Is that the beginning of your capitulation as a bull?? An acknowledgement that Melb and Sydney would be overheated if this whole thing went one step further and the need to sell because of the unacceptable risk..............
I'm sure you'll spin it by saying 'no just to get the most out if the CG' or some shit like that but it appears more like a glimpse of the stains appearing on your boxers, just enough for you to lean down and sniff the stench that is the shit you created.
This games really starting to get interesting
Mike's been saying the same thing for a long time, and I think he is right.
The overall economy needs the interest rate spread between oz and the rest of the world to drop, but the housing market needs lower interest rates like it needs a hole in the head.
While I generally have little time for Ross Garnaut because he's basically a paid-up member of the left-wing pressure groups, I agree with him that the RBA needs help from the govt/APRA to be able to set monetary policy more in tune with the needs of the non-housing sector. For reasons I have done to death elsewhere, I think he would be very disappointed with the impact of fiddling with NG, especially in comparison to the political fallout it would engender. He is probably looking more in the right direction with the macroprudential stuff, especially to do with the capital adequacy preference for mortgages. The only problem with going there is that it stems from the Basel accords, and in fact it correctly captures the difference in risk between business lending and mortgage lending. Despite what people say, it is not a problem that is easily fixed.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off. --Gloria Steinem AREPS™
After a bubble has burst, no one denies that it existed. But before it does, the popular refrain is that though bubbles existed elsewhere in the world, “there’s no bubble here”. So housing bubbles are admitted to have existed in Japan, the USA, Spain and Ireland – because they’ve already burst.
Is that the beginning of your capitulation as a bull?? An acknowledgement that Melb and Sydney would be overheated if this whole thing went one step further and the need to sell because of the unacceptable risk..............
I'm sure you'll spin it by saying 'no just to get the most out if the CG' or some shit like that but it appears more like a glimpse of the stains appearing on your boxers, just enough for you to lean down and sniff the stench that is the shit you created.
This games really starting to get interesting
Not any real change from me.
I have voiced some concerns about Sydney for some time. However I lack the local knowledge to see what is really going on so I leave it to the East Coast people on this forum. But I can still have an opinion.
My opinion is Australian Property market does not need more rate cuts. As the RBA has pointed out and I did long ago, it will only fuel the market beyond sustainable growth when income growth into the future is looking questionable at this stage.
I am always in favour of a healthy long term market not huge gains at the expense of a majority including the economy. Rates are low enough and I think we will see sustained improvement in property at present rates nation wide. Further rate cuts would be a foolish move in my mind.
The Government needs to take more of the burden of providing growth to the economy. I think Abbott and Co will unleash a wave of infrastructure spending but the effects wont be felt for some time. The delays in passing some of the budget measures also forced a delay. Now with the Carbon and Mining taxes gone it should allow time for the Government to focus on other issues.
As Ross Garnaut pointed out the Aussie Dollar is far to high, it needs to fall to 85c or less to help provide business with a boost.
As long as our rates are at 2.5% while the US, Japan, Euro are at 0% or close to it our dollar will remain high. It is a period we are going to have to go through until the US starts to raise interest rates. Once we see the first rate hike or two watch the little aussie battler begin to drop along with the price of gold.
miw
7 Sep 2014, 07:54 PM
Mike's been saying the same thing for a long time, and I think he is right.
The overall economy needs the interest rate spread between oz and the rest of the world to drop, but the housing market needs lower interest rates like it needs a hole in the head.
While I generally have little time for Ross Garnaut because he's basically a paid-up member of the left-wing pressure groups, I agree with him that the RBA needs help from the govt/APRA to be able to set monetary policy more in tune with the needs of the non-housing sector. For reasons I have done to death elsewhere, I think he would be very disappointed with the impact of fiddling with NG, especially in comparison to the political fallout it would engender. He is probably looking more in the right direction with the macroprudential stuff, especially to do with the capital adequacy preference for mortgages. The only problem with going there is that it stems from the Basel accords, and in fact it correctly captures the difference in risk between business lending and mortgage lending. Despite what people say, it is not a problem that is easily fixed.
It is a period we are going to have to go through until the US starts to raise interest rates.
The US can't even begin to think about raising rates whilst it is still increasing its QE.
The common myth is that the US is reducing QE via the taper, but all it is doing is reducing the amount of new QE that it does every month.
So in plain English, the Fed is increasing QE at the rate of $35 billion a month. All the while its balance sheet is growing to insane levels.
Janet is already jawboning about shifting the focus of QE and interest rates from unemployment levels to wage growth and US real wages are going backwards so she is preparing the ground for more easing, not less.
The other big question, is can the USA afford to strengthen its currency after spending so many years trying to weaken it and create inflation?
