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The Billionaires Are All Quietly Preparing For The Plunge
Topic Started: 4 Sep 2014, 08:03 AM (2,733 Views)
miw
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szokolay
5 Sep 2014, 12:04 AM
You don't think they might have an inside edge? You believe you have the same access to market information as them? That's very conceited you know. These people lunch with members of the federal reserve board, with to ranking politicians. Their actions make and break markets. In other words they sell at the top and buy at the bottom.
Nope. They don't know what will happen any more than I do. They are miles better than I am at taking advantage of a few points of arbitrage. They can also move markets for a couple of days by getting on CNBC and talking their book. Zell in particular takes advantage of access to investment types that I cannot access. And I am sure they are much smarter than I am.

On the other hand I can close out every position I have and open new ones in about 5 minutes while it might take them months, , and I can guarantee you I knew today's ADP jobs report result less than a minute after they did.

Or you could just look at their hedge fund performance (except for Zell who only invests his own money these days)

Soros Fund Management Jul 1 2013 to Jun 30 2014 performance: +4.45%
Icahn Capital LP Jul 1 2013 to Jun 30 2014 performance: +4.63%
S&P 500 total return Jul 1 2013 to Jun 30 2014 performance: +24.2%
miw portfolio Jul 1 2013 to Jun 30 2014 performance: +29.23%

Now managing a a fund worth tens of billions is certainly harder than managing a portfolio worth less than a million, but if they knew what was going to happen, you would think their hedge funds would do better than that.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
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goldbug
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Bullshit miw. The big players know about the fed moves long before they are published. Who do think owns the fed, the girl guides and the boy scouts? It's stock is held by the major banks who deal with the big players. Of course their is an elite group of men manipulating and profiting off of the equity markets, it's why they have reached all time highs, " The working group on Capital Markets" that's part of the insider system. It's common knowledge. But not to you it seems.

It's easy to push up the dow, it's only 30 stocks. You push it up up up and then sell out at the top. Who do you sell it all to? US pension funds would be one bulk buyer, funds whose officers are more than happy to take the direction of their friends the ubber rich.

It's called corruption miw, and it happens at all levels of society. Just look around at what is being exposed in the news and that's just the tip of the iceberg. I and a lot of friends sold oit of stocks in 2005 and never looked back. I wouldn't touch them again until there is a 1933 style crash and the dust settles. If I was an insider I would have bought in 2009 but I'm not so I have to follow the big trends and the big trend is deflation.
Shadow was hopelessly wrong about the Gold Bull Market.
What else is he wrong about?
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peter fraser
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goldbug
5 Sep 2014, 07:35 AM
Bullshit miw. The big players know about the fed moves long before they are published. Who do think owns the fed, the girl guides and the boy scouts? It's stock is held by the major banks who deal with the big players. Of course their is an elite group of men manipulating and profiting off of the equity markets, it's why they have reached all time highs, " The working group on Capital Markets" that's part of the insider system. It's common knowledge. But not to you it seems.

It's easy to push up the dow, it's only 30 stocks. You push it up up up and then sell out at the top. Who do you sell it all to? US pension funds would be one bulk buyer, funds whose officers are more than happy to take the direction of their friends the ubber rich.

It's called corruption miw, and it happens at all levels of society. Just look around at what is being exposed in the news and that's just the tip of the iceberg. I and a lot of friends sold oit of stocks in 2005 and never looked back. I wouldn't touch them again until there is a 1933 style crash and the dust settles. If I was an insider I would have bought in 2009 but I'm not so I have to follow the big trends and the big trend is deflation.
I wouldn't take that much notice of Sam Zell either, he is pro republican and if you read his words it's really a shot at Obama. Most Billionaires have strong political affiliations. Politics becomes part of their business interests.

I rather like Soros but still I think these guys aren't going to give us any free inside information. I'd take their advice with a grain of salt. They could change their mind tomorrow but they won't come back and tell us that.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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newjez
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miw
4 Sep 2014, 08:14 PM
Ah yes. Zerohedge. If you listen to them, you will always do nothing so what use are they?

The fact is if you weren't fully invested in August, then you missed out big time. I had a 5.28% month. And if you listened to Zerohedge you would have been in cash in August and earned 0.1%.

This earnings season has been the best since the GFC. Over 70% of companies beat on earnings and almost nobody missed. This despite the fact that analysts on average only guided down by 3.5% in the run-up, whereas they have been guiding down by about 7-8% on average lately. Revenues have also been very good as well.

What will happen in September? I don't know and neither do Icahn, Soros and Zell.
Be careful where you are standing when Scotland says yes. That and Ukraine and Iraq could make Sept a volatile month. I'm thinking of taking a Euro position.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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A Lurker
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At all times billionaires are quietly preparing for the plunge. Except maybe ones that make their money from casinos and the like (although even they have multi-hundred acre bolt holes and other property assets that are likely quarantined from the business assets).
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miw
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goldbug
5 Sep 2014, 07:35 AM
Bullshit miw. The big players know about the fed moves long before they are published. Who do think owns the fed, the girl guides and the boy scouts? It's stock is held by the major banks who deal with the big players. Of course their is an elite group of men manipulating and profiting off of the equity markets, it's why they have reached all time highs, " The working group on Capital Markets" that's part of the insider system. It's common knowledge. But not to you it seems.

