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Will the Sydney median house price reach $1 million by the end of 2015?
Topic Started: 4 Sep 2014, 03:48 PM (22,834 Views)
Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Terry
3 Jun 2015, 10:15 PM
If you don't understand leveraging as an aggregate, then you don't understand fundamental risk and how you are simply a microbe. The risks with leveraging are related to system instability, which you cannot control. It doesn't matter how smart you think you are. Also, one of the risks with leveraging into housing for suburbanites is that you rarely have limited capacity for counter-party risk should the unexpected happen. What you don't understand is that as that leverage increases, so does the risk.....across the whole economy.

Compare that to crossing a road. You can take extreme precautions, such as blocking access to cars. However, ridiculous that seems, it is possible to control. Leveraging is a completely different animal and is also linked to popping of bubbles. No control. When it pops, you have no control over it and the impacts it has on the wider economy.
If you don't understand road safety, then you don't understand fundamental risk and how you are simply a statistic. The risks with crossing the road are related to other drivers, which you cannot control. It doesn't matter how smart you think you are. Also, one of the risks with crossing roads is that you rarely have any capacity to get out of harms way should the unexpected happen. What you don't understand is that as that the frequency of road crossing increases, so does the risk... for your whole family.

Compare that to leverage. You can take extreme precautions, such as reducing LVR to 1%. However, ridiculous that seems, it is possible to control. Crossing roads is a completely different animal and is also linked to zebra crossings. No control. When a speeding truck breaks the lights, you have no control over it, or the impact it has on your body.
Edited by Shadow, 3 Jun 2015, 11:24 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Terry
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Shadow
3 Jun 2015, 11:22 PM
If you don't understand road safety, then you don't understand fundamental risk and how you are simply a statistic. The risks with crossing the road are related to other drivers, which you cannot control. It doesn't matter how smart you think you are. Also, one of the risks with crossing roads is that you rarely have any capacity to get out of harms way should the unexpected happen. What you don't understand is that as that the frequency of road crossing increases, so does the risk... for your whole family.

Compare that to leverage. You can take extreme precautions, such as reducing LVR to 1%. However, ridiculous that seems, it is possible to control. Crossing roads is a completely different animal and is also linked to zebra crossings. No control. When a speeding truck breaks the lights, you have no control over it, or the impact it has on your body.
I remember a philosophy lecture when I was an undergrad when determinism and free will was the topic. We had an adult student who needed to be controversial and kept talking about how these philosophical concepts couldn't exist because they didn't apply to animals. His constructive thinking and approach to grappling with ideas reminds me of you.
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Elastic
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Shadow
28 May 2015, 11:42 AM
Poll Results: Will the Sydney median house price reach $1 million by the end of 2015?
Yes 5 (16.1%)
No 26 (83.9%)


Sydney's median house price has already increased by $105K (from $840K to $945K) in nine months since I started this poll.

Only another $55K, or 5.8% growth, is needed over the remaining eight months of 2015 to see the median hit $1 million this year.

Would any of those people (the 84% majority) who voted 'no' be tempted to change their view yet?

Posted Image
I would have voted but there was no 3rd option.
Only a rat can win a rat race.

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peter fraser
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Terry
3 Jun 2015, 11:07 PM
Here's a useful primer for you in plain, simple English.

Why is systemic risk a problem for investors today?

Over the past several years we have witnessed an explosion in sovereign debt, credit creation, monetary policy, bubbles, derivatives and complexity of the system. This has been offset, in part, by productivity growth and modest inflation. Nevertheless, the growth in the negative factors is greater than the growth in the positive factors. So, on


Conventional approaches to risk management use some form of regression analysis in their models. Is this a problem?

Models are simply measurement tools to help us understand the world. At the core, many of these investment risk models use regression analysis. Regression analysis defines the statistical relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. So we simply need to keep in mind that regressions describe co-movement of one variable relative to one or more other variables. Because it is relative, it cannot describe something absolute, such as the risk of the whole system.
We need to have clarity about what these simplifying tools can and cannot do.



