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Perth Construction Boom
Topic Started: 4 Sep 2014, 10:01 AM (9,613 Views)
Jimbo
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Perthite
6 Sep 2014, 01:14 PM
Don't worry Jimbo... this thread is noise...

Why bother.
Mike is deluded enough to believe that enough people read this shit for it to have an impact on the market.

He believes that my aim is to post negative stuff to cause a market crash.

He is deluded enough to have his own economics blog with zero followers and then place a link to that in his APF footer.

He is trying to create the impression that he is an economics wizard who can see into the future. He makes vague predictions so that his bases are covered either way and then tells everyone that he predicted everything that happened after the event.

Mike is pure comedy gold and he just keeps on giving.
Mike
6 Sep 2014, 01:07 PM
2.5% is SQM data not mine. If you think all data that does not agree with your point of view is bullshit, that is fine but you lack any credibility when you do so.

Jimbo does not like any of the indices so he has invented his own, fair enough.
The problem is though Mike, that you used REIWA numbers to claim a fall in vacancies but you chose to use the lower percentage rate quoted by SQM because the REIWA number of 3.8% didn't suit your claim that vacancies are well below 3%.

So you used multiple data sources and cherry picked the bits that suited your argument.

I didn't do that. You did.

You are trying to spruik the market Mike. No two ways about it.

Quote:
 
The US economy is going strongly, all leading indicators pointing to accelerating economic growth and future job creation.


Why such a shitty print then Mike? Worst for the year and well below the markets expectation of 230 000. Isn't the employment number considered as a leading indicator?
Edited by Jimbo, 6 Sep 2014, 02:03 PM.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Mike
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Jimbo
6 Sep 2014, 01:43 PM







Why such a shitty print then Mike? Worst for the year and well below the markets expectation of 230 000. Isn't the employment number considered as a leading indicator?
Quote:
 
Mike is deluded enough to believe that enough people read this shit for it to have an impact on the market.

He believes that my aim is to post negative stuff to cause a market crash.

He is deluded enough to have his own economics blog with zero followers and then place a link to that in his APF footer.

He is trying to create the impression that he is an economics wizard who can see into the future. He makes vague predictions so that his bases are covered either way and then tells everyone that he predicted everything that happened after the event.


I am beginning to think you are a stalker. Don't be seen standing out my window.

You're statements are naïve as they are foolish. Go read posts from 2 years ago then come back and tell me I was wrong, idiot.

Quote:
 
Mike is pure comedy gold and he just keeps on giving.

The problem is though Mike, that you used REIWA numbers to claim a fall in vacancies but you chose to use the lower percentage rate quoted by SQM because the REIWA number of 3.8% didn't suit your claim that vacancies are well below 3%.


I have no issue with any data source, I use them all. As stated many times the true facts are likely in between them all.

Reiwa shows the vacancy rate falling from 4.1% to 3.8%. It shows rental stocks falling, It shows properties for sale falling.

SQM shows a rental vacancy rate of 2.5% as they have a different data set which measures different areas.

As you no longer like either data set, please continue to use your own realestate.com.au searches as a true guide to the market. Well done.

Quote:
 
So you used multiple data sources and cherry picked the bits that suited your argument.


What data is cherry picked? It is all on SQM and Reiwa for all to see. Why are you sounding so desperate.

Quote:
 
I didn't do that. You did.

You are trying to spruik the market Mike. No two ways about it.



No I am reporting the data as it stands. Here it is again for you, as this thread is about a construction boom.

Quote:
 
Western Australia
• Seasonally adjusted building approvals increased
by 23.1% to 3,103 between June and July.
• Approvals rose by 25.0% over the year and grew
by 20.8% over the three months to July 2014.


http://www.treasury.wa.gov.au/cms/uploadedFiles/_Treasury/Economic_Data/building_approvals_july2014.pdf

Stop working yourself up into knots, the facts will work themselves out over time.

http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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Perthite
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Mike the joke.

http://australianpropertyforum.com/topic/9511201/5/
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Mike
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Jimbo
6 Sep 2014, 01:43 PM




Quote:
 
Why such a shitty print then Mike? Worst for the year and well below the markets expectation of 230 000. Isn't the employment number considered as a leading indicator?


