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Will the Sydney median house price reach $1 million by the end of 2015?
Topic Started: 4 Sep 2014, 03:48 PM (22,847 Views)
newjez
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Shadow
6 Sep 2014, 03:15 PM
LOL, so much anger. Yes, I said 'by', not 'before'. Like if Amazon promises to deliver your goods by Friday, it means they've got until the end of Friday to deliver.

I suppose you'd be on the phone to them on Thursday afternoon ranting like a lunatic and abusing them for not delivering on time. :re:

Same goes for 'by' 2015... I've got until the end of the year.

Try not to forget that 2015 lasts for an entire year. This is the part your getting confused over. Believe it or not, it's actually still 2015 on 31st December 2015, right up to an instant before midnight. If you don't believe me, check your calendar. And then feel free to apologise.

So we'll find out whether or not I was right by February 2016 when the Residex results for December 2015 are released.

It will be a joyous occasion for bulls across the land.
You could even slip in 2015 financial year. Give yourself another six months. I think you'll need it.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Ex BP Golly
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newjez
6 Sep 2014, 03:23 PM
You could even slip in 2015 financial year. Give yourself another six months. I think you'll need it.
Shit, don't give him ideas.

Next thing you know he will find the fact the Julian calender is out by a few years or something obscure and tell us his prediction actually runs through to 2019.
WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
Share a cot with Milton?
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Ex BP Golly
6 Sep 2014, 03:45 PM
Shit, don't give him ideas.

Next thing you know he will find the fact the Julian calender is out by a few years or something obscure and tell us his prediction actually runs through to 2019.
The prediction hasn't changed since 2008 and it won't be changing.

Sydney median house price to approach $1M by 2015.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Shadow
6 Sep 2014, 03:51 PM
The prediction hasn't changed since 2008 and it won't be changing.

Sydney median house price to approach $1M by 2015.
Your original prediction in 2007 was that the Sydney median would be $1,250,000 by 2014.

Why did you change it after the GFC hit ?
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Sarah
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Shadow
6 Sep 2014, 01:25 PM
There was a preliminary prediction of $1.25M that I made earlier in 2008, but that was based purely on extrapolating a line on a chart, and I only briefly mentioned it once, and then quickly refined it (based on a more detailed analysis of the data) to arrive at the current prediction, which has remained unchanged since 2008.
Could easily be 1.25 mil in 2018 is my guess if things keep ticking along!
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Shadow
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6 Sep 2014, 04:44 PM
Your original prediction in 2007 was that the Sydney median would be $1,250,000 by 2014.

Why did you change it after the GFC hit ?
The preliminary prediction was based purely on extrapolating a line on a chart. I just got Excel to plot an extrapolated trendline and that's what it came up with (and I said as much at the time). I probably shouldn't have called it a 'prediction' since it was really just an Excel trendline extrapolation. Once I analysed the data properly I arrived at the actual prediction, which has remained unchanged since 2008.

I remember at the time the bears were predicting 40% crashes, yet here we are six years later and prices are already up by more than 50% and well on their way to approaching $1M by 2015. Still no sign of the mythical crash. Were you one of the people who thought prices would fall rather than rising? I'm guessing you called the direction wrong, never mind the magnitude? :lol
Edited by Shadow, 6 Sep 2014, 06:36 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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A Lurker
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Shadow
6 Sep 2014, 06:22 PM
The preliminary prediction was based purely on extrapolating a line on a chart. I just got Excel to plot an extrapolated trendline and that's what it came up with (and I said as much at the time). I probably shouldn't have called it a 'prediction' since it was really just an Excel trendline extrapolation. Once I analysed the data properly I arrived at the actual prediction, which has remained unchanged since 2008.

I remember at the time the bears were predicting 40% crashes, yet here we are six years later and prices are already up by more than 50% and well on their way to approaching $1M by 2015. Still no sign of the mythical crash. Were you one of the people who thought prices would fall rather than rising? I'm guessing you called the direction wrong, never mind the magnitude? :lol
My view is that by means before but it is up for debate.

As the person that made the ambiguous statement has clarified it to be by the end of 2015 that should be the end of it. I also note that this clarification is not new and has been a consistent position for some years.
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Elastic
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I'm surprised he has only a 80-90% success rate with such vague and poorly defined predictions.
Only a rat can win a rat race.

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GloomBoomDoom
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Shadow
6 Sep 2014, 01:25 PM
Incorrect. 2015 isn't a single point in time. It actually lasts for an entire year (365 days). Check your calendar if you don't believe me. If I tell my boss I'll have the report by Friday, then I can have it on Friday - it doesn't need to be on Thursday. At school when you were told your homework had to be handed in by Friday, did you assume that meant you needed to hand it in on Thursday? Of course not - it can be handed in on Friday. If the post office says you can expect the parcel by Wednesday, do you think that means they are committing to deliver on Tuesday?
I don't know where you work but if I'm told something is needed "by" Friday then that means if it's not completed or available before 9am Friday then it wasn't done on time. If it's to be done by COB Friday then that is usually specified.
I agree the term can be stretched somewhat but when you're talking about years vs days I don't think it's applicable.
If I say I'm going to do something by 2015 it means on the 1st on Jan 2015 it's either done or I've failed. Most people would agree on that.
MSE
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Elastic
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Shadow isn't most people. Hence, he will disagree.
Only a rat can win a rat race.

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