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Will the Sydney median house price reach $1 million by the end of 2015?
Topic Started: 4 Sep 2014, 03:48 PM (22,830 Views)
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Sydney investors chasing capital growth in for a rude shock, say experts
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The Whole Truth
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Shadow
1 Oct 2015, 01:35 PM
Sydney now $1.04M in August... could it get to $1.1M by the end blah blah
It hasn't even made one million yet shadow so hold your horses and your bullshit stats.
Sydney investors chasing capital growth in for a rude shock, say experts
Oct 2nd 2015

The property market in Sydney’s west has slumped dramatically, signalling looming problems for investors who were hoping to capitalise on price growth. Instead, prices in the west have slipped by 7.3 per cent over the month of September and the auction clearance rate has hit a dismal 56.4 per cent – a massive drop from Sydney’s record rate of nearly 90 per cent in May. .“There’s no doubt that prices and auction clearance rates have weakened considerably in the west,” said Domain Group senior economist Dr Andrew Wilson. “It has now become the underperformer of the Sydney market and, to some degree, it’s dragging the whole of the market down.
http://www.domain.com.au/news/sydney-investors-chasing-capital-growth-in-for-a-rude-shock-say-experts-20151002-gjyz2g/
Edited by The Whole Truth, 2 Oct 2015, 05:31 PM.
"Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works." John Stuart Mill
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Shadow
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The Whole Truth
2 Oct 2015, 05:25 PM
It hasn't even made one million yet
It has exceeded $1M, according to Residex, APM, and SQM Research.

ABS and RP Data are still below $1M.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Veritas
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Shadow
2 Oct 2015, 06:07 PM
It has exceeded $1M, according to Residex, APM, and SQM Research.

ABS and RP Data are still below $1M.
Yep, its looking a lot like Dublin 2007.

Are you happy about that?

Meanwhile,

Quote:
 
In 2014-15, direct construction industry output contributed 7.8% to Australia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
up from around 6.5% a decade ago (see chart 1). This makes the construction industry Australia’s third
largest contributor to GDP in terms of the volume of its output. Only the financial and insurance services
(8.7%) and mining (8.8%) sectors contribute larger shares of direct output to GDP.


So that means the two biggest contributors to national wealth relate, in the main, to house building seeing as out banks are glorified mortgage lenders.

Posted Image

But its gets better.

Quote:
 
In addition to this direct contribution to GDP, construction activity supports a large upstream and downstream
supply chain. For example, the production of building materials (e.g. tiles, wood, steel, cement, bricks and
glass), building components (doors, windows, wiring, electronics, plumbing supplies) and accessories.(bathroom and kitchenware, carpets and curtains) are supplied from manufacturing, while the sale andmanagement of property is the preserve of real estate services and the financing of property mortgages is
part of the financial services sector. Similarly, engineering and architectural design services are classified as
‘professional services’ in the 'ANZSIC' system of classification, while the transport and wholesaling of all
building materials are included in the 'transport' and 'wholesale trade' sectors respectively. These upstream
and downstream industries are large and significant in their own right. Collectively, they extend the reach of
construction-related activity to around 20% of the economy, in output ('value added') terms
.


http://www.aigroup.com.au/portal/binary/com.epicentric.contentmanagement.servlet.ContentDeliveryServlet/LIVE_CONTENT/Economic%2520Indicators/Construction%2520Survey/2015/Construction%2520industry%2520profile%2520and%2520Outlook.pdf
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Shadow
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Veritas
2 Oct 2015, 06:21 PM
Yep, its looking a lot like Dublin 2007.
In 2007, Dublin prices had increased by 400% in a decade (a 5X increase).

Sydney is up by only 100% over the past decade (a 2X increase).

So in 2007, Dublin prices had been increasing at more than double the rate of Sydney's recent growth.

I don't think it looks like Dublin yet.
Edited by Shadow, 2 Oct 2015, 06:37 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Veritas
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On a house price to income metric we are close enough for sure.

At the peak it was about 9 times average income in Ireland. So say 11 or 12 in Dublin.

Must be at least ten in Sydney now. Probably more.

Posted Image
Edited by Veritas, 2 Oct 2015, 07:11 PM.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Terry
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Veritas
2 Oct 2015, 07:08 PM
On a house price to income metric we are close enough for sure.

At the peak it was about 9 times average income in Ireland. So say 11 or 12 in Dublin.

Must be at least ten in Sydney now. Probably more.

Posted Image
Yes the suburbanites need to remember that the great words of theoretical physicist Richard P. Feynman:

“The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool.”
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Veritas
2 Oct 2015, 07:08 PM
On a house price to income metric we are close enough for sure.

Posted Image
Your chart shows Ireland's price/income ratio tripling over a decade.

Sydney's price/income ratio is a little bit higher than it was a decade ago, but not much.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Trollie
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Veritas
2 Oct 2015, 07:08 PM
Must be at least ten in Sydney now. Probably more.
"must be" "probably"

You love your well researched facts don't you.
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Veritas
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Shadow
2 Oct 2015, 07:19 PM
Your chart shows Ireland's price/income ratio tripling over a decade.

Sydney's price/income ratio is a little bit higher than it was a decade ago, but not much.
So what?

The point is relative to incomes the price to income ratio in Sydney now approximates what it did in Dublin at the peak of it's bubble.

You are suggesting that the fact that it took Sydney 15 or 20 years to get there rather than 10 makes a difference.

Why would it?
Trollie
2 Oct 2015, 07:42 PM
"must be" "probably"<br /><br />You love your well researched facts don't you.
Stick to sucking Shadow's cock.

Its your strong suit.
Edited by Veritas, 2 Oct 2015, 07:47 PM.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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