Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]


Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
  • 6
  • 14
Perth Construction Boom
Topic Started: 4 Sep 2014, 10:01 AM (9,614 Views)
skamy
Member Avatar


Jimbo
5 Sep 2014, 07:40 PM
Mike,

Your agenda is pretty clear.

You are trying to create the impression that the Perth property market is on the verge of an upswing and that anyone who doesn't buy now will be missing out.

You have created the persona of a young and successful property developer with his fingers on the market pulse ready to make his next million. Because you are such a nice guy, you are sharing that info with the general public so that they can get rich too.

You try and validate yourself by putting a link to your economics blog a the foot of your posts.

But (unfortunately for you), you keep tripping yourself up.

You claim I am sad because I have posted a lot for the last month, but you have been on here for years?

Years and years of posting the same shit, trying to spruik up the value of the investment property you bought for too much money at the wrong time because you thought that you would get rich quick.

Mike, you have been outed a million times on here. Maybe you should just give up.



Right, so according to you, building more houses reduces supply?

If you say so!
The increase in construction is coming off a sustained period where building did not keep up with population growth. There was a lot of overcrowding in Perth with young professionals to nervous to buy due to the GFC, forced into cramped shared rentals.

Perth can now expect a period of catch up then a return to its usual level of home building, hopefully it will be a long time before we see another shock as big as the GFC to the economy.

Vacancy rates rising from 4000 to 6000 can be explained by the fact that at the peak most rentals rented the first day or so, whether or not the tenants moved in, in order to get the property they had to do this. Now with the heat gone landlords will accept longer vacant time and the price of the high end market has taken a hit. It is no big deal this kind of change happens routinely in property markets throughout the world.

Vacancy rates can be much higher and property prices still rising.

House prices don't drop on a whim people just don't sell if they don't get what they want. It takes a massive shock in a stressed market to make people sell below what their neighbors recently sold for. For most people their home is their biggest asset and they don't throw it away at bargain basement prices unless they are extremely stressed.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Jimbo
Member Avatar


skamy
5 Sep 2014, 08:20 PM
The increase in construction is coming off a sustained period where building did not keep up with population growth. There was a lot of overcrowding in Perth with young professionals to nervous to buy due to the GFC, forced into cramped shared rentals.

Totally agree.
Quote:
 

Perth can now expect a period of catch up then a return to its usual level of home building, hopefully it will be a long time before we see another shock as big as the GFC to the economy.


We didn't see the GFC. The Chinese saw to that. It has been deferred.

Quote:
 
House prices don't drop on a whim people just don't sell if they don't get what they want. It takes a massive shock in a stressed market to make people sell below what their neighbors recently sold for. For most people their home is their biggest asset and they don't throw it away at bargain basement prices unless they are extremely stressed.


I don't expect to see a bargain basement in Perth. I expect zero or slight negative growth, a weak rental market and a big fall in the mid to top end price ranges.

Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
goldbug
Default APF Avatar


Yes. But it only takes one extremely stressed individual to sell their house and then the whole steet is downgraded. What happens on the way up happens on the way down as well. We sas that in 2009, or did you forget that.
Shadow was hopelessly wrong about the Gold Bull Market.
What else is he wrong about?
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Jimbo
Member Avatar


goldbug
5 Sep 2014, 08:49 PM
Yes. But it only takes one extremely stressed individual to sell their house and then the whole steet is downgraded. What happens on the way up happens on the way down as well. We sas that in 2009, or did you forget that.
Very true.

If next door is on for 380k, you ain't gonna get 500k.

That is why the house down the road from me isn't going to sell for $580k when two doors down is on for $450k.

Nothing is worth nothing until you sell it.

Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Mike
Default APF Avatar


Jimbo
5 Sep 2014, 07:40 PM
Mike,








Quote:
 
Your agenda is pretty clear.


An agenda to post the facts and not a distorted view point.

Quote:
 
You are trying to create the impression that the Perth property market is on the verge of an upswing and that anyone who doesn't buy now will be missing out.


Then why have I stated for 18 months now that I think Perth will be flat over the next few years starting In winter 2015. You really need to read posts, you have some thought in your mind that all bulls are after endless growth. I am realist and deal with the world as it is not what I wish it to be unlike yourself.

Quote:
 
You have created the persona of a young and successful property developer with his fingers on the market pulse ready to make his next million. Because you are such a nice guy, you are sharing that info with the general public so that they can get rich too.


I did not create a persona. I am who I am. My Wife and I have been very successful over the years. I mostly post to refute the lies posted by Bears to distort the truth. Like yourself you twist the truth to suite your agenda, you have been caught out on numerous occasions telling blatant lies. You slide sideways to avoid answering truthfully and invent fanciful stories.

I just tell it as I see it and what I think will happen next. The reason I am right most of the time as my record here confirms is because I don't twists facts to support an agenda, while most Bears do. Bears tend to see the world they want rather then it is.

Quote:
 
You try and validate yourself by putting a link to your economics blog a the foot of your posts.
Many people have posted here agreeing with it, if you don't like it post in the blog.

Quote:
 
But (unfortunately for you), you keep tripping yourself up.
The reason you always respond to my posts is I have caught you out many times telling us all lies. I will keep doing so.
When you are not trying to distort facts and just report them as they stand, you can make a good debate. However you're vested interest forces you to tell lies to force down prices because if prices rise, you sold at the wrong time and stand to lose a lot of money.