I'd say wake me up when they raise rates but I don't want to sleep for that long.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
The US can't even begin to think about raising rates whilst it is still increasing its QE.
The common myth is that the US is reducing QE via the taper, but all it is doing is reducing the amount of new QE that it does every month.
So in plain English, the Fed is increasing QE at the rate of $35 billion a month. All the while its balance sheet is growing to insane levels.
Janet is already jawboning about shifting the focus of QE and interest rates from unemployment levels to wage growth and US real wages are going backwards so she is preparing the ground for more easing, not less.
The other big question, is can the USA afford to strengthen it's currency after spending so many years trying to weaken it and create inflation?
I'd say wake me up when they raise rates but I don't want to sleep for that long.
The fed will stop qe in Oct. But the question is will they unwind it? I doubt it. The UK hasn't.
miw
7 Sep 2014, 07:54 PM
Mike's been saying the same thing for a long time, and I think he is right.
The overall economy needs the interest rate spread between oz and the rest of the world to drop, but the housing market needs lower interest rates like it needs a hole in the head.
While I generally have little time for Ross Garnaut because he's basically a paid-up member of the left-wing pressure groups, I agree with him that the RBA needs help from the govt/APRA to be able to set monetary policy more in tune with the needs of the non-housing sector. For reasons I have done to death elsewhere, I think he would be very disappointed with the impact of fiddling with NG, especially in comparison to the political fallout it would engender. He is probably looking more in the right direction with the macroprudential stuff, especially to do with the capital adequacy preference for mortgages. The only problem with going there is that it stems from the Basel accords, and in fact it correctly captures the difference in risk between business lending and mortgage lending. Despite what people say, it is not a problem that is easily fixed.
I think we are all broadly in agreement with the big picture. But the devil is in the detail.
There may be excessive price inflation in housing, and if that is the case it is very important that we deal with that problem with specific measures rather than running our whole monetary policy to suit the housing sector."
His comments come as ratings agency Standard & Poor's cautioned against further stimulating Australia's mortgage market, saying it would increase the risk of a housing bust and make the country more vulnerable economically.
Similar concerns about fuelling the mortgage market have also been raised by the Reserve Bank. Governor Glenn Stevens this week warned higher house prices were beginning to crimp monetary policy.
I have been banging on about this for a number of years - we have mis-used monetary policy as a prop for perpetual house price inflation and as a result we are now close to the point where we cannot effectively use it as an economic counter-stablizer in the event of a serious economic shock. Fiscal policy will need to do all the heavy lifting when that happens - except that our political class is obsessed by austerity.
I'd say wake me up when they raise rates but I don't want to sleep for that long.
You wont need to sleep for long.
4.2% Growth indicates the economy is expanding at a fast level, with economic data released this week showing that the 3rd quarter will grow at similar levels.
While the print of employment numbers was below expect, it is after the strongest 6 months of employment growth in nearly 20 years. I also think you will find this number revised up in comming weeks as more data comes in. It is only a print of the employment numbers, far from the final figures which I think you will find will be higher.
QE will cease around october or soon after. Interest rates will rise, which would be helpful for our dollar to lower it in value.
4.2% Growth indicates the economy is expanding at a fast level, with economic data released this week showing that the 3rd quarter will grow at similar levels.
While the print of employment numbers was below expect, it is after the strongest 6 months of employment growth in nearly 20 years. I also think you will find this number revised up in comming weeks as more data comes in. It is only a print of the employment numbers, far from the final figures which I think you will find will be higher.
QE will cease around october or soon after. Interest rates will rise, which would be helpful for our dollar to lower it in value.
Q: Why do central banks raise interest rates?
A: To control inflation.
Q: How does a central bank reduce the real value of its balance sheet and its governments sovereign debt?
A: Through Inflation
Checkmate.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
Q: How does a central bank reduce the real value of its balance sheet and its governments sovereign debt?
A: Through Inflation
Checkmate.
Centrals banks raise interest rates to control future inflation.
An economy growing at 4.2% if sustained will cause inflation. The US fed knows this and hence why it will start to raise interest rates.
Are you trying to tell us the US will not raise interest rates ever? Or at some distant point long into the future. What are you trying to tell us all as you dont appear to have many supporters.
They tried to burn negative gearing back in the late 1980s when we were heading into recession.
The real estate industry blamed the closing of the NG program for the recession and for the drop in property prices – never mind the Japanese property bubble, the 17% interest rates and the recession we had to have.
Not that it matters because it will never happen. Joe Hockey comes from a real estate family and owns 7 investment properties. Abbott doesn't have the balls or brains to do it and Pyne and the rest of his whiney mates will take the most populist view with the aim of winning votes.
I wish what I just said wasn't true but I really think it is.
Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.
Forum Rules:
The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.
Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.
Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.
This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.
Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ
Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy