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Perth Construction Boom
Topic Started: 4 Sep 2014, 10:01 AM (9,615 Views)
Mike
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Jimbo
5 Sep 2014, 12:15 PM
Mike,

You are reverting to type again (being a total twat).

I have never said that I use REIWA rental vacancy numbers?

I never trust vested interest data. I look at many sources.

As for agents not removing listings from realestate.com.au, I am not bloody stupid. I know there are delays but the fact is the total number of listings has been trending up.

Meanwhile, what is the basis for the REIWA vacancy rate?

Whatever you say about balanced markets Mike, there are close to 6000 properties available for rent, up from around 4000 this time last year. The exact REIWA number increase is 1964 more properties than a year ago.

1964 more empty rentals, in an environment of falling migration levels and increased building activity.

How exactly do you see this level falling?




Why use SQM? I thought you were looking at REIWA numbers? Their website states a 3.8% vacancy rate which according to your own words is above what is considered a balanced market.


Like always you missed the big picture of my comments and focus on one small area.

You were the one who focused on Reiwa, if you don't like Reiwa use SQM or another data provider.

SQM provides a broader snap shot of the rental market as Reiwa is focus on those properties provided by real estate agencies. While SQM includes the entire market.

The likely outcome is vacancy rates are some where in between Reiwa and SQM.

From my own personnel view point with my investments it is not hard to get renters. My rents have remained unchanged now for over a year, good tenants, no issues at present. That is across multiple properties in different suburbs. I am just not seeing any falls in rents in the suburbs of Perth.

Inner city yes, that is where the most vacancies are and had the highest rents. Targeted at high paid executives in the mining sector and their companies. That area is certainly being affected.

The median rent for houses is still $460 per week.
Blondie girl
5 Sep 2014, 01:59 PM
SQM stats, the rest you might as well do a lucky dip.



Mike you seem to concentrate your investments heavily on new builds, you don't seem to get involved in older properties at all?

Wht about your Ips over East, are they all relatively new properties ? otherwise you would be in a pickle with the costs/expenses of maintenance & repairs & get ripped off by tradies that the agency would select.

I have concentrated on new builds over the last 4-5 years. Prior to this I did also buy older properties.

In Melbourne I have a mate who operates a handyman business with his 2 sons who I have known since they were little kids. They take care of any repairs or renovations for well below what a real estate agent maintenance person will charge. I always keep my properties repaired and well maintained. A little bit spent now saves a lot down the road, plus keeps tenants happy.

Part of the reason I build new is to refresh my portfolio. When I complete a development depending on market conditions I decide to either rent them, sell them or a combination of both. Most of the time I keep 1-2 sell the rest, then I will also off load an older property which has had substantial capital gains. Not all at the same time as I have to work out the best way to minimise capital gains tax with the depreciation of the new builds.

A good trick is to keep the new builds recently completed, sell an older property so the depreciation of all those newly finished properties can be used to help offset capital gains from selling a property I have held for a longer time. Once the new financial year kicks over, I can sell some of the newly built properties who's capital gains are smaller and can be offset with other depreciations from the rest of my portfolio over the next financial year.

Timing and careful planning are everything.
Edited by Mike, 5 Sep 2014, 02:21 PM.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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Jimbo
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Mike
5 Sep 2014, 02:10 PM
You were the one who focused on Reiwa, if you don't like Reiwa use SQM or another data provider.

You were the one who quoted REIWA, not me.

You claimed that vacancies were falling and I asked you twice for a source.

You eventually told me it was REIWA. However, you decided not to quote the REIWA vacancy rate at 3.8%.

Quote:
 
Ok lets use SQM, that shows Perth has a vacancy rate of 2.5%, well below the 3% level which signals a balanced market. 2.5% is still considered a tight market.

If you are saying that REIWA shows falling vacancies, then you must accept that REIWA's vacancy rate is also correct. So if 2.5% is "way below" the 3% level considered a balanced market, then isn't 3.8% way above? (being that .5 is smaller than .8).

As for SQM, in one suburb I know there were 53 properties listed on 31/7/2014 on both REIWA and Realestate.com.au.

I know for certain that 42 of these were vacant, because all of them have advertised home opens since 31/7/2014.
SQM quote a vacancy total of 18 properties for that some month (it hasn't been anywhere near 18 for over two years).

So it looks like SQM talk a crock of shit as well (unless the RE have fed them shit info on purpose).

Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Mike
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Jimbo
5 Sep 2014, 03:01 PM




Quote:
 
You were the one who quoted REIWA, not me.

You claimed that vacancies were falling and I asked you twice for a source.

You eventually told me it was REIWA. However, you decided not to quote the REIWA vacancy rate at 3.8%.


Do I need to state the obvious to you. You may have asked twice but I was not on the forums so how could I respond when I have not read it yet. Unlike yourself I have a life and very busy.

