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Will the Sydney median house price reach $1 million by the end of 2015?
Topic Started: 4 Sep 2014, 03:48 PM (22,850 Views)
Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Guest
5 Sep 2014, 12:30 AM
Unchanged since when.
Unchanged ever.

Quote:
 
The last time you changed it.

In 2007 you said the Sydney median would be $1,250,000 by 2014.
That was just the preliminary prediction. I refined it shortly afterwards to approaching $1 million by 2015, and that one hasn't changed.

I only have an 80-90% success rate with my predictions, I don't get them all right. But I have found that an 80-90% success rate is still sufficient to profit from them.


miw
4 Sep 2014, 11:58 PM
A definition of "approach" would be in order here.
I like 'approach' because it irritates the bears, especially Earthsta, but since he appears to have vanished without a trace, let's say high 900s.

I already did clarify that this is what it means in a discussion with Zaph somewhere on the forum about a year ago.
Edited by Shadow, 5 Sep 2014, 09:19 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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CSI
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And looking beyond that, $2M median prices by 2023 or so? Or is that too far ahead to make any meaningful prediction.
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A Lurker
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I voted no. I don't think the Sydney median will 'reach' $1m by the end of 2015 but will approach it.

I'd say anything north of $950k and Shadow was definitely on the money. $930k to $949k a bit iffy. Sub $929k wrong.
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Bardon
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CSI
5 Sep 2014, 09:18 AM
And looking beyond that, $2M median prices by 2023 or so? Or is that too far ahead to make any meaningful prediction.
I would says that that is very much a possibility. You wouldn't want to be buying around then though, either holding or selling but not buying.
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jesusjones
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A while back when I first joined here I remember
Reading a similar post by shadow, I remember saying
'Nah he's loco' now I'm thinking 'f*ck my dog, i think it's
Going to happen, he's right'.. There's just too much Chinese money
In Sydney..
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Bardon
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jesusjones
5 Sep 2014, 06:26 PM
A while back when I first joined here I remember
Reading a similar post by shadow, I remember saying
'Nah he's loco' now I'm thinking 'f*ck my dog, i think it's
Going to happen, he's right'.. There's just too much Chinese money
In Sydney..
I think you have just had your Jesus moment!
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goldbug
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Posted Image
Barely a 50% increase in the 10 years between 2002 and 2012. Not exactly going according to the plan of doubling in price every 10 years is it?

As for the next 10? Nowhere but down the way the economy is heading.
Edited by goldbug, 5 Sep 2014, 06:46 PM.
Shadow was hopelessly wrong about the Gold Bull Market.
What else is he wrong about?
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doubleview
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jesusjones
5 Sep 2014, 06:26 PM
A while back when I first joined here I remember
Reading a similar post by shadow, I remember saying
'Nah he's loco' now I'm thinking 'f*ck my dog, i think it's
Going to happen, he's right'.. There's just too much Chinese money
In Sydney..
Shadow's clairvoyance master class is banking on boomer RBA Stevens housing @ all costs.... eggs in one basket attitude!

Furthermore it relies on the boomer politicians attitude and policies of eating their own children!

This is very very very sick, I also came to the same conclusion re: shadow's prediction a while back !

http://australianpropertyforum.com/topic/9868671/2/#post8392808



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Shadow
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goldbug
5 Sep 2014, 06:45 PM
Barely a 50% increase in the 10 years between 2002 and 2012
2012 was two years ago. It's 2014 now, and Sydney prices are up 50% over the past five years (2009-2014), which is the same as doubling in ten years.

Quote:
 
Not exactly going according to the plan of doubling in price every 10 years is it?
It's certainly on track to double in ten years based on the 50% growth over the past five years. However I'm expecting it to top out (for this cycle) in 2016.

How has gold fared since 2009? Oh yes... it's gone backwards... the gold price today is lower than it was in early 2009...

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Attached to this post:
Attachments: goldbug_fail.jpg (34.87 KB)
Edited by Shadow, 5 Sep 2014, 07:02 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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GloomBoomDoom
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Shadow
5 Sep 2014, 08:47 AM
Unchanged ever.
Except for when you were posting as Michael of Sydney on news.com.au articles claiming it would be a million by 2011. :D
MSE
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