US will raise rates much sooner then you expect. Rates will start to rise next year and keep rising for some time.
Why?
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
Already got some. Mainly as a bet against the AUD.
Yeah. That's the problem with treasuries - it's a somewhat hedged position. If people decide the US won't raise rates, the aussie will spike higher again. When the US does raise rates, the Aussie will tank somewhat.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off. --Gloria Steinem AREPS™
Yeah. That's the problem with treasuries - it's a somewhat hedged position. If people decide the US won't raise rates, the aussie will spike higher again. When the US does raise rates, the Aussie will tank somewhat.
I'm betting more that the AUD will fall on its own.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
I've been waiting for that for 3 years. Good luck.
The dynamics have changed a bit and the AUD doesn't seem to track resources like it used to. Maybe that will change a bit if we have a few below par GDP prints or a tick up in unemployment.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
The US won't want to bugger a recovery. They'll leave rates right where they are until the recovery is well underway and widespread.
There is no recovery stinky, just another shitload of debt for which they can NEVER repay.
Going from 8 trillion in debt to 18 trillion now. No recovery, just more debt to make dopes think there is a recovery. Hence our falling dollar and gold price.
The story about raising interest rates is just a complete load of shit. They will not raise rates unless they are forced to for whatever reason.
The ONLY reason they have been able to fiegn recover is by jamming rates at zero and pumping another 10 trillion more in debt since 2008. 80 billion a month for some time at one stage. As a result the share market has been pumped to record highs, while the REAL economy is being permantly flushed. So from their massive over stimulus over six years and record low rates, they have finally overinflated the stockmarket. They are now being forced to pull back on stimulus to aviod overpumping the stockmarket even higher. There is no REAL recovery, just another whole load of bullshit to make it appear that way to the uneducated, the majority.
Once the stimulus pullback starts running out of puff, they will start stimulating again. No interest rate rises,the stimulus pullback alone is enough to send the market backwards , let alone interest rate rises thrown in too. There fkdd, just like the euro, just like us, overinflated wages and prices for decades using every measure possible, now killed off by cheap foreign labour and rapid advancements in technogy and computerised automation. Clowns want to tell me the other week the euro is getting better, yet only four days ago they dropped their rates from 0.15%, to 0.05%. Wtf will that do, screams desperation, how far do they have to move on now. The exact position we will be in before much longer, rates closer to zero and no room to move from there, with the economy still headed backwards years later. There is no Interest rate rises coming if any government leaders can avoid it, it would finish them off, the very reason they were forced here, now an extra 10 trillion more debt to pay interest on and you think they will raise rates.
As currency traders, economists and analysts dissect the worst week for the Australian dollar since June 2013, there is one key question to be answered: Does the local dollar's dramatic drop signal the inflection point the market has been waiting for all year?
The currency has been so resilient for so long that most strategists admit they did not even see the brutal snapping of a well-defined five-month trading range coming as it did just before midnight on Tuesday.
Unusually for such a big currency swing there was no singular trigger, however an inauspicious paper from the San Francisco branch of the Federal Reserve (and Fed chair Janet Yellen 's alma mater) had an over-sized role to play in sending the United States dollar rallying at the top of the week.
That was enough to pose fresh questions around the timing of a rate rise in the United States and second-guess the doveish rhetoric the Fed has been pushing, setting off a chain of events punctuated by a US90¢-handle on Friday.
A week ago, the Australian dollar was worth US94¢.
What's different this time around is that deep-set challenges for the currency – such as the falling iron ore price, weak consumer sentiment and sub-par economic growth – can no longer be discounted as immaterial.
Westpac foreign exchange strategist Sean Callow recalled reading a report from his London colleagues before he went to bed on Tuesday which noted the Australian dollar had gone through US92¢ and attracting a range of sellers on no apparent news.
The next morning. listening to an ABC news bulletin, he was shocked to hear the Australian dollar had a new handle: US91¢.
"You think a range break will come from something like an RBA meeting or a crazy jobs number but that's not the case," he said.
"In some cases it's a sign of something cracking, some plates shifting in the background that you won't know about much later if ever. If you were staring at the screens watching dollar-yen in October 1998 you had no idea that Long Term Capital Management (the ultra-leveraged hedge fund which went bust that year) was being absolutely crushed on a dollar-yen trade."
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