Icahn, Soros, Druckenmiller, And Now Zell: The Billionaires Are All Quietly Preparing For The Plunge
."The stock market is at an all-time, but economic activity is not at an all-time," explains billionaire investor Sam Zell to CNBC this morning, adding that, "every company that's missed has missed on the revenue side, which is a reflection that there's a demand issue; and when you got a demand issue it's hard to imagine the stock market at an all-time high." Zell said he is being very cautious adding to stocks and cutting some positions because "I don't remember any time in my career where there have been as many wildcards floating out there that have the potential to be very significant and alter people's thinking." Zell also discussed his view on Obama's Fed encouraging disparity and on tax inversions, but concludes, rather ominously, "this is the first time I ever remember where having cash isn't such a terrible thing." Zell's calls should not be shocking following George Soros. Stan Druckenmiller, and Carl Icahn's warnings that there is trouble ahead.
Billionaire 1: Sam Zell
On Stocks and reality...
"People have no place else to put their money, and the stock market is getting more than its share. It's very likely that something has to give here."
"I don't remember any time in my career where there have been as many wildcards floating out there that have the potential to be very significant and alter people's thinking," he said. "If there's a change in confidence or some international event that changes the dynamics, people could in effect take a different position with reference to the market."
"It's almost every company that's missed has missed on the revenue side, which is a reflection that there's a demand issue," he said. "When you got a demand issue it's hard to imagine the stock market at an all-time high."
He also lamented about how difficult it is to call a market top. "If you're wrong on when, that's a problem." His answer: "You got to tiptoe ... and find the right balance."
Ah yes. Zerohedge. If you listen to them, you will always do nothing so what use are they?
The fact is if you weren't fully invested in August, then you missed out big time. I had a 5.28% month. And if you listened to Zerohedge you would have been in cash in August and earned 0.1%.
This earnings season has been the best since the GFC. Over 70% of companies beat on earnings and almost nobody missed. This despite the fact that analysts on average only guided down by 3.5% in the run-up, whereas they have been guiding down by about 7-8% on average lately. Revenues have also been very good as well.
What will happen in September? I don't know and neither do Icahn, Soros and Zell.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off. --Gloria Steinem AREPS™
This earnings season has been the best since the GFC. Over 70% of companies beat on earnings and almost nobody missed. This despite the fact that analysts on average only guided down by 3.5% in the run-up, whereas they have been guiding down by about 7-8% on average lately. Revenues have also been very good as well.
They beat on EPS through share buybacks, but I can't find many that beat on topline revenue. In fact, a quick perusal of bellweathers like Walmart shows topline misses. If you have information to the contrary I would be interested to see it.
------------------------------ " ... which is that all-too-familiar dynamic in Irish life where people tell lies, cover them up and create all sorts of collateral damage, sometimes spread out over decades, and never take responsibility." - Alan Glynn
They beat on EPS through share buybacks, but I can't find many that beat on topline revenue. In fact, a quick perusal of bellweathers like Walmart shows topline misses. If you have information to the contrary I would be interested to see it.
I've been trying to find a collation for topline, but can't. I'm just going by my feel on the alerts that have been passing by my email at the rate of dozens per day, an that feel is that topline misses have been far fewer than in the last 6 quarters or so and topline beats have been more frequent. If I find a collation I will share it.
That said, topline beats have been fairly rare over the past 6 quarters. Lots of EPS through buybacks etc as you say. This quarter has a very different feel about it, but it is just a feel at the moment. I did see the other day that corporate profits (which is not impacted by buybacks) are up 6% YoY this quarter. That's a pretty good result.
But my main point is that Zerohedge is a total waste of time because all they ever say is sell. No actionable input forthcoming. Also, every time I go behind one of their articles I find that they are twisting the facts. I have no time for them.
I do read Hussman from time to time when I get to be feeling too exuberant. He writes really well and brings up good, well-researched points. But he has done nothing but lose money for his fund holders lately. I am well more than 30% ahead of where I was when I first started reading him, so when the 40% crash comes, as it inevitably will, if it catches me out fully, which it might or might not, I will still probably be ahead of where I would have been if I listened to his doom talk and stayed in cash and even further ahead of where I would be if I bought into his fund.
Ah yes. Zerohedge. If you listen to them, you will always do nothing so what use are they?
Zero hedge as an entity do not take a position on the markets. It is up to the individual reader to decide which posters are doomsters and who provides decent information.
