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Employment explodes - biggest monthly gain on record!; ABS 6202.0 - Labour Force, Australia, August 2014
Topic Started: 11 Sep 2014, 01:16 PM (10,421 Views)
Drgonzo
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The wild variances in month on month data only proves how unreliable it is - just sayin.
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Drgonzo
13 Sep 2014, 09:16 AM
The wild variances in month on month data only proves how unreliable it is - just sayin.
Shows what a load of shit being reported, last month, record jobs decline, this month, biggest gain in 35 years. Am I supposed to believe this shit. The trend is clear, were fkkkd.

Look at miw, telling us he is on the ground and sees and knows whats going on :lol

You could just be another dope who thinks they know what is going on but would not really have a clue.

I dont live in Perth, and I dont need too to know whats happenning on the ground. I told timmy what would happen, he lives there and said the same shit you do. He thought he knew what was going on too, as you claim, but he did not have a clue and lived there.
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Mike
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miw
12 Sep 2014, 07:59 PM
There are always areas in an economy that go against the general trend. And you can't even see the general trend except in hindsight.


I'm still enjoying the bunch of anonymous guys arguing about what they are seeing on the ground. I can't tell the difference between 5% and 6% unemployment by looking at the traffic on the Southeast Freeway and neither can anyone else. Yet some people think they can tell the difference between 6.4% and 6.1%.
Jimbo seems to think he can tell the difference in traffic from a decline from 5.2% to 5.0% unemployment. Even though 60-70,000 new people arrived over the past year and tens of thousands of new full time jobs created, traffic is in decline according to Jimbo.

All I see is congested roads and freeways getting worse by the year, I might move to Jimbos "Never Never" land, at least it does not have bad traffic.
Lef-tee
12 Sep 2014, 10:12 PM


Mike - you are normally above this. Far from a few forum bears being the only objectors, most observers are taking this data with a good grain of salt. There is no point ignoring the fact that for such an amazingly good piece of data to be correct, most related data has to be wrong. This level of employment growth co-existing with these levels of growth in hours worked and job vacancies is all but impossible.
Point taken.

As I said more will be revealed over the coming months, my general opinion is the last two months cancel each other out.

However we do have a number of key indicators pointing to an economy that is strengthening, so I would not be surprised to see unemployment continue to fall in the next few months, perhaps not as big as this months fall.
Edited by Mike, 13 Sep 2014, 12:58 PM.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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Sydneyite
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Massive
12 Sep 2014, 06:43 PM
OR
median income decline:
http://www.news.com.au/finance/work/australian-bureau-of-statistics-data-reveals-weekly-income-in-decline/story-e6frfm9r-1226943356464
"New wage data from Australian Bureau of Statistics shows the median weekly earning for Australians was $950 in August 2013, with incomes dropping two per cent from 2012 when inflation is taken into account."
Just in this one:

Quote:
 
New wage data from Australian Bureau of Statistics shows the median weekly earning for Australians was $950 in August 2013, with incomes dropping two per cent from 2012 when inflation is taken into account.
So note this is talking about "real-terms" decline, not nominal. Also, median income includes part-timers and so on, so if the proportion of part-time jobs has grown (for reasons that might be perfectly healthy), then that would in part explain these figures as well.
Edited by Sydneyite, 13 Sep 2014, 01:20 PM.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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goldbug
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Mike
13 Sep 2014, 12:54 PM
Jimbo seems to think he can.. waffle waffle rabbit rabbit
You are the only poster here mike that can crock on for 6 paragraphs and not convey a single useful piece of information. All your calls from the iron ore price to perth property have been so far wide of the mark that you have become THE contrary indicator. If you said sell perth houses I'd be the first one on a plane over there to buy one. You're the quinticenncial Fuckstick.
Shadow was hopelessly wrong about the Gold Bull Market.
What else is he wrong about?
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Lef-tee
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Quote:
 
Point taken.

As I said more will be revealed over the coming months, my general opinion is the last two months cancel each other out.

However we do have a number of key indicators pointing to an economy that is strengthening, so I would not be surprised to see unemployment continue to fall in the next few months, perhaps not as big as this months fall.


I would agree that there has been a modest improvement of late, mainly on the the back of the lowest interest rates in half a century.

They work by increasing the amount of borrowed money washing through the economy. Thing is, we are now almost at the end of our ability to make borrowing money more attractive by making it cheaper to repay. We are hovering just above the floor.

My opinion is that we are likely to face stiff headwinds as the vast sums of money injected into the economy via mining investment progressively dry up and we can no longer just open the credit taps wider to make up for it. We have been swigging at the monetary policy medicine bottle for a long time and now it's almost empty - we can't just go out and buy another one, once it's been used up, that's it. Governments still don't get that they need to be using fiscal policy to nation-build rather than cut the only source of spending growth that can usually occur under such conditions. That's why I'm concerned.

