Expect early stages of global collapse to appear soon - Limits to Growth was right; Sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity
30% of the worlds population growth to 10 billion is due to the 'demographic momentum', or more people living longer, not new babies. Peak population growth was 1965 and we have been reducing the growth rate since.
"The population age structure at the starting point of the projection also influences the future growth trajectory. Even with assumptions of fertility at replacement level, constant mortality, and no migration, the total population will not necessarily remain constant. Total population could either increase or decrease before reaching a stationary population size. This phenomenon is called momentum of population growth and its value is defined by the ratio of ultimate population size to current population size (Keyfitz, 1971). In the countries in the midst of demographic transit ion and with young age structures, the total population will continue to grow because births produced by a large number of females of reproductive age will exceed deaths , even if total fertility is at replacement level . In this case, population momentum has a positive effect on population growth. In the countries that completed the demographic transition and with relatively old age structures due to long periods of low fertility and population ageing, the total population will actually decline before reaching ultimate population size. In this case, population momentum has a negative effect on population growth . The population growth brought about by the population momentum can be attributed exclusively to the initial age structure of population."
You seem to struggle with understanding growth rates. The % growth rate can be slowing but the populations still increasing at a greater rate numerically.
You seem to struggle with understanding growth rates. The % growth rate can be slowing but the populations still increasing at a greater rate numerically.
Oh dear me Peter...... is that not what I have been saying. Did you actually read the UN report or have any understanding at all about the 'demographic momentum' before you let your mouth lose?
You mean I should rant and hurl abuse instead? Nope... not my style... I'll leave that to you. I prefer logic.
Quote:
Just remember who you are, a deadbead drone from the suburbs of sydney who bought into a pyramid scheme near its end and is getting left holding the empty cup
A good example of emotive ranting and hurling abuse, in lieu of actually addressing the topic.
Well I'm not sure what impact a stable or declining population will have on house prices. Probably not a good thing if you're a housing investor. But none of us will be alive to see the impact of this so its irrelevant at this point.
Don't try and argue logically shadow, it's not your strong suit. Just remember who you are, a deadbead drone from the suburbs of sydney who bought into a pyramid scheme near its end and is getting left holding the empty cup.
House prices double every 7 years (sucker) Rents always go up with inflation (chump)
Is there any point you will stop claiming we are "near the end"? what will it take. 1 more year, 5, 10? Or is it your plan to bore the entire internet to death?
Approx 30% of the worlds population growth to 10 billion is due to the 'demographic momentum', or more people living longer, not new babies. Peak population growth was 1965 and we have been reducing the growth rate since.
Indeed.
Actually, the delay in impact of changing birth and death rates if extremely hard to understand intuitively. Doing it analytically requires a fairly complex set of differential equations.
But the prime example to look at if you don't believe in the delay is China, which started to drastically limit birth rates in the early 1980s, but whose overall population will probably climb until almost 2030 - mainly because of the incredible baby boom in the 1960s. That pig in the python takes 2 generations to attenuate.
My observation of the comparison between reality and the Club of Rome report is that so far not a single inflection point predicted by the limits to growth reports has come to pass, and a couple would seem not to have happened at all.
I also take issue with their characterisation of Bjorn Lomborg as a "self-styled environmental expert". (takes out copy of "The skeptical Environmentalist" by Bjorn Lomborg). Lomborg is at pains to point out that he is a statistician and that his book is entirely devoted to critiqueing and verification of the statistics published by environmental scientists. He makes no claim whatsoever to being an environmental expert or environmental scientist, although he does say that his interest in this area of statistics arises out of the fact that he is an environmentalist and was a member of Greenpeace.
Well there is a school of economics that regards the amount of available energy as the key factor in economic growth. Our current civilization is utterly dependent on a certain level of sustained economic growth 2%-3% minimum, which seems modest but is actually extraordinarily high by historical standards.
The thing is this level of growth may in fact only be sustained by cheap fossil fuel energy, petroleum in particular. Once fossil fuels become seriously depleted, economic growth will eventually drop to zero and probably even go backwards. At that point, even if world population has stopped growing at 10 billion, this number may turn out to be far larger than can be sustained without cheap fossil fuels.
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