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Employment explodes - biggest monthly gain on record!; ABS 6202.0 - Labour Force, Australia, August 2014
Topic Started: 11 Sep 2014, 01:16 PM (10,413 Views)
Lef-tee
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Firstly, I expect that the real result is likely positive.

Link here

However, it would be stretching credibility far beyond anything sensible to take this figure on face value - there are clearly some statistical issues at play here.

It would be almost impossible for these figures to be accurate without being accompanied by a scorching economic boom of epic proportions and very likely, intense inflationary pressures. Yet we know that neither are occurring.

Australian labour market expert Bill Mitchell will give one of the best analytical overveiws of the situation this evening. It was interesting that growth in hours worked was modest, despite the massive explosion in new jobs - about 1 hour for every new job.
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Dr Watson
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Lef-tee
11 Sep 2014, 01:16 PM
However, it would be stretching credibility far beyond anything sensible to take this figure on face value - there are clearly some statistical issues at play here.
Sample rotation by the ABS, perhaps?
The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt — Bertrand Russell
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Lef-tee
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1 month ago........

Quote:
 
Today’s release of the – Labour Force data – for July 2014 by the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows a deteriorating situation. The Australian labour market is weakening. While the participation rate rose by 0.1 points, which pushed extra workers into the labour force,the negative employment growth was well below the underlying population growth and so unemployment would have risen without the participation rate rise. In fact, unemployment rose sharply in July to 6.4 per cent. This is a terrible outcome. There are now 789 thousand officially counted as unemployed. Overall, the labour market is scudding along a very flat path and unemployment continues to eke its way up. The teenage labour market also weakened and in my view represents a national emergency. Overall, the policy failure at the federal level is now stark.


Link here

I really don't think there's any need to labour the point regarding the suspicious nature of today's incredible result - but I think the ABS does need to investigate ways to smooth out such volitile data events for the sake of accurate record-keeping.

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ThePauk
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Mmmm.....

Employment increased 121,000 to 11,703,500. Full-time employment increased 14,300 to 8,094,300 and part-time employment increased 106,700 to 3,609,200.

So remind me again how many part time workers get mortgages?
Edited by ThePauk, 11 Sep 2014, 01:33 PM.
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Lef-tee
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Dr Watson
11 Sep 2014, 01:28 PM
Lef-tee
11 Sep 2014, 01:16 PM
However, it would be stretching credibility far beyond anything sensible to take this figure on face value - there are clearly some statistical issues at play here.
Sample rotation by the ABS, perhaps?
Yes, the ABS are attributing around 47 000 of the new jobs to sample rotation. However, even accounting for that it would still be an extremely strong result, very much at odds with what we see happening on the ground.
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Admin
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ABS Data: http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0

Employed Persons
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Unemployment Rate
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Quote:
 
AUGUST KEY POINTS

TREND ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE)

Employment increased to 11,638,400.
Unemployment increased to 764,100.
Unemployment rate increased 0.1 pts to 6.2%.
Participation rate increased 0.1 pts to 65.0%.
Aggregate monthly hours worked increased 3.2 million hours (0.2%) to 1,613.6 million hours.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE)

Employment increased 121,000 to 11,703,500. Full-time employment increased 14,300 to 8,094,300 and part-time employment increased 106,700 to 3,609,200.
Unemployment decreased 33,500 to 755,100. The number of unemployed persons looking for full-time work decreased 24,600 to 541,000 and the number of unemployed persons only looking for part-time work decreased 8,900 to 214,100.
Unemployment rate decreased 0.3 pts to 6.1%.
Participation rate increased 0.4 pts to 65.2%.
Aggregate monthly hours worked increased 0.1 million hours to 1 ,609.5 million hours.

LABOUR UNDERUTILISATION (QUARTERLY CHANGE)

Trend estimates: The labour force underutilisation rate increased to 14.3%.
Seasonally adjusted estimates: The labour force undertuilisation rate increased 1.0 pts to 14.6%. The male labour force underutilisation rate increased 1.0 pts to 12.7%. The female labour force underutilisation rate increased 1.0 pts to 16.9%.
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Lef-tee
11 Sep 2014, 01:28 PM
I think the ABS does need to investigate ways to smooth out such volitile data events for the sake of accurate record-keeping.
Isn't that what the trend series does. I don't know why people focus so much on the volatile monthly data. Look at the trend (which is still up).
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Admin
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Quote:
 
Unemployment drops to 6.1 per cent

September 11, 2014 - 12:27PM
Mark Mulligan and Misa Han

Australia's unemployment rate dropped to 6.1 per cent in August, after the labour market added a massive 121,000 jobs.

The figures, which were much better than expected, follow a surprise spike in July to 6.4 per cent from 6 per cent in June. The participation rates also improved in August, from 64.8 to 65.2 per cent.

Currency markets immediately welcomed the August data, bidding the Australian dollar up to around US92 cents from early-morning levels around US91.60. The local unit has been outside the US92-to-US95 cent range for the first time since late March.

In publishing the figures, the ABS said: "The ABS reported the number of people employed increased by 121,000 to 11,703,500 in August 2014, seasonally adjusted. The increase in employment was driven by increased part-time employment for both males - up 65,400 persons - and females, up 41,300 persons."

Most economists had ascribed the July surge to changes in ABS survey methodology, arguing that most other labour market indicators - including jobs advertising - suggested a slightly more upbeat outlook.

The ANZ's newspaper and online jobs ads series this week showed a 1.5 per cent month-on-month rise in August, taking year-on-year growth to 8 per cent.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/unemployment-drops-to-61-per-cent-20140911-10fal5.html
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Lef-tee
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11 Sep 2014, 01:35 PM
Lef-tee
11 Sep 2014, 01:28 PM
I think the ABS does need to investigate ways to smooth out such volitile data events for the sake of accurate record-keeping.
Isn't that what the trend series does. I don't know why people focus so much on the volatile monthly data. Look at the trend (which is still up).
Yes, it is best to focus on the trend for accuracy. But the short-term seasonally adjusted numbers can give hints of turning points not apparent in the trend for some time and so are useful.

But in this particular case something is very clearly out of whack.
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newjez
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Lef-tee
11 Sep 2014, 01:28 PM
1 month ago........




Link here

I really don't think there's any need to labour the point regarding the suspicious nature of today's incredible result - but I think the ABS does need to investigate ways to smooth out such volitile data events for the sake of accurate record-keeping.
It does look like they don't know what caused it.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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