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Perth Construction Boom
Topic Started: 4 Sep 2014, 10:01 AM (9,616 Views)
Mike
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Jimbo
4 Sep 2014, 11:25 PM
Where do you get this data from? (I asked this earlier and you haven't responded?)

I see rising vacancies across the whole of Perth?

SQM shows a vacancy rate of 2.5% and vacancies just below 5000 at the end of July.

A simple search on realestate.com.au (for greater perth) shows 6654 vacancies (this number has been climbing consistently for two months). http://www.realestate.com.au/rent/in-perth+-+greater+region,+wa/list-1?activeSort=suburb&includeSurrounding=false

Why do you think Rudds building boom contributed to house price increases? Could it not have been other factors pushing up prices?

To say that building more houses will cause price rises in an environment of reducing capex, migration and state revenues, is counter intuitive.

I don't get it.

Ok so you have changed from quoting REIWA to other sources as REIWA shows declines in both areas over the past month.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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Jimbo
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cintamami
5 Sep 2014, 12:01 AM
However, as a 1st home owner to be, at the moment, land is just selling like hot cakes. I kinda agree with Mike, you buy when you can afford to, don't go borrowing to your limit, assume 8-10% interest rate, and whether you will still be able to afford it then. Then close your books.

Your numbers can look a bit better, if you were to, rent your newly build property out after 6 months, you have massive depreciation and you rent somewhere cheaper than $460/WK. I know you can, with all these apartment in CBD empty, just dont go after the shiny ones, if you cant find any, then find the next best suburbs, vic park / mt lawley, basically just find one.

Basically as a rule, if you want to buy a house and you can afford it, buy.

Don't buy the house you are going to live in as an investment. Don't look at prices after you have bought because whether they go up to the moon or crash to the floor, it will make no difference to you. You will still own the house.

Buying a house and then renting it out whilst you live in a cheaper rental is a pretty dumb plan though.

If you get $450 a week for your place and rent somewhere for $350, you are going to an awful lot of hassle for less than $100 a week. Plus, rentals are getting cheaper because the rental market is slackening. How can you be sure that you could rent your place out at all?

If you want to buy and you are secure in your job and you can afford it, go ahead and buy.

You don't continue catch the bus waiting for the price of cars to drop. Then again, you don't treat your car as an investment either.

There is no get rich quick free money with housing investment.


Mike
5 Sep 2014, 12:19 AM
Ok so you have changed from quoting REIWA to other sources as REIWA shows declines in both areas over the past month.
I look at all the data and I see no decrease in rental vacancies?

I see the opposite.

So where are you getting your information from?

I call BS.

Edit: Yes, REIWA shows a drop of 2.03% or 122 available properties in the last four weeks. Down from 6015 to 5893.

So we have a drop in REIWA numbers of 2.03% in the last month but still up 33.33% on last year.

Meanwhile realestate.com.au listings show 6654

Maybe fewer people are listing with REIWA?
Edited by Jimbo, 5 Sep 2014, 12:44 AM.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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goldbug
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Jimbo
4 Sep 2014, 11:25 PM
Mike
4 Sep 2014, 10:51 PM
Rental stock has been falling the last month.

Where do you get this data from?



Come on Mike, you have been asked several times. Put up or shut up.
Shadow was hopelessly wrong about the Gold Bull Market.
What else is he wrong about?
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Jimbo
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goldbug
5 Sep 2014, 07:22 AM
Come on Mike, you have been asked several times. Put up or shut up.
He gets this from REIWA (on their homepage).

Now, not wishing to accuse REIWA of deliberately lying or anything, but there is no explanation for their number. Is it just the rentals listed with REIWA on their website, what do they class as Perth?

So Mike is looking at a number supplied by the biggest vested interest group in WA and then quoting it as being gospel on this site.

However, my own method for checking the vacancy rate is to conduct the following search

http://www.realestate.com.au/rent/in-perth+-+greater+region%2c+wa%3b+/list-1?includeSurrounding=false&persistIncludeSurrounding=true&source=location-search

Over the last two months, the number of available rentals has been trending higher.

Even if you take REIWA figures seriously, there are only 2% fewer rental listings than a month ago but listings are up a whopping 33.33% on the same time last year.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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newjez
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Jimbo
5 Sep 2014, 09:53 AM
He gets this from REIWA (on their homepage).

Now, not wishing to accuse REIWA of deliberately lying or anything, but there is no explanation for their number. Is it just the rentals listed with REIWA on their website, what do they class as Perth?

So Mike is looking at a number supplied by the biggest vested interest group in WA and then quoting it as being gospel on this site.