Quote:
 
If you are saying that REIWA shows falling vacancies, then you must accept that REIWA's vacancy rate is also correct. So if 2.5% is "way below" the 3% level considered a balanced market, then isn't 3.8% way above? (being that .5 is smaller than .8).


Can you not read!!! I said the likely figure is some where in between Reiwa, SQM and other data sources. No one has the holy grail.

Quote:
 
As for SQM, in one suburb I know there were 53 properties listed on 31/7/2014 on both REIWA and Realestate.com.au.

I know for certain that 42 of these were vacant, because all of them have advertised home opens since 31/7/2014.
SQM quote a vacancy total of 18 properties for that some month (it hasn't been anywhere near 18 for over two years).

So it looks like SQM talk a crock of shit as well (unless the RE have fed them shit info on purpose).


Only in you're opinion.

For us who have been here along time this is a normal patter, once data does not indicate what you want Bears change to other sources.

So now you wont use any source as it does not show what you want it to show.

Just look at things as they stand. Yes vacancy rates have increased from a very low level over the past year. Yes rents have fallen very slightly after rising at 20% per year for 18 months.

Data for right now shows the vacancy rate falling, rentals on market falling, properties for sale falling. This may change or it may be the start of a new trend as we enter spring/summer, you do like trends when it suits you're view point.



http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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newjez
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Veritas
5 Sep 2014, 01:22 PM
As a recent convert to Skamenomics, I am tipping that rising supply on the market, an increasing vacancy rate, deteriorating economic fundamentals, a falling net migration rate and falling consumer confidence all point to an increase in house prices.
If only we could export skametheory to other areas such as medicine, education, food production. What a wonderful world it would be.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Jimbo
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Mike
5 Sep 2014, 03:11 PM
Do I need to state the obvious to you. You may have asked twice but I was not on the forums so how could I respond when I have not read it yet. Unlike yourself I have a life and very busy.

For us who have been here along time this is a normal patter, once data does not indicate what you want Bears change to other sources.


You were the one claiming falling vacancy rates. You brought the subject up. FYI, I am off to Seoul in three weeks time for a month (work). Not as sad as you think.

You were the one trying to paint a rosy picture of increasing construction, lack of supply in the mid range market, money washing around all over the place and a strong vacancy rate.

You made three or four six posts after I asked you for your data source.

It seems that you deliberately avoided the question.

Then when you admitted it was REIWA that showed a falling vacancy rate, you still decided to quote the SQM vacancy rate of 2.5% (from six weeks ago) because it better supported your argument.

Quote:
 
For us who have been here along time this is a normal patter, once data does not indicate what you want Bears change to other sources.


You are the one cherry picking data to suit your argument Mike. You are the one who quoted REIWA for the fall in vacancy numbers and SQM for the rate because SQM's 2.5% sounds so much better than REIWA's 3.8%.

You are the one making wild claims in a thread you started to make it look like we are on the verge of some major property boom in WA.

You are full of the brown stuff.





Edited by Jimbo, 5 Sep 2014, 04:09 PM.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Mike
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Jimbo
5 Sep 2014, 03:52 PM


Quote:
 
You were the one claiming falling vacancy rates. You brought the subject up. FYI, I am off to Seoul in three weeks time for a month (work). Not as sad as you think.


I am not claiming anything. Reiwa claims the vacancy rate is falling and its data reflects this. If you have an issue with Reiwa take it up with them. I have also pointed out SQM have a vacancy rate of 2.5%. You dont like either so now you invent you're own source of data, that is you're choice.

Good enjoy your trip to Seoul.

Quote:
 
You were the one trying to paint a rosy picture of increasing construction, lack of supply in the mid range market, money washing around all over the place and a strong vacancy rate.


I am not painting a rosy picture of increasing construction, the data speaks for itself. Building approvals up 23% from June to July. I never said strong vacancy rate. I have pointed out rental stock has been falling over the last month, so has properties for sale. I stated SQM have a vacancy rate of 2.5% and the true figure is likely some where in between Reiwa's and SQM rate. Is that not reasonable. A balanced market is considered 3% vacancy rate.

I am sure you just post for the sake or argument.

Quote:
 
You made three or four six posts after I asked you for your data source.

You post so often I dont read half your comments until later, I do like to read other peoples thoughts. You simply repeat yourself over and over again.

Quote:
 
It seems that you deliberately avoided the question.

Only when you ask stupid questions, data is for everyone to see. You only wanted me to state it so then you can roll out the vested interest slogan. Im sure when or if Reiwa data supports you're view point you will be quick to use this vested interest data indice.

Quote:
 
Then when you admitted it was REIWA that showed a falling vacancy rate, you still decided to quote the SQM vacancy rate of 2.5% (from six weeks ago) because it better supported your argument.

No I use both and many more. I dont mind using lots of sources of data as it gives the biggest picture. What you would have us believe is your searches on Realestate.com.au are more accurate then other data indicies. That dosnt fly with me. My own personel observations do not see what you are trying to convince us of, so thats how I know you are wrong to focused on just a few suburbs rather then the larger market.

