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Will the Sydney median house price reach $1 million by the end of 2015?
Topic Started: 4 Sep 2014, 03:48 PM (22,841 Views)
Shadow
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Trollie
7 May 2015, 08:48 PM
Shadow, you should get a greatest hits montage ready of all the bear crap that's been thrown out over the years about sydney house prices crashing.
If only Earthsta was still here! What a twit he was. :lol
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Chris
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Shadow
7 May 2015, 10:40 PM
If only Earthsta was still here! What a twit he was. :lol
Mental health is a serious issue. It's hard to watch you talking to your own socks let alone watching the idolisation of yourself that goes with these 'impromptu' comments from your own socks.


Edited by Chris, 7 May 2015, 10:59 PM.
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Shadow
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Chris
7 May 2015, 10:57 PM
It's hard to watch you talking to your own socks let alone watching the idolisation of yourself that goes with these 'impromptu' comments from your own socks.

Then stop watching. Put me and all my socks on ignore. Simple.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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GloomBoomDoom
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Shadow
7 May 2015, 10:38 PM
So you're predicting a 6% fall from April to December?

Brave call considering clearance rates have increased to almost 90% in April and May so far.

Growth was actually accelerating, even before this week's rate cut.
It is possible it could fall 6% especially on the back of the rapid speculative gains recently. It's called increased volatility.
MSE
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Trollie
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Chris
7 May 2015, 10:57 PM
Mental health is a serious issue. It's hard to watch you talking to your own socks let alone watching the idolisation of yourself that goes with these 'impromptu' comments from your own socks.

I'm not shadow you fool. Add that to the list shit you can't get right.
GloomBoomDoom
8 May 2015, 11:38 AM
It is possible it could fall 6% especially on the back of the rapid speculative gains recently. It's called increased volatility.
Anything is possible. Betting on the possibility of unlikely events has cost the bears on here millions in combined losses.
Edited by Trollie, 8 May 2015, 12:02 PM.
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GloomBoomDoom
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http://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/experts-warn-of-worker-exodus-as-sydney-median-house-price-nears-1-million/story-fndban6l-1227355128957
MSE
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Perth and Darwin are very different from Melbourne and Sydney. Perth (and Darwin) grew very quickly on the back of mining and are therefore slowing down. But Melbourne and Sydney are still experiencing huge immigration rates, both from interstate and overseas.

I am not actually sure that the bubble will burst in Melb and Sydney. Melbourne is expensive but Sydney is just insane! And a lot of this comes from foreign investment. People who bought years ago have made more money in real estate than they could ever have hoped for. Sure, there is a lot of debt, and if interest rates rise or they lose their jobs they might have to sell off an IP or two. But with the amount of foreign investment going on, and set to double over the next few years, we could well find that the Chinese own just about everything along with the very rich, and the middle and working classes can’t get onto the ladder.

And we really can’t trust that the government will put a stop to foreign investment. They talk about tightening controls but let’s see it happen first. I wouldn’t be surprised if they do nothing until people start marching in the streets, and of course, by then it will be too late.
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Guest
14 May 2015, 11:52 PM
Perth and Darwin are very different from Melbourne and Sydney. Perth (and Darwin) grew very quickly on the back of mining and are therefore slowing down. But Melbourne and Sydney are still experiencing huge immigration rates, both from interstate and overseas.

I am not actually sure that the bubble will burst in Melb and Sydney. Melbourne is expensive but Sydney is just insane! And a lot of this comes from foreign investment. People who bought years ago have made more money in real estate than they could ever have hoped for. Sure, there is a lot of debt, and if interest rates rise or they lose their jobs they might have to sell off an IP or two. But with the amount of foreign investment going on, and set to double over the next few years, we could well find that the Chinese own just about everything along with the very rich, and the middle and working classes can’t get onto the ladder.

And we really can’t trust that the government will put a stop to foreign investment. They talk about tightening controls but let’s see it happen first. I wouldn’t be surprised if they do nothing until people start marching in the streets, and of course, by then it will be too late.
If high immigration and population growth is the answer to maintaing prices, surely you can explain to me why house prices are cheaper than ten years ago yet the population has increased by 25 million over the last ten years. Did I mentione that interest rates have been zero for the last seven.

Why are Zimbabwe prices not through the roof then ? They have a high population and population growth.

And why are house prices in china dropping ? They have a billion or more people.

Do you think it has anything at all to do with wheather or not you have jobs for them ?

China is starting to collapse, just like Japan did after 20 plus years of rapid rise. Was all good while it lasted there too. Then what happened ?

The chinese are helping to destroy the market, just as they have in WA. The macro of the bigger picture.
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George
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15 May 2015, 09:45 AM
If high immigration and population growth is the answer to maintaing prices, surely you can explain to me why house prices are cheaper than ten years ago yet the population has increased by 25 million over the last ten years.
Oversupply (they had a big construction boom a few years ago).

Quote:
 
Why are Zimbabwe prices not through the roof then ? They have a high population and population growth.
Plenty of supply relative to demand.

Quote:
 
And why are house prices in china dropping ? They have a billion or more people.
Too much supply (they've been having a building boom).

Quote:
 
Do you think it has anything at all to do with wheather or not you have jobs for them
It's more to to with the level of supply relative to the population growth.

Quote:
 
China is starting to collapse, just like Japan did after 20 plus years of rapid rise. Was all good while it lasted there too. Then what happened
The population fell, which meant, you guessed it, too much supply.

Do you see a common theme here?
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Poll Results: Will the Sydney median house price reach $1 million by the end of 2015?
Yes 5 (16.1%)
No 26 (83.9%)


Sydney's median house price has already increased by $105K (from $840K to $945K) in nine months since I started this poll.

Only another $55K, or 5.8% growth, is needed over the remaining eight months of 2015 to see the median hit $1 million this year.

Would any of those people (the 84% majority) who voted 'no' be tempted to change their view yet?

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Edited by Shadow, 28 May 2015, 11:43 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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