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Will the Sydney median house price reach $1 million by the end of 2015?
Topic Started: 4 Sep 2014, 03:48 PM (22,838 Views)
Shadow
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newjez
30 May 2015, 12:32 AM
Want to run one of these votes on your Perth prediction shady?
Already done, here... http://australianpropertyforum.com/topic/10320022

Most people are voting against me again, but that's no surprise.

I had virtually no supporters back in 2008 when I predicted the Sydney median would approach $1M by 2015.

Whereas now pretty much everyone (apart from Rastus) knows I was right.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Terry
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Shadow
3 Jun 2015, 09:26 AM
Already done, here... http://australianpropertyforum.com/topic/10320022

Most people are voting against me again, but that's no surprise.

I had virtually no supporters back in 2008 when I predicted the Sydney median would approach $1M by 2015.

Whereas now pretty much everyone (apart from Rastus) knows I was right.
Did you apply the 7-year principle for the prediction? If you had of, you're probably not that far off the mark. I think you'll find that most people would probably agree with your method, if that is what you use. Hell, you don't even need a calculator. You could easily graph that one and cut and paste into a Powerpoint slide.
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Shadow
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Terry
3 Jun 2015, 10:20 AM
you're probably not that far off the mark
Thanks. Yes, I reckon I got very close, if not spot on!

Quote:
 
I think you'll find that most people would probably agree
They do now, but they didn't back in 2008 when I first predicted the Sydney median would approach $1M by 2015.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Terry
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Shadow
3 Jun 2015, 10:27 AM
Thanks. Yes, I reckon I got very close, if not spot on!


They do now, but they didn't back in 2008 when I first predicted the Sydney median would approach $1M by 2015.
So after all that battling over basically nothing, that's all we have: the 7-year principle. I think you'll find that the 7-year principle was alive and kicking back in 08 and was a rallying cry in most seminars and local agents across the nation.
Edited by Terry, 3 Jun 2015, 10:36 AM.
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Shadow
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Terry
3 Jun 2015, 10:35 AM
So after all that battling over basically nothing, that's all we have: the 7-year principle. I think you'll find that the 7-year principle was alive and kicking back in 08 and was a rallying cry in most seminars and local agents across the nation.
If that's what works for you, then use it. At the end of the day, all that really matters is how much profit each of us made by backing our predictions with some capital (preferably leveraged!). If you profited as much as I have from the boom, then well done. :tu:

If you didn't... better luck next time. There's always Perth, which will approach $1M by 2021. There's still lots of potential for you to catch up by following my Perth forecast, even if you were too late to realise I was right about Sydney (it's probably too late now for you to get in on the Sydney action).
Edited by Shadow, 3 Jun 2015, 10:42 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Terry
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Shadow
3 Jun 2015, 10:40 AM
If that's what works for you, then use it. At the end of the day, all that really matters is how much profit each of us made by backing our predictions with some capital (preferably leveraged!). If you profited as much as I have from the boom, then well done. :tu:

If you didn't... better luck next time. There's always Perth, which will approach $1M by 2021. There's still lots of potential for you to catch up by following my Perth forecast.
I think you said you used it. What's the truth?
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Shadow
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Terry
3 Jun 2015, 10:41 AM
I think you said you used it.
What made you think that?
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Terry
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Shadow
3 Jun 2015, 10:43 AM
What made you think that?
Because that's a common meme in the suburbs and it fits in with your prediction
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Shadow
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Terry
3 Jun 2015, 10:44 AM
Because that's a common meme in the suburbs and it fits in with your prediction
OK. Not very deep, but thanks for explaining the rationale behind your thoughts.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Terry
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Shadow
3 Jun 2015, 11:20 AM
OK. Not very deep, but thanks for explaining the rationale behind your thoughts.
Yes, not very deep but people like patterns, which is why the 7-year principle is popular. You can string together 10 assumptions and make a story and make a prediction, but unless you have a methodology of sorts, it's no more than a spit ball being closest to a target. Nothing wrong with being a spitball champ though.

Of course, you're more than welcome to explain or give an overview of your methodology.
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