I read the FT, Zero Hedge, Bloomberg and a multitude of other financials.
There is no such thing as too much information.
Meanwhile, I am out of stocks after a good few years of decent gains (much better than property).
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
I've been trying to find a collation for topline, but can't. I'm just going by my feel on the alerts that have been passing by my email at the rate of dozens per day, an that feel is that topline misses have been far fewer than in the last 6 quarters or so and topline beats have been more frequent. If I find a collation I will share it.
That said, topline beats have been fairly rare over the past 6 quarters. Lots of EPS through buybacks etc as you say. This quarter has a very different feel about it, but it is just a feel at the moment. I did see the other day that corporate profits (which is not impacted by buybacks) are up 6% YoY this quarter. That's a pretty good result.
But my main point is that Zerohedge is a total waste of time because all they ever say is sell. No actionable input forthcoming. Also, every time I go behind one of their articles I find that they are twisting the facts. I have no time for them.
I do read Hussman from time to time when I get to be feeling too exuberant. He writes really well and brings up good, well-researched points. But he has done nothing but lose money for his fund holders lately.
If you do find a collation, thanks in advance for sharing.
Rising profits doesn't surprise me at all. When interest rates are this low it is cheaper to buy a robot than hire a human, so costs decline and profit margins rise. Doesn't bode well for income however, so interest rates will need to stay low to stimulate consumer demand. Which of course feeds back on itself. In other words, I don't believe in the Taper.
I find ZeroHedge to be like Slashdot used to be. An aggregator of other people's research and positions, but admittedly, always with a bearish slant. At least they are consistent as to which side of the trade they are on. Anyway, some ZH articles have led me to interesting reading journeys on other sites. The comments are 99% useless though.
I filter out the clickbait,political and gold articles, and just read any technical finance articles, which admittedly are becoming fewer and further apart. There used to be quite a lot of traders who posted in the comments, but these days most of the regular audience don't even know how to price a bond, so the clickbait/junk articles have been ramped up correspondingly.
------------------------------ " ... which is that all-too-familiar dynamic in Irish life where people tell lies, cover them up and create all sorts of collateral damage, sometimes spread out over decades, and never take responsibility." - Alan Glynn
I find ZeroHedge to be like Slashdot used to be. An aggregator of other people's research and positions, but admittedly, always with a bearish slant. At least they are consistent as to which side of the trade they are on. Anyway, some ZH articles have led me to interesting reading journeys on other sites. The comments are 99% useless though.
99% of what is on Zerohedge is rubbish bear porn. It is a nett loss because you could have spent that time reading something useful and a further nett loss because a substantial portion of what people post there is simply untrue. A few of the bloggers whose posts get onto zerohedge, I read on their own sites. Hussman is one example.
The odd good article that does get posted to Zerohedge will usually get picked up by the WSJ's "Train reading" column.
99% of what is on Zerohedge is rubbish bear porn. It is a nett loss because you could have spent that time reading something useful and a further nett loss because a substantial portion of what people post there is simply untrue. A few of the bloggers whose posts get onto zerohedge, I read on their own sites. Hussman is one example.
The odd good article that does get posted to Zerohedge will usually get picked up by the WSJ's "Train reading" column.
I went to ZH to find an excellent article I read recently (I usually follow the link rather than read it on site), and it was indeed written by Hussman.
I think you are right, ZH has been slashdotted.
------------------------------ " ... which is that all-too-familiar dynamic in Irish life where people tell lies, cover them up and create all sorts of collateral damage, sometimes spread out over decades, and never take responsibility." - Alan Glynn
What will happen in September? I don't know and neither do Icahn, Soros and Zell.
You don't think they might have an inside edge? You believe you have the same access to market information as them? That's very conceited you know. These people lunch with members of the federal reserve board, with to ranking politicians. Their actions make and break markets. In other words they sell at the top and buy at the bottom.
Ned Flanders
4 Sep 2014, 09:14 PM
I find ZeroHedge to be like Slashdot used to be. An aggregator of other people's research and positions, but admittedly, always with a bearish slant.
Well you must admit, the last 5 or so years have not exactly been a bull market for anything, except few isolated stocks and real estate markets. I regard zerohedge as a warning bell, it doesn't tell me where to invest, it just warns me of the pitfalls that potentially exist. Unfortunately not many people can stomach bad news these days. They want to hear positive happy stories, even if it costs them a good share of their life savings in the process.
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