However, my own method for checking the vacancy rate is to conduct the following search

http://www.realestate.com.au/rent/in-perth+-+greater+region%2c+wa%3b+/list-1?includeSurrounding=false&persistIncludeSurrounding=true&source=location-search

Over the last two months, the number of available rentals has been trending higher.

Even if you take REIWA figures seriously, there are only 2% fewer rental listings than a month ago but listings are up a whopping 33.33% on the same time last year.
I think Mike's too busy hunting down a calculator to answer.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Mike
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goldbug
5 Sep 2014, 07:22 AM
Come on Mike, you have been asked several times. Put up or shut up.
Jimbo used to use Reiwa, now Reiwa shows declines in the rental vacancy rate, declines in rental stock and properties for sale. He does not quote them anymore. Why? Suddenly vest interest but he did not care when it supported his view point.

Ok lets use SQM, that shows Perth has a vacancy rate of 2.5%, well below the 3% level which signals a balanced market. 2.5% is still considered a tight market.

Now Jimbo resorts to his own invented method which is fine, but anyone who has used Realestate.com.au to rent out investment properites now they do not take down rented properties straight away. At times it can take weeks for leased properties to be removed from realestate.com.au or updated to show it is now leased. Jimbo method lacks accuracy, so it may be good for himself but is worthless to the rest of us.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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Jimbo
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Mike
5 Sep 2014, 11:45 AM
Jimbo used to use Reiwa, now Reiwa shows declines in the rental vacancy rate, declines in rental stock and properties for sale. He does not quote them anymore. Why? Suddenly vest interest but he did not care when it supported his view point.

Ok lets use SQM, that shows Perth has a vacancy rate of 2.5%, well below the 3% level which signals a balanced market. 2.5% is still considered a tight market.

Now Jimbo resorts to his own invented method which is fine, but anyone who has used Realestate.com.au to rent out investment properites now they do not take down rented properties straight away. At times it can take weeks for leased properties to be removed from realestate.com.au or updated to show it is now leased. Jimbo method lacks accuracy, so it may be good for himself but is worthless to the rest of us.
Mike,

You are reverting to type again (being a total twat).

I have never said that I use REIWA rental vacancy numbers?

I never trust vested interest data. I look at many sources.

As for agents not removing listings from realestate.com.au, I am not bloody stupid. I know there are delays but the fact is the total number of listings has been trending up.

Meanwhile, what is the basis for the REIWA vacancy rate?

Whatever you say about balanced markets Mike, there are close to 6000 properties available for rent, up from around 4000 this time last year. The exact REIWA number increase is 1964 more properties than a year ago.

1964 more empty rentals, in an environment of falling migration levels and increased building activity.

How exactly do you see this level falling?

Quote:
 
Ok lets use SQM, that shows Perth has a vacancy rate of 2.5%, well below the 3% level which signals a balanced market. 2.5% is still considered a tight market.


Why use SQM? I thought you were looking at REIWA numbers? Their website states a 3.8% vacancy rate which according to your own words is above what is considered a balanced market.



Edited by Jimbo, 5 Sep 2014, 12:25 PM.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Elastic
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REIWA are playing funny buggers the last couple of months. Dropped their vacancy rate from 4.1 to 3.8% after the rental numbers fell by 100. No explanation offered.

Rent prices are now returning to where they were 5 years ago before the rental shortage with potential to fall further if all this construction continues.

SQM asking rents Perth

I'm tipping house prices in Perth to be down 0-5% over the next year as measured by RPData.
Edited by Elastic, 5 Sep 2014, 01:11 PM.
Only a rat can win a rat race.

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Veritas
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Elastic
5 Sep 2014, 01:11 PM
REIWA are playing funny buggers the last couple of months. Dropped their vacancy rate from 4.1 to 3.8% after the rental numbers fell by 100. No explanation offered.

Rent prices are now returning to where they were 5 years ago before the rental shortage with potential to fall further if all this construction continues.

SQM asking rents Perth

I'm tipping house prices in Perth to be down 0-5% over the next year as measured by RPData.
As a recent convert to Skamenomics, I am tipping that rising supply on the market, an increasing vacancy rate, deteriorating economic fundamentals, a falling net migration rate and falling consumer confidence all point to an increase in house prices.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Blondie girl
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SQM stats, the rest you might as well do a lucky dip.



Mike you seem to concentrate your investments heavily on new builds, you don't seem to get involved in older properties at all?

Wht about your Ips over East, are they all relatively new properties ? otherwise you would be in a pickle with the costs/expenses of maintenance & repairs & get ripped off by tradies that the agency would select.

Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$
It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged
Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do.
Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
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