.
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Lef-tee
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b_b
8 Oct 2014, 10:35 PM
I can see skamy's point. We had good gdp growth in the 1990s without a mining boom, and a normal housing market. The big difference was very strong household consumption driven by
- boomers at peak consumption
- substantial increase in private debt from a very low base

That is now behind us. It is hard to see where the tailwinds are to get consumption back to 6-8% per annum.
Absolutely. I'm just referring to skamy's habit of cherry-picking only things that suit her argument and ignoring that which does not, attempting to fabricate a reality that does not actually exist. Which is exactly what she accuses housing bears of doing. Talk about the pot calling the kettle black.

I think government will be forced to do more rowing of the boat. Because they are beholden to neo-liberal ideals they will resist it as long as possible but in the end I think they will have no choice but to come around. Once this occurs, good strong growth and low unemployment should be the outcome - but it's the interim that concerns me. Just look at Europe blindly committing Hari Kari, no matter how devastating the failure they can't even bring themselves to admit that they are wrong and so are unable to change course.
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b_b
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Lef-tee
8 Oct 2014, 10:45 PM
Absolutely. I'm just referring to skamy's habit of cherry-picking only things that suit her argument and ignoring that which does not, attempting to fabricate a reality that does not actually exist. Which is exactly what she accuses housing bears of doing. Talk about the pot calling the kettle black.

I think government will be forced to do more rowing of the boat. Because they are beholden to neo-liberal ideals they will resist it as long as possible but in the end I think they will have no choice but to come around. Once this occurs, good strong growth and low unemployment should be the outcome - but it's the interim that concerns me. Just look at Europe blindly committing Hari Kari, no matter how devastating the failure they can't even bring themselves to admit that they are wrong and so are unable to change course.
I think you are too optimistic.

Too many Australians associate fiscal surpluses with good economic times - not realising household debt growth was the compensating factor. I watched an episode of Q&A a couple of weeks ago, and what I saw sent me into mild depression. Average Australians suggesting they are happy to pay more tax to "fix the budget". I think our experience will be very close to Europe.
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Perthite
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skamy
8 Oct 2014, 05:25 PM
Posted Image

We have not seen a GDP growth of 6% since the late nineties.

Posted Image

Show me the big contribution to GDP from the mining investment boom.

GDP was much better when we had a normal housing market, before any of these huge construction projects.
WA ffs. Not the rest.
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