Which other sources of systemic risk have increased in recent years?

Hidden sources of leverage not only increase the leverage in the system, but also decrease trust in the system during periods of stress. One example of these hidden sources of leverage is the disappearance of the commercial paper market, hitherto an important source of funding, after the financial crisis of 2008. In its wake, investors have increased their appetite for liquidity, and accounting rules have made accounting for off-balance-sheet entities more difficult. Since the crisis, many smaller corporations have increased their reliance on bank loans and non-bank loans, and have not used commercial paper for their funding.

The next time the banking system turns sour on extending new credit, these corporations will be unable to roll over their debt, placing greater primacy on cash and liquidity at a time when the economy is probably heading into recession.

Of course, measuring systemic risk is a whole other problem. Some have suggested a simple scoring system that weighs the magnitude and direction of each of the systemic risk factors as one way for investors to overcome this challenge.

http://goo.gl/uVBH5H
O goody, a cut and paste of someone else's thoughts to make your point.

And yet when the P2P model is challenged with the very sensible caveat that these platforms haven't yet been tested in a downturn you said "Priceless. Gotta love the old fellas in our media confronting this new fandangled business model."

James you are blind to the risks that you take, and yet you go to great lengths to point out risk to other people who have been in front of you all through the global recession.

Just laughable.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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Terry
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peter fraser
4 Jun 2015, 12:02 AM
O goody, a cut and paste of someone else's thoughts to make your point.

And yet when the P2P model is challenged with the very sensible caveat that these platforms haven't yet been tested in a downturn you said "Priceless. Gotta love the old fellas in our media confronting this new fandangled business model."

James you are blind to the risks that you take, and yet you go to great lengths to point out risk to other people who have been in front of you all through the global recession.

Just laughable.
Yes, usually if something is in the media, suburbia will take it seriously.

P2P is risky. Stay away. It's not for the faint of heart. And ticket clipping is kept to a minimum.
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Terry
3 Jun 2015, 11:55 PM
I remember a philosophy lecture when I was an undergrad when determinism and free will was the topic. We had an adult student who needed to be controversial and kept talking about how these philosophical concepts couldn't exist because they didn't apply to animals. His constructive thinking and approach to grappling with ideas reminds me of you.
I remember a guy who made up his own language and posted here 5000+ times before he twigged that everyone was ignoring him and created a new sock. He reminds me of you.
Edited by Shadow, 4 Jun 2015, 12:13 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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peter fraser
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Terry
4 Jun 2015, 12:10 AM
Yes, usually if something is in the media, suburbia will take it seriously.

P2P is risky. Stay away. It's not for the faint of heart. And ticket clipping is kept to a minimum.
Going full on defensive I see.

Run out of logical argument?
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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Rastus2
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Shadow
4 Jun 2015, 12:12 AM
I remember a guy who made up his own language and posted here 5000+ times before he twigged that everyone was ignoring him and created a new sock. He reminds me of you.
Beartrap ? :D
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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skamy
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Terry
3 Jun 2015, 11:55 PM
I remember a philosophy lecture when I was an undergrad when determinism and free will was the topic. We had an adult student who needed to be controversial and kept talking about how these philosophical concepts couldn't exist because they didn't apply to animals. His constructive thinking and approach to grappling with ideas reminds me of you.
He had a point - did you miss it?


Elastic
3 Jun 2015, 11:59 PM
I would have voted but there was no 3rd option.
Did you want a maybe as well as a yes and a no?
Edited by skamy, 4 Jun 2015, 01:02 AM.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Terry
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peter fraser
4 Jun 2015, 12:15 AM
Going full on defensive I see.

Run out of logical argument?
Not defensive at all. If you refer to the article, you will notice that the author refers to regression in predictive models. Whenever that is mentioned here, yo get the equivalent of blank stares.

As for P2P, it has evolved out of the appetite for leverage. People are tapped out and need all the opportunities they can get.
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