Of course, you're more than welcome to explain or give an overview of your methodology.
LOL, I've spent the past seven years explaining why there is no bubble and why Sydney house prices would boom, and you've engaged in those discussions (to the best of your ability) with your various socks, from Forward Thinker through to Catweasel, Emmanuel, Kuyuss and now Terry.
LOL, I've spent the past seven years explaining why there is no bubble and why Sydney house prices would boom, and you've engaged in those discussions (to the best of your ability) with your various socks, from Forward Thinker through to Catweasel, Emmanuel, Kuyuss and now Terry.
I think that stringing together what you believe is not predictive modelling that enables you to quantify a price or even a price range over time. And to do that, you start with a methodology. If you don't have a methodology for predictive modeling, that's fine. Just say so.
You've already conceded that your thinking isn't very deep, so lets just leave it there.
By that answer, I can assume there is no predictive modeling whatsoever and you don't want to admit it. There's nothing wrong with that, but there's no reason to be childish about it. By deduction, no modeling so you use subjective guesses of whatever information you consume, which may or may not be influenced by 7-year principle. No shame in that.
Remember the bears trying to argue Steve Keen was right even though the 40% crash didnt happen by 2010 and Keen had already walked up the mountain? They were arguing everyone should give him till the end of the decade
I wonder how many people sold their homes on Keen's promotion of super profits on falling prices.
Some bears even today think the price rises will reverse, so silly.
GloomBoomDoom
28 May 2015, 03:58 PM
I don't really care at all. I was just pointing out my interpretation and believe he has extended it by a year. I still believe he was posting as Michael from Sydney back in 2008 claiming the Sydney median would be $1mil by 2011.
That is your own paranoia showing - You cannot expect anyone to believe that nonsense when Shadow has posted everywhere else with a consistent prediction.
Don't be such a sore loser. Maybe when the next downturn hits you can join me and the others on here who cautioned against negative speculation in the housing market and advised people of the pain it can bring.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Look this is not difficult. If I were going to release a new iPhone into Australia and I wanted to estimate the potential size of the market, revenue and profit. I would build a business case and show calculations for my estimation. I can even go a little deeper and show the estimate based on switchers and upgraders, and even customer lifecycle. Without a methodology, you would look like a complete twit in front of colleagues and customers like retailers. The more robust my model is, the more believable and convincing the estimate is. If you gave estimate and then rattled off a story based on why you thought people want to buy an iPhone, you would probably be more suited to working on the shop floor selling the iPhone to customers.
The basis of your methodology might be that prices double every 7 years. At least that's a start. Saying that a price will be $XX in XX years usually requires a model. Your steady line of patter can be built into the assumptions and parameters of the model. Predictions are based on techniques such as regression, not something plucked from the sky or gut feelings.
Its the same old catty poster who is throwing the same old hissy fits because he cannot bring himself to cough up his doomster fur balls which he swallowed.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Without a methodology, you would look like a complete twit in front of colleagues and customers like retailers.
If saving face is more important to you than making heaps of money, then you should do everything in your power to prevent people calling you a twit. Personally, I don't care what random strangers say about me, when I'm the one making all the money.
If saving face is more important to you than making heaps of money, then you should do everything in your power to prevent people calling you a twit. Personally, I don't care what random strangers say about me, when I'm the one making all the money.
Sure. And that's why I suggested you were probably best suited to the shop floor where your talents could be fully exploited.
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