It is you're opinion, it is not fact.

In a few months we will know who is right. I am confident of my stated position.

Quote:
 
You are the one cherry picking data to suit your argument Mike. You are the one who quoted REIWA for the fall in vacancy numbers and SQM for the rate because SQM's 2.5% sounds so much better than REIWA's 3.8%.


The data is what is, no cherry picking. I use both and happy to do so wether it supports my view or not unlike yourself who now invents you're own source of data superior to all others in your mind.

Quote:
 
You are the one making wild claims in a thread you started to make it look like we are on the verge of some major property boom in WA.


When did I talk about a Major Property Boom, This thread talks about a construction boom which may increase prices or it may increase supply and depress prices. What is you're issue. Building approvals are up 23% in one month, that is a boom in anyone's book. If property prices went up 23% in one month you would certainly call that boom, would you not.

Quote:
 
You are full of the brown stuff.

You sound desperate to try and talk down any positives in the market, Perphas you sold out of the market to earlier, Perhaps prices will rise and you will need to buy in at a higher price point. Maybe you will be right and prices will fall. I disagree with you're point of view. How dare I.
Edited by Mike, 5 Sep 2014, 06:32 PM.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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skamy
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Jimbo
5 Sep 2014, 12:15 PM
Mike,

You are reverting to type again (being a total twat).

I have never said that I use REIWA rental vacancy numbers?

I never trust vested interest data. I look at many sources.

As for agents not removing listings from realestate.com.au, I am not bloody stupid. I know there are delays but the fact is the total number of listings has been trending up.

Meanwhile, what is the basis for the REIWA vacancy rate?

Whatever you say about balanced markets Mike, there are close to 6000 properties available for rent, up from around 4000 this time last year. The exact REIWA number increase is 1964 more properties than a year ago.

1964 more empty rentals, in an environment of falling migration levels and increased building activity.

How exactly do you see this level falling?




Why use SQM? I thought you were looking at REIWA numbers? Their website states a 3.8% vacancy rate which according to your own words is above what is considered a balanced market.


In a city of 1.7million people this is a small number of vacancies. At 4000 the prices of rentals was soaring, they wont collapse at 6000. If it reached above 10000 maybe there would be a problem, but the signs are that they are dropping again as residential construction kicks off.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Jimbo
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Mike
5 Sep 2014, 06:14 PM
When did I talk about a Major Property Boom, This thread talks about a construction boom which may increase prices or it may increase supply and depress prices. What is you're issue. Building approvals are up 23% in one month, that is a boom in anyone's book. If property prices went up 23% in one month you would certainly call that boom, would you not.



Mike,

Your agenda is pretty clear.

You are trying to create the impression that the Perth property market is on the verge of an upswing and that anyone who doesn't buy now will be missing out.

You have created the persona of a young and successful property developer with his fingers on the market pulse ready to make his next million. Because you are such a nice guy, you are sharing that info with the general public so that they can get rich too.

You try and validate yourself by putting a link to your economics blog a the foot of your posts.

But (unfortunately for you), you keep tripping yourself up.

You claim I am sad because I have posted a lot for the last month, but you have been on here for years?

Years and years of posting the same shit, trying to spruik up the value of the investment property you bought for too much money at the wrong time because you thought that you would get rich quick.

Mike, you have been outed a million times on here. Maybe you should just give up.


skamy
5 Sep 2014, 07:32 PM
At 4000 the prices of rentals was soaring, they wont collapse at 6000. If it reached above 10000 maybe there would be a problem, but the signs are that they are dropping again as residential construction kicks off.
Right, so according to you, building more houses reduces supply?

If you say so!
Edited by Jimbo, 5 Sep 2014, 07:43 PM.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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skamy
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Veritas
5 Sep 2014, 01:22 PM
As a recent convert to Skamenomics, I am tipping that rising supply on the market, an increasing vacancy rate, deteriorating economic fundamentals, a falling net migration rate and falling consumer confidence all point to an increase in house prices.
:D

Aww Veritas you have got mixed up again, if all these things really happened outside your imagination you may get a stagnant market. Much much more would be needed to see prices drop from the current low prices still mostly below 2007 prices.


However, thankfully vacancy rates are no longer falling, there is not any significant increase in stock on the market in fact it is a bit below trend for coming out of winter. Growth in population whether large or small puts upward pressure on house prices, you need a fall in population to see downward pressure.

What are you talking about consumer confidence rose.
Consumer confidence on the up
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Jimbo
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skamy
5 Sep 2014, 07:51 PM
Growth in population whether large or small puts upward pressure on house prices, you need a fall in population to see downward pressure.

Or you need an increase in dwelling supply.

The very thing that will save your property empire from the effects of the demise of the mining infrastructure boom is your much touted residential construction boom.

Which will increase residential supply.

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Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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