Employment is a lagging indicator, it represents what the economy was doing a few months ago. Basic economics 101.

Since you like to focus on the negatives, here is some positives for you to brighten your day.

Quote:
 
Increased investment by businesses and a slightly improved trade picture prompted the revision, which lifted the estimated annual rate of growth in April, May and June to 4.2 percent, up from the government’s initial reading of 4 percent in late July


Quote:
 
Not only was there an upward revision, but the composition points to solid growth in the second half of this year,” said Stuart G. Hoffman, chief economist at the PNC Financial Services Group in Pittsburgh. “Businesses have bounced back after the bad winter disrupted production and demand


Quote:
 
In a separate report on Thursday, the Labor Department said initial claims for unemployment benefits dropped last week by 1,000, to 298,000, helping push the eight-week average for new claims to below 300,000 for the first time since April 2006, well before the onset of the recession.


http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/29/business/us-economy-grew-at-brisk-rate-in-second-quarter.html?_r=0

Quote:
 
One report showed the non-manufacturing industry expanded the most in nine years in August. The Commerce Department said exports grew faster than imports in July, a positive for overall economic growth. Two other indicators showed that U.S. employers continue to add workers as one the fastest paces on record.


Quote:
 
The Institute for Supply Management’s monthly index of economic activity in non-manufacturing industries jumped to 59.6 last month, better than Wall Street’s consensus expectation and the highest since August 2005.


Quote:
 
Hiring in non-manufacturing industries accelerated last month from July, the ISM report showed. Two separate measures of the labour market sent a similar message. Back-office service provider ADP LLC’s latest survey of the labour market said private payrolls increased by 204,000 in August, compared with a gain of 212,000 in July.

The August reading was the weakest since March, but remained at a historically elevated level. Separately, a government report said the four-week moving average of initial jobless claims rose slightly last week to 302,750 from 299,750 the previous week. The number of Americans seeking jobless benefits remains at historically low levels, indicating the unemployment rate will continue to fall.


Do you really want to keep playing this game.

As for my blog, I suggest you read in carefully. A lot of what I posted in 2010 is unfolding now and has been happening for the past 4 years. Not bad considering I wrote it 4 years ago.

I also posted on the US economy more then 2 years ago when it was still in struggling, I could see the signs then that a return to strong growth was coming. Most of these forums disagreed.

I am not expert, just an average joe sharing his opinion or am I not allowed to do that either in Jimbo's world.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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Jimbo
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Mike
6 Sep 2014, 10:15 PM
Reiwa shows the vacancy rate falling from 4.1% to 3.8%. It shows rental stocks falling, It shows properties for sale falling.

SQM shows a rental vacancy rate of 2.5% as they have a different data set which measures different areas.
So why quote REIWA to support your argument that vacancies are falling but quote SQM for the vacancy rate?

Cherry picking Mike.

Meanwhile, REIWA is showing vacancies up by a 1/3rd on this time last year but down by only 122 properties in the last month. Hardly a recovery in the rental market.

Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Mike
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Jimbo
6 Sep 2014, 11:18 PM
So why quote REIWA to support your argument that vacancies are falling but quote SQM for the vacancy rate?

Cherry picking Mike.

Meanwhile, REIWA is showing vacancies up by a 1/3rd on this time last year but down by only 122 properties in the last month. Hardly a recovery in the rental market.
The vacancy figures for both Reiwa and SQM are present, what are you talking about.

I never said vacancy rates were not up on last year, I only stated they had been falling this past month which you just confirmed.

So why are you debating the point with me when this thread is about construction.

http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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Jimbo
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Mike
6 Sep 2014, 11:28 PM
The vacancy figures for both Reiwa and SQM are present, what are you talking about.