It's easy to push up the dow, it's only 30 stocks. You push it up up up and then sell out at the top. Who do you sell it all to? US pension funds would be one bulk buyer, funds whose officers are more than happy to take the direction of their friends the ubber rich.

It's called corruption miw, and it happens at all levels of society. Just look around at what is being exposed in the news and that's just the tip of the iceberg. I and a lot of friends sold oit of stocks in 2005 and never looked back. I wouldn't touch them again until there is a 1933 style crash and the dust settles. If I was an insider I would have bought in 2009 but I'm not so I have to follow the big trends and the big trend is deflation.
So tell me why their investments are underperforming the S&P by 20 points. If I knew what was going to happen before it happened, even by one day, I could at least outperform the S&P.

The fact that you even mention the Dow shows you up as a clue-free zone.
peter fraser
5 Sep 2014, 08:22 AM
I rather like Soros but still I think these guys aren't going to give us any free inside information. I'd take their advice with a grain of salt. They could change their mind tomorrow but they won't come back and tell us that.
Indeed. Even if Soros and Icahn knew what was going to happen, they wouldn't be coming onto CNBC to tell anyone. The only reason we know anything about what they do is that they are legally required to report on a quarterly basis.

The opinion they give is what they want you to think they are thinking, which may well be 180 degrees opposed to what they are actually thinking.
A Lurker
5 Sep 2014, 10:15 AM
At all times billionaires are quietly preparing for the plunge. Except maybe ones that make their money from casinos and the like (although even they have multi-hundred acre bolt holes and other property assets that are likely quarantined from the business assets).
+1
newjez
5 Sep 2014, 10:07 AM
Be careful where you are standing when Scotland says yes. That and Ukraine and Iraq could make Sept a volatile month. I'm thinking of taking a Euro position.
I think I would welcome a little volatility.
Edited by miw, 5 Sep 2014, 02:52 PM.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
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Sydneyite
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miw
5 Sep 2014, 12:41 AM
Soros Fund Management Jul 1 2013 to Jun 30 2014 performance: +4.45%
Icahn Capital LP Jul 1 2013 to Jun 30 2014 performance: +4.63%
S&P 500 total return Jul 1 2013 to Jun 30 2014 performance: +24.2%
miw portfolio Jul 1 2013 to Jun 30 2014 performance: +29.23%
You have done really well! Here's my FY14 results:

Sydneyite share portfolio 1: + 18.09% (after tax and all costs)
Sydneyite share portfolio 2: +16.34% (after tax and all costs)
Sydneyite super fund: +13.9% return (mostly managed growth/balanced fund option + some specific share funds for a portion of it)

And then my house has probably gone up in value by a good 20% or more as well.

I'm assuming you had a lot of US/S&P 500 exposure? I'm heavily weighted to the local AU market right now. And you are right about August - it was a good month with 5%+ returns + a bunch of fat incoming dividends from the local AU market.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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Sydneyite
6 Sep 2014, 04:32 PM
You have done really well! Here's my FY14 results:

Sydneyite share portfolio 1: + 18.09% (after tax and all costs)
Sydneyite share portfolio 2: +16.34% (after tax and all costs)
Sydneyite super fund: +13.9% return (mostly managed growth/balanced fund option + some specific share funds for a portion of it)

And then my house has probably gone up in value by a good 20% or more as well.

I'm assuming you had a lot of US/S&P 500 exposure? I'm heavily weighted to the local AU market right now. And you are right about August - it was a good month with 5%+ returns + a bunch of fat incoming dividends from the local AU market.
How does it go against those stocks I mentioned two months ago.

Up 20%, up 50% and up 100%.

Noticed you not been back since.
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Sydneyite
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6 Sep 2014, 05:35 PM
How does it go against those stocks I mentioned two months ago.

Up 20%, up 50% and up 100%.

Noticed you not been back since.
What stocks? Which thread? Did you tell us about these amazing stocks and how you bought them *before* their prices went up? And who are you anyway??? Are you Crazy Ted?

My portfolio's are not actively traded - they are long term and designed to provide long term capital growth and growing passive income. Ie a good risk adjusted return. But you likely do not even know what any of that means. :re:
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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miw
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Sydneyite
6 Sep 2014, 04:32 PM
I'm assuming you had a lot of US/S&P 500 exposure? I'm heavily weighted to the local AU market right now. And you are right about August - it was a good month with 5%+ returns + a bunch of fat incoming dividends from the local AU market.
Yeah. Almost all S&P exposure. I didn't mention my return for 2012/3 because it was very embarassing though. Even worse that Icahn and Soros. Basically lost as much money through hedges as I made through stocks.

I made a root and branch change to my strategy in April of 2013 and my results started changing almost immediately.

5% months are few and far between. Enjoy them when you get them. I include dividends in my returns, but get far less of them than I would if I was in the oz market.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
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