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Will the Sydney median house price reach $1 million by the end of 2015?
Topic Started: 4 Sep 2014, 03:48 PM (22,836 Views)
Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Terry
3 Jun 2015, 01:01 PM
Sure. And that's why I suggested you were probably best suited to the shop floor where your talents could be fully exploited.
Better to be on the shop floor making heaps of money, rather than bumbling your way through business case presentations while trying to avoid being thought a twit.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Terry
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Shadow
3 Jun 2015, 01:06 PM
Better to be on the shop floor making heaps of money, rather than bumbling your way through business case presentations while trying to avoid being thought a twit.
Yes, you're right. Stick to your knitting. And in all fairness, people are spoon-fed predictions on a daily basis with no explanation about what those predictions are and how they are constructed. Most people don't have the time or the interest to even consider what they consume. So gut feelings, jury rigged paradigms, and extrapolating numbers in progression have an important place in how most people deal with thinking about house prices, even if the whole economy appears to be riding on it.
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Shadow
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Terry
3 Jun 2015, 02:14 PM
Yes, you're right. Stick to your knitting.
Exactly. If your approach is making you money, then stick with it.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Terry
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Shadow
3 Jun 2015, 02:26 PM
Exactly. If your approach is making you money, then stick with it.
Sure, even better if it's scaleable.
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Terry
3 Jun 2015, 03:08 PM
Sure, even better if it's scaleable.
Even better if it's leverageable.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Terry
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Shadow
3 Jun 2015, 03:09 PM
Even better if it's leverageable.
Scaleability. Leveraging is a gamble with un-quantifiable risk. Most Aussies don't understand that as most of them haven't experience the adverse effects of leveraging. The more leveraged the economy becomes, the greater the potential impacts. That isn't understood widely either as we don't really have the advanced skill sets in Australia. Most people with those skill sets reside in the U.S>
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Shadow
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Terry
3 Jun 2015, 06:11 PM
Leveraging is a gamble with un-quantifiable risk.
So is crossing the road.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Terry
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Shadow
3 Jun 2015, 07:06 PM
So is crossing the road.
You can use eyesight, judgement and movement to cross a road. Not so with the negative impacts of leveraging, which can be far beyond your control and you cannot use your senses to guide you. Big difference.
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Terry
3 Jun 2015, 07:41 PM
You can use eyesight, judgement and movement to cross a road. Not so with the negative impacts of leveraging, which can be far beyond your control and you cannot use your senses to guide you. Big difference.
The worst thing that can happen from leverage is you lose some money. You could get killed crossing the road, so the risk is much higher. And you don't have a clue how to quantify that risk. The impact from other road users is far beyond your control.
Edited by Shadow, 3 Jun 2015, 08:02 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Terry
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Shadow
3 Jun 2015, 08:00 PM
The worst thing that can happen from leverage is you lose some money. You could get killed crossing the road, so the risk is much higher. And you don't have a clue how to quantify that risk. The impact from other road users is far beyond your control.
That is true. The risk from being hit by a car has potentially more impact. However, crossing the road is something than you have relative control over. You have no control over the impacts of leveraging, just like people who got swamped by the GFC. Regardless of how smart they thought they thought their actions were prior to the GFC, they were unable to control the impact. Greater the leverage, the greater the impact to the system. Globally and nationally, nothing has changed and risk remains high. No idea what the next shock will be and what will trigger it.
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