I never said vacancy rates were not up on last year, I only stated they had been falling this past month which you just confirmed.

So why are you debating the point with me when this thread is about construction.
Mike,

You started this thread to create the impression that residential construction was going to save WA and that everything was looking rosy in the property market.

Mining doesn't matter, rental vacancy rates are falling and house prices will go up another 5%.

You started this thread to try and spruik the market because you believe that your words have that power.

You are a deluded wannabee economist with a half baked idea of how the world works and you believe that people read what you say and take it seriously.

Strange.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Mike
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Jimbo
6 Sep 2014, 11:49 PM
Mike,

You started this thread to create the impression that residential construction was going to save WA and that everything was looking rosy in the property market.

Mining doesn't matter, rental vacancy rates are falling and house prices will go up another 5%.

You started this thread to try and spruik the market because you believe that your words have that power.

You are a deluded wannabee economist with a half baked idea of how the world works and you believe that people read what you say and take it seriously.

Strange.
Just for Jimbo, seems you cannot read the OP. So here is the very post again.

http://australianpropertyforum.com/topic/10165272/1/

Quote:
 
http://www.treasury.wa.gov.au/cms/uploadedFiles/_Treasury/Economic_Data/building_approvals_july2014.pdf

Building approvals increased to 3,103 from June to July which is a 23% increase.

Building approvals for June were 2,457. So from June to July we have had an increase of 646 new houses approved for construction above Junes level.

http://www.treasury.wa.gov.au/cms/uploadedFiles/_Treasury/Economic_Data/building_approvals_june2014.pdf

FHB grants paid in June for new house construction is 657 or 26.8% of all new construction is for First Home Buyers in June.

http://www.treasury.wa.gov.au/cms/TwoColumns_Content.aspx?pageid=13730&id=641

In July 707 FHB grants were paid for new construction out of a total of 3,103 approved properties. This is 22.8% of new construction. FHB as a % of approved properties decreased 4% from June to July.

So who is building all these new properties.

Upgraders. All across Perth you can find large houses under construction, far more then you will find in FHB areas under $430,000 in value with the new stamp duty concessions.

This months reporting could also be a bit of catch up after a few slower months of growth.

There can also be a delay between building approvals and finance approved. Building approvals tend to happen prior to finance approval as a Lender requires the building application to give unconditional finance approval on the construction.

However the FHB grant and building applications tend to happen at the same time as a lender also wants to see you have been approved for the FHBG which forms part or all of the deposit required for unconditional finance approval.

If there is a lag in the FHBG data it should start appear next month or data for August.

At present the data and what I see around Perth is a large increase in house construction in the $600,000+ market and the middle to expensive apartment market.

You can see a lot of subdivision in inner city suburbs, new estates popping up in more expensive locations. This is primarily driven by a lack of quality stock on the market in desirable locations. The quality homes have mostly all been sold over the previous 2 years. People cannot find what they want in that middle to expensive price bracket, so they are building.



No where in my opening post do I mention property price rising. No where do I talk about rental vacancies or stock on market of any kind.

You are inventing things in you're own mind that do not exist.

You raised those issues in you're own posts, not me. For reasons I do not understand.

My opening post was only about construction and my thoughts on why it is increasing. That is all I posted.

So stop spreading you're lies, you raised these other points not me. This thread is about building approvals increasing by 23%.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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Jimbo
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Mike
7 Sep 2014, 12:36 AM
No where do I talk about rental vacancies or stock on market of any kind.

You raised those issues in you're own posts, not me. For reasons I do not understand.

http://australianpropertyforum.com/single/?p=8505110&t=10165272
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Mike
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Jimbo
7 Sep 2014, 01:22 AM
Are you a slow learner?

I said in the OP of this thread (first post) where do I talk about prices, vacancies or anything else. I even quoted the first power in this thread for you. You still don't read it.

This link you posted is a response after you started talking about it, not me.

I simply posted about the 23% increase in building approvals over 1 month.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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