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Will the Sydney median house price reach $1 million by the end of 2015?
Topic Started: 4 Sep 2014, 03:48 PM (22,851 Views)
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Top reasons why Sydney property prices cannot go down in foreseeable future

1 - current low interest rates and predicted interest rate cuts
2 - expected huge influx of migrants due to changes in work visas (govt easing the requirements too!)
3 - massive shortage of land (they're not making any more of it!)
4 - drip feeding of apartments by planning authorities (no oversupply)
5 - diligent banks (no subprime..... yet)
6 - massive debt left behind by ALP (govt wants the stamp duty revenue)
7 - no incentives whatsoever to First home owners and investors (nothing to cancel, and they could be reintroduced)

People are pushed to wall and they are desperate and ill go to any extremes just to put a roof on family.

I cannot see any end to price increases but kind of happy because my property portfolio value is increasing.

Sucks to be a renter I suppose. Oh well.
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ThePauk
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4 Sep 2014, 05:22 PM
Top reasons why Sydney property prices cannot go down in foreseeable future

1 - current low interest rates and predicted interest rate cuts
2 - expected huge influx of migrants due to changes in work visas (govt easing the requirements too!)
3 - massive shortage of land (they're not making any more of it!)
4 - drip feeding of apartments by planning authorities (no oversupply)
5 - diligent banks (no subprime..... yet)
6 - massive debt left behind by ALP (govt wants the stamp duty revenue)
7 - no incentives whatsoever to First home owners and investors (nothing to cancel, and they could be reintroduced)

People are pushed to wall and they are desperate and ill go to any extremes just to put a roof on family.

I cannot see any end to price increases but kind of happy because my property portfolio value is increasing.

Sucks to be a renter I suppose. Oh well.
Dear God, another speculator who is only interested in his/her own backyard.

Why would any rational person think that house price inflation is a good thing for an advanced society and its following generations?

1. The next rate rise will be up as unemployment falls due to a falling participation rate and a misinterpretation of the data.
2. I suppose the 18% fall in permanent immigrants is nothing to worry about.
"There were 9,620 people who stated they were permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during July 2014, a decrease of 18.3% compared with July 2013 (11,770 movements)." http://abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/3401.0Main%20Features3Jul%202014?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=3401.0&issue=Jul%202014&num=&view=
Plenty of burbs in Brisbane with declining postulation and increasing house prices. Population growth is not as linked to house prices as you imagine them to be.
3. Yep, we have no land left....lol
4. There is a glut of apartments coming onto the market over the next 12 months.
5. Yep, no one is lending at 95% these days....lol and interest only loans are just about extinct...not!
6. So the bigger the govt debt, the more house prices rise? I need some of your drugs....
7. No incentives? What do you call negative gearing or CGT discounts? And so you state because there are no incentives for FHB, prices will go up. Stuff me.... here I was thinking that the FHOB actually pushed prices up.

So you are saying that 30% of all Australians are suckers?

Nope, back to you high chair.
Edited by ThePauk, 4 Sep 2014, 05:38 PM.
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Janice
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4 Sep 2014, 05:22 PM
1 - current low interest rates and predicted interest rate cuts
2 - expected huge influx of migrants due to changes in work visas (govt easing the requirements too!)
3 - massive shortage of land (they're not making any more of it!)
4 - drip feeding of apartments by planning authorities (no oversupply)
5 - diligent banks (no subprime..... yet)
6 - massive debt left behind by ALP (govt wants the stamp duty revenue)
7 - no incentives whatsoever to First home owners and investors (nothing to cancel, and they could be reintroduced)
Some points I feel compelled to reply to.

Current low interest rates and predicted interest rate cuts - AGREED at least 4-5 years of lowish interest rates.

Drip feeding of apartments by planning authorities - I was in Town Hall the other day and passed a real estate expo, went in, all new apartments being sold off the plan, all stalls written in CHINESE, some exclusively with no English, shows their target market. Sadly I barely got a hello from most stall owners. There are a huge amount of apartments being built or proposed, I saw the evidence (both Sydney and Melbourne).

Diligent banks - wow, you lose all credibility. Some banks are still lending at 95% and even 120%. Also banks are lending $1 million to the average loser to buy in the inner west.

No incentives whatsoever to First home owners and investors? Hello?Negative gearing?!??!

I do agree though that an external factor will need to come in to knock us off the cliff, otherwise it will be a stagnant housing market (Sydney at least) for a few years, much like in Japan.
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Blondie girl
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Still room for the market to grow., but of course it won't be to what the market was pre GFC.

Burran Ave Mosman ..that infinity pool & wine cellar.
Magic.


Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$
It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged
Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do.
Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
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Gossamer
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44th most prolific poster on APF

No.

I will revisit this thread in January 2016.
Common sense is a curse - those who have it need to suffer dealing with those who don't have it.

APF idiot list
Nelson
Black Panther
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Bardon
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4 Sep 2014, 05:22 PM

I cannot see any end to price increases but kind of happy because my property portfolio value is increasing.

You ought to be very happy, its not as if you are playing Monopoly to lose , is it?

The more you trouser, the bigger you winnings in this game.
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Trojan
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I also don't think it will quite reach $1mil by the end of next year so I voted no.
Ironically, if it stops just shy of $1mil, you will be mocked by people who predicted a 40% crash from 2008.
Edited by Trojan, 4 Sep 2014, 11:57 PM.
I put trolls and time wasters on my ignore list so if I don't respond to you, you are probably on it ....
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miw
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Shadow
4 Sep 2014, 05:15 PM
No, I am more confident than ever that Sydney house prices will approach $1m by 2015.
A definition of "approach" would be in order here.

As far as I am concerned the median has already approached $1M for a couple of years after receding from it for a while, before which it was approaching it.......

At some time in the future, no doubt it will approach $1M from the side too.

For the record, I don't think it will quite reach $1M in 2015, but it will "approach" it.
Edited by miw, 4 Sep 2014, 11:59 PM.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
AREPS™
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Shadow
4 Sep 2014, 04:27 PM
My prediction is that the Sydney median house price will approach $1M by 2015 as measured by the Residex index. I haven't specified any particular day or month in 2015.

That prediction is unchanged.
Unchanged since when.

The last time you changed it.

In 2007 you said the Sydney median would be $1,250,000 by 2014.
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hoofarted
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miw
4 Sep 2014, 11:58 PM
A definition of "approach" would be in order here.

As far as I am concerned the median has already approached $1M for a couple of years after receding from it for a while, before which it was approaching it.......

At some time in the future, no doubt it will approach $1M from the side too.

For the record, I don't think it will quite reach $1M in 2015, but it will "approach" it.
Yeah.. That is his "get out of jail free" card.
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