I keep looking for big, sustainable drivers of spending growth that don't involve government but I'm having a hard time seeing any on the horizon.
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skamy
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I think this will be the final nail in the coffin for those who bought into crash predictions for Australia since the GFC.

The truth is that the economy is recovering, people are spending again and people are building homes again. These are the two largest sources of jobs in our economy and these markets have been dire for years.
The so called mining investment boom prevented a larger downturn, but the last few years have seen a lot of construction and building and retail companies go to the wall.

Now we are emerging from this crisis with the rest of the world and the mainstream economy is growing again. People predicted more of a hiccup moving from the mining construction boom but it looks like that is not gonna have as much effect as people thought.

The news will be all good from here as sure as eggs is eggs

Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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doubleview
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skamy
19 Sep 2014, 12:57 AM
I think this will be the final nail in the coffin for those who bought into crash predictions for Australia since the GFC.

The truth is that the economy is recovering, people are spending again and people are building homes again. These are the two largest sources of jobs in our economy and these markets have been dire for years.
The so called mining investment boom prevented a larger downturn, but the last few years have seen a lot of construction and building and retail companies go to the wall.

Now we are emerging from this crisis with the rest of the world and the mainstream economy is growing again. People predicted more of a hiccup moving from the mining construction boom but it looks like that is not gonna have as much effect as people thought.

The news will be all good from here as sure as eggs is eggs

Perths in big big trouble and the cracks are showing, this is not going to end pretty.

Your deluded fantasy land paradigm of ''houses have never been cheaper'' ''the young are whinging whiners'' blah blah blah cant change it!.

The bears are coming in shooter Macgavin's style to get your house on the cheap grandma & there's nothing u can do about it!

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skamy
19 Sep 2014, 12:57 AM
I think this will be the final nail in the coffin for those who bought into crash predictions for Australia since the GFC.

The truth is that the economy is recovering, people are spending again and people are building homes again. These are the two largest sources of jobs in our economy and these markets have been dire for years.
The so called mining investment boom prevented a larger downturn, but the last few years have seen a lot of construction and building and retail companies go to the wall.

Now we are emerging from this crisis with the rest of the world and the mainstream economy is growing again. People predicted more of a hiccup moving from the mining construction boom but it looks like that is not gonna have as much effect as people thought.

The news will be all good from here as sure as eggs is eggs

Final nail in the coffin allright skamy.

You jibber so much bs skamy, you have turned manic in the last six months, as the obvious bdcomes clear to you. The clear delusion and desperation of your more recent postings show you have not only overtaken bp for sheer madness but have obviously hit the panic button.

You want to tell me the economy is recovering here and overseas. Its not , only last week the euro drop their rate from 0.15%, to 0.05%. I mean , what a show of desperation, wtf is that going to achiveve. Just closer to the implosion point from which ratds can no longer be lowered, but there is plenty of room to the upside when for whatever reason , they may be forced up.

Six years on the US still has ratea at 0.25%, the only reason it is not right on zero is because it would freak people out. So they left it there to make it look like they were not right at zero, to make people think they have some room to move if need be :lol

The only thing that has improved is stock market prices, the everyday american on average is still going backwards, represented in food stamps alone since the gfc surfaced in 2008, plenty of other measures too, not to mention their extra 10 trillion in debt since 2008 to now total 18 trillion. The only reason the stock market has broken through previous levels is not only because rates have been at zero for six years but because they were pumping in 85 billion each month in stimulus. THIS and ONLY THIS is what has got the stock market to where it is, not real economic growth , just more debt. When rates at zero were doing nothing whatsoever, they resorted to the desperate stimulus( more fucking debt)measures as well.

I mean 85 billion a month, 85,000,000,000. Look at it, after six years along with zero rates, they have finally overpumped the stock market and are forced to pull back on stimulus now as not to over pump it anymore, but the real economy is still headed backwards. Only idiots cannot see this.

Iron ore prices are crashing skamy, from here they can only go lower and lower.Jobs are crashing.

The building boom is just a result of the delusion and debt boom , its not real economic growth, just a last desperate measure, the same thing that went on overseas before property collapsed. The debt ponzi pumped prices and the building frenzy started, not long after that it was all over.

Its like the last hoorah skamy. You can sit back and watch rents decline in ALL capital cities.
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Jimbo
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skamy
19 Sep 2014, 12:57 AM
The so called mining investment boom prevented a larger downturn, but the last few years have seen a lot of construction and building and retail companies go to the wall.

That's it.

You have just put the final nail in your own credibility coffin.

"so called mining investment boom"

You are insane.

Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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