For myself if prices fall I get to buy more land at cheaper prices for development. If prices rise I can sell properties I have developed for a nice profit. I don't stand to lose anything as my portfolio is structured so I can make gains in both types of markets. I deliberately set it up this way as an serious investor/developer understands property prices fall, rise and stagnate.

My goal is to make money in all markets and I am very successful at it. As stated at the right time I will be Bear but that time is not yet.

Quote:
 
You claim I am sad because I have posted a lot for the last month, but you have been on here for years?

Years and years of posting the same shit, trying to spruik up the value of the investment property you bought for too much money at the wrong time because you thought that you would get rich quick.

Mike, you have been outed a million times on here. Maybe you should just give up.


More lies, not worth wasting time responding to.

Quote:
 
Right, so according to you, building more houses reduces supply?

If you say so!


You're words not mine, if that's what you believe.
Jimbo
5 Sep 2014, 09:01 PM
Very true.

If next door is on for 380k, you ain't gonna get 500k.

That is why the house down the road from me isn't going to sell for $580k when two doors down is on for $450k.

Nothing is worth nothing until you sell it.
Same is true in reverse, the house for $500k could sell and the one next door for $380k just got a substantial increase in valuation.

Many houses more expensive often sell first in the same area as cheaper properties, as it is normally a far superior property. Depends on the buyers and what they want. The cheaper property is cheaper for a reason and may not have the features of the more expensive property.
Edited by Mike, 6 Sep 2014, 09:05 AM.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Jimbo
Member Avatar


Mike
6 Sep 2014, 09:03 AM
An agenda to post the facts and not a distorted view point.

Like the bullshit you have posted in this thread?

Quote:
 
Then why have I stated for 18 months now that I think Perth will be flat over the next few years starting In winter 2015. You really need to read posts, you have some thought in your mind that all bulls are after endless growth. I am realist and deal with the world as it is not what I wish it to be unlike yourself.


You are trying to squeeze 5% more from the market so that you can break even.

Quote:
 
Like yourself you twist the truth to suite your agenda, you have been caught out on numerous occasions telling blatant lies. You slide sideways to avoid answering truthfully and invent fanciful stories.


What, like your 2.5% fantasy vacancy rate?

Quote:
 
The reason you always respond to my posts is I have caught you out many times telling us all lies.


Who is "us all". I haven't lied, you have just decided that I have lied. You are a nutter.

Meanwhile Mike, what about yesterdays NFP print.

How does that sit with your predictions for the US economy?

ha ha ha







Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
goldbug
Default APF Avatar


Mike
6 Sep 2014, 09:03 AM
Same is true in reverse, the house for $500k could sell and the one next door for $380k just got a substantial increase in valuation.

Many houses more expensive often sell first in the same area as cheaper properties, as it is normally a far superior property. Depends on the buyers and what they want. The cheaper property is cheaper for a reason and may not have the features of the more expensive property.
We know that mike, haven't you been reading the posts? That's why Perth is falling again, despite the fact that highly renovated inner city homes are still being sold. They abviously aren't selling for enough to cover the costs of the renovations now.
Shadow was hopelessly wrong about the Gold Bull Market.
What else is he wrong about?
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Elastic
Member Avatar


Jimbo and Mike.
SQM use a different method of calculating vacancy rates.
A property needs to be advertised for rent and vacant for 3 weeks before it is counted by SQM.
This is why there is a difference between REIWA and SQM data.
Cheers
Only a rat can win a rat race.

Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Mike
Default APF Avatar


Jimbo
6 Sep 2014, 09:41 AM
Like the bullshit you have posted in this thread?




You are trying to squeeze 5% more from the market so that you can break even.




What, like your 2.5% fantasy vacancy rate?




Who is "us all". I haven't lied, you have just decided that I have lied. You are a nutter.

Meanwhile Mike, what about yesterdays NFP print.

How does that sit with your predictions for the US economy?

ha ha ha






This thread is about a 23% increase in building approvals as shown by the WA Treasury Data for July.

Squeeze 5%, why. Long prior to you joining this forum my stated prediction was for Perth to record 15% growth! we meet that goal last year. My prediction is meet. However I have stated I think the market will grow another 3-5% by next Winter.

2.5% is SQM data not mine. If you think all data that does not agree with your point of view is bullshit, that is fine but you lack any credibility when you do so.

The US economy is going strongly, all leading indicators pointing to accelerating economic growth and future job creation.

Did the US economy lose jobs did it?
Elastic
6 Sep 2014, 11:19 AM
Jimbo and Mike.
SQM use a different method of calculating vacancy rates.
A property needs to be advertised for rent and vacant for 3 weeks before it is counted by SQM.
This is why there is a difference between REIWA and SQM data.
Cheers
Spot on. This is why I use multiple sources.

The true facts are normally somewhere in between all of the indices.

Jimbo does not like any of the indices so he has invented his own, fair enough.
Edited by Mike, 6 Sep 2014, 01:08 PM.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Perthite
Member Avatar


Don't worry Jimbo... this thread is noise...

Why bother.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
ZetaBoards - Free Forum Hosting
Fully Featured & Customizable Free Forums
Learn More · Sign-up Now
Go to Next Page
« Previous Topic · Australian Property Forum · Next Topic »
Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
  • 6
  • 14



Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.

Forum Rules: The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.

Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.

Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.

This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.

For more information go to Limitations on Exclusive Rights: Fair Use

Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ

Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy