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Major Terrorist Attack Coming? Commercial jets missing after Islamists take over Tripoli airport; September 11, 2014 - A New Black Swan
Topic Started: 3 Sep 2014, 08:13 AM (2,795 Views)
ThePauk
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DragonGM
3 Sep 2014, 01:44 PM
Missing airlines prompt fears about a new 9/11 style attack.

http://www.news.com.au/world/africa/missing-jetliners-raise-fear-of-new-911style-attacks-after-libyan-airport-falls-to-islamic-militants/story-fnh81gzi-1227046071700

It maybe just a cold vibe that I am getting, but it seems we are on the verge of a new global event that may redefine and dwarf our current discussions.
I very much doubt it will be an attack like 911. More likely a cyber attack on NY Stock Exchange etc or biological. Something that really hits hard at the heart of capitalism.
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Mike
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DragonGM
3 Sep 2014, 01:44 PM
Missing airlines prompt fears about a new 9/11 style attack.

http://www.news.com.au/world/africa/missing-jetliners-raise-fear-of-new-911style-attacks-after-libyan-airport-falls-to-islamic-militants/story-fnh81gzi-1227046071700

It maybe just a cold vibe that I am getting, but it seems we are on the verge of a new global event that may redefine and dwarf our current discussions.
I have said this for along time, long prior to my presence on these forums.

The Middle East/North Africa and its many issues can only be resolved after a very large regional perhaps global conflict that sweeps away the old order.

People have over thrown a number of Dictators with some limited help from the West. The invasion of Iraq really set the tone in 2003. It showed just how weak Dictators can be and there weakness is hidden by the terror they use to keep the population under control. The 2003 invasion was the spark, with out Saddam falling these other events would not occur.

Some argue that keeping the dictators in power is better then instability, I disagree. In the short term yes, we have stability with dictators. In the longer term it is not. The Middle East is in desperate need of reform and modernisation of the mainstream population.

Secular states need to be formed that separate Islam from Politics.

The conflict with ISIS and other groups will morph into one large broader conflict. Borders will be erased and new nations formed that represent the populations and not arbitrary lines on a map dictated to by outside powers.

To get to this point the extremists such as ISIS need to be utterly defeated. I don't just mean a few bombs. ISIS and other groups need to be systematically rounded up in a large scale conflict and destroyed.

The problem we have in this "Modern Age" is we fight wars to limit causalities. While noble and a moral cause it is not what wins wars. If you limit causalities your enemy does not understand nor think they are defeated. You need to kill them and the supporters which means local populations that support the extremists until they give up or are wiped out. You cannot beat these guys unless you are prepared to get down to there level and do the dirty fighting and many will die.

Just as the Allied Bombed German & Japanese cities to force the populations to understand they cannot win, cities are levelled by artillery, large battles. Until the population understands support for ISIS like it was for the Nazis is not the answer. Many populations are caught between being killed by ISIS for not supporting them or being killed opposing them. It is a hard choice, but war is coming regardless of what choices people make.

I wonder what happens next if a US plane gets shot down or has a mechanical issue. ISIS lines then up on camera and beheads US service men and women, of course they rape the women first. What will be Obamas response, im sure this issue plays through his mind at night when going to bed. The US would either withdraw or double down and commit large forces to battle.

It is difficult to see how this plays out. I think nearly any opposition will rally to ISIS and fight the established powers. Battles are already occurring between ISIS or its supporters in Northern Iranian towns battling the revolutionary guard. What if ISIS defeats the revolutionary guard and towns begin to fall in Iran. The problem will spread rapidly as any group in opposition to the Mullahs will opt to join ISIS. Libyan groups over running the capital and other cities are reported to have joined ISIS.

ISIS forces and black flags have been seen in Lebanon villages close to Syria, Golan Heights close to Israel's border, South along the Jordian border and Saudi Arabia. Some Yemen Al-Qaeda groups are said to have switch to ISIS.

What if ISIS defeats Assad and most of Syria falls to them, this will spread like wild fire through out the region.

The only powers or combination of powers strong enough to stop them now is an alliance between Egypt, Saudi Arabia & Gulf States & Iran. The US can provide large scale reconnaissance and air support. I am not sure though if these nations ground forces are motivated enough to stop ISIS on the battlefield. In the end US combat troops may be needed but I don't see this happening unless Bagdad looks like falling or ISIS pushed into Saudi Arabia threaten global supply of oil and the world economy.

The situation in Ukraine could yet flare up into a full scale war drawing in Europe and the US as well.

What better time for China to make a move in Asia while the US is bogged down with ISIS and Russia. Could the US fight all 3 at once. The US may opt to fight none.


Mike
3 Sep 2014, 03:08 PM
I have said this for along time, long prior to my presence on these forums.

The Middle East/North Africa and its many issues can only be resolved after a very large regional perhaps global conflict that sweeps away the old order.

People have over thrown a number of Dictators with some limited help from the West. The invasion of Iraq really set the tone in 2003. It showed just how weak Dictators can be and there weakness is hidden by the terror they use to keep the population under control. The 2003 invasion was the spark, with out Saddam falling these other events would not occur.

Some argue that keeping the dictators in power is better then instability, I disagree. In the short term yes, we have stability with dictators. In the longer term it is not. The Middle East is in desperate need of reform and modernisation of the mainstream population.

Secular states need to be formed that separate Islam from Politics.

The conflict with ISIS and other groups will morph into one large broader conflict. Borders will be erased and new nations formed that represent the populations and not arbitrary lines on a map dictated to by outside powers.

To get to this point the extremists such as ISIS need to be utterly defeated. I don't just mean a few bombs. ISIS and other groups need to be systematically rounded up in a large scale conflict and destroyed.

The problem we have in this "Modern Age" is we fight wars to limit causalities. While noble and a moral cause it is not what wins wars. If you limit causalities your enemy does not understand nor think they are defeated. You need to kill them and the supporters which means local populations that support the extremists until they give up or are wiped out. You cannot beat these guys unless you are prepared to get down to there level and do the dirty fighting and many will die.

Just as the Allied Bombed German & Japanese cities to force the populations to understand they cannot win, cities are levelled by artillery, large battles. Until the population understands support for ISIS like it was for the Nazis is not the answer. Many populations are caught between being killed by ISIS for not supporting them or being killed opposing them. It is a hard choice, but war is coming regardless of what choices people make.

I wonder what happens next if a US plane gets shot down or has a mechanical issue. ISIS lines then up on camera and beheads US service men and women, of course they rape the women first. What will be Obamas response, im sure this issue plays through his mind at night when going to bed. The US would either withdraw or double down and commit large forces to battle.

It is difficult to see how this plays out. I think nearly any opposition will rally to ISIS and fight the established powers. Battles are already occurring between ISIS or its supporters in Northern Iranian towns battling the revolutionary guard. What if ISIS defeats the revolutionary guard and towns begin to fall in Iran. The problem will spread rapidly as any group in opposition to the Mullahs will opt to join ISIS. Libyan groups over running the capital and other cities are reported to have joined ISIS.

ISIS forces and black flags have been seen in Lebanon villages close to Syria, Golan Heights close to Israel's border, South along the Jordian border and Saudi Arabia. Some Yemen Al-Qaeda groups are said to have switch to ISIS.

What if ISIS defeats Assad and most of Syria falls to them, this will spread like wild fire through out the region.

The only powers or combination of powers strong enough to stop them now is an alliance between Egypt, Saudi Arabia & Gulf States & Iran. The US can provide large scale reconnaissance and air support. I am not sure though if these nations ground forces are motivated enough to stop ISIS on the battlefield. In the end US combat troops may be needed but I don't see this happening unless Bagdad looks like falling or ISIS pushed into Saudi Arabia threaten global supply of oil and the world economy.

The situation in Ukraine could yet flare up into a full scale war drawing in Europe and the US as well.

What better time for China to make a move in Asia while the US is bogged down with ISIS and Russia. Could the US fight all 3 at once. The US may opt to fight none.
On a side note. ISIS beheading the Journalists, now 2 of them has turned US public opinion around. The brutality or the murders has turned public opinion from being 65% against intervention in Syria last year when Obama wanted to bomb due to the chemical weapons. It is now 63% in favour of intervention in Syria after the first beheading, this will only increase now with the report of a 2nd beheading.

ISIS has made a tactical error. Once US public opinion gets behind this Congress will follow which will give Obama the political capital needed to do a large scale campaign against ISIS, frame under a humanitarian mission.

The US wont deploy large scale ground forces and it can be hard to target forces inside cities. Like the US did to the Taliban in 2001 as the Northern Alliance advanced the US hit the trenches, bombed the vehicles, hit the Taliban as they retreated from cities our into the open prior to them reaching the next city.

ISIS has advantages now with heavy weapons but they are easy targets for US airpower. ISIS will not be able to stand and fight against Iraqi, Kurds or anyone else. They will need to resort to tactics employed by insurgents during the Iraq war, however this makes it hard to hold land and keep a functioning state together.

ISIS should have kept the focus on fighting and wining land, keep the hostages for latter.

With the US involved what is does do is give a moral boost to local forces and time to organise a defence and counter attacks which we are seeing some of now.

Times are certainly interesting and dangerous.
Edited by Mike, 3 Sep 2014, 03:19 PM.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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newjez
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Mike
3 Sep 2014, 03:08 PM
I have said this for along time, long prior to my presence on these forums.

The Middle East/North Africa and its many issues can only be resolved after a very large regional perhaps global conflict that sweeps away the old order.

People have over thrown a number of Dictators with some limited help from the West. The invasion of Iraq really set the tone in 2003. It showed just how weak Dictators can be and there weakness is hidden by the terror they use to keep the population under control. The 2003 invasion was the spark, with out Saddam falling these other events would not occur.

Some argue that keeping the dictators in power is better then instability, I disagree. In the short term yes, we have stability with dictators. In the longer term it is not. The Middle East is in desperate need of reform and modernisation of the mainstream population.

Secular states need to be formed that separate Islam from Politics.

The conflict with ISIS and other groups will morph into one large broader conflict. Borders will be erased and new nations formed that represent the populations and not arbitrary lines on a map dictated to by outside powers.

To get to this point the extremists such as ISIS need to be utterly defeated. I don't just mean a few bombs. ISIS and other groups need to be systematically rounded up in a large scale conflict and destroyed.

The problem we have in this "Modern Age" is we fight wars to limit causalities. While noble and a moral cause it is not what wins wars. If you limit causalities your enemy does not understand nor think they are defeated. You need to kill them and the supporters which means local populations that support the extremists until they give up or are wiped out. You cannot beat these guys unless you are prepared to get down to there level and do the dirty fighting and many will die.

Just as the Allied Bombed German & Japanese cities to force the populations to understand they cannot win, cities are levelled by artillery, large battles. Until the population understands support for ISIS like it was for the Nazis is not the answer. Many populations are caught between being killed by ISIS for not supporting them or being killed opposing them. It is a hard choice, but war is coming regardless of what choices people make.

I wonder what happens next if a US plane gets shot down or has a mechanical issue. ISIS lines then up on camera and beheads US service men and women, of course they rape the women first. What will be Obamas response, im sure this issue plays through his mind at night when going to bed. The US would either withdraw or double down and commit large forces to battle.

It is difficult to see how this plays out. I think nearly any opposition will rally to ISIS and fight the established powers. Battles are already occurring between ISIS or its supporters in Northern Iranian towns battling the revolutionary guard. What if ISIS defeats the revolutionary guard and towns begin to fall in Iran. The problem will spread rapidly as any group in opposition to the Mullahs will opt to join ISIS. Libyan groups over running the capital and other cities are reported to have joined ISIS.

ISIS forces and black flags have been seen in Lebanon villages close to Syria, Golan Heights close to Israel's border, South along the Jordian border and Saudi Arabia. Some Yemen Al-Qaeda groups are said to have switch to ISIS.

What if ISIS defeats Assad and most of Syria falls to them, this will spread like wild fire through out the region.

The only powers or combination of powers strong enough to stop them now is an alliance between Egypt, Saudi Arabia & Gulf States & Iran. The US can provide large scale reconnaissance and air support. I am not sure though if these nations ground forces are motivated enough to stop ISIS on the battlefield. In the end US combat troops may be needed but I don't see this happening unless Bagdad looks like falling or ISIS pushed into Saudi Arabia threaten global supply of oil and the world economy.

The situation in Ukraine could yet flare up into a full scale war drawing in Europe and the US as well.

What better time for China to make a move in Asia while the US is bogged down with ISIS and Russia. Could the US fight all 3 at once. The US may opt to fight none.



On a side note. ISIS beheading the Journalists, now 2 of them has turned US public opinion around. The brutality or the murders has turned public opinion from being 65% against intervention in Syria last year when Obama wanted to bomb due to the chemical weapons. It is now 63% in favour of intervention in Syria after the first beheading, this will only increase now with the report of a 2nd beheading.

ISIS has made a tactical error. Once US public opinion gets behind this Congress will follow which will give Obama the political capital needed to do a large scale campaign against ISIS, frame under a humanitarian mission.

The US wont deploy large scale ground forces and it can be hard to target forces inside cities. Like the US did to the Taliban in 2001 as the Northern Alliance advanced the US hit the trenches, bombed the vehicles, hit the Taliban as they retreated from cities our into the open prior to them reaching the next city.

ISIS has advantages now with heavy weapons but they are easy targets for US airpower. ISIS will not be able to stand and fight against Iraqi, Kurds or anyone else. They will need to resort to tactics employed by insurgents during the Iraq war, however this makes it hard to hold land and keep a functioning state together.

ISIS should have kept the focus on fighting and wining land, keep the hostages for latter.

With the US involved what is does do is give a moral boost to local forces and time to organise a defence and counter attacks which we are seeing some of now.

Times are certainly interesting and dangerous.
I can only think of sri Lanka against the Tamils as an instance where this may have worked; and that was a hell of a price. I really don't think this is practical, never mind paletable.

As for the warnings we have had about imminent danger, we seem to get these to soften us up before air strikes. Call me cynical, but I really am starting to have doubts as to who the enemy is.

But while we are supposing what attack will come, why has no one put forward the idea of a plane load of eboli victims being crashed into central new York and london?
Edited by newjez, 3 Sep 2014, 03:35 PM.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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ThePauk
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"why has no one put forward the idea of a plane load of eboli victims being crashed into central new York and london? "

because the crash and fire would destroy the virus...doh!
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hoofarted
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ThePauk
3 Sep 2014, 03:55 PM
"why has no one put forward the idea of a plane load of eboli victims being crashed into central new York and london? "

because the crash and fire would destroy the virus...doh!
Surely he means they fly over and throw Ebola victims out?
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ThePauk
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hoofarted
3 Sep 2014, 04:18 PM
Surely he means they fly over and throw Ebola victims out?
still just a dumb.... kills hardly any and is not a mass terror event. shutting down the US financial system for even a week would do far more actual terror.
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Black Panther
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Mike
3 Sep 2014, 03:08 PM
I have said this for along time, long prior to my presence on these forums.

The Middle East/North Africa and its many issues can only be resolved after a very large regional perhaps global conflict that sweeps away the old order.

People have over thrown a number of Dictators with some limited help from the West. The invasion of Iraq really set the tone in 2003. It showed just how weak Dictators can be and there weakness is hidden by the terror they use to keep the population under control. The 2003 invasion was the spark, with out Saddam falling these other events would not occur.

Some argue that keeping the dictators in power is better then instability, I disagree. In the short term yes, we have stability with dictators. In the longer term it is not. The Middle East is in desperate need of reform and modernisation of the mainstream population.

Secular states need to be formed that separate Islam from Politics.

The conflict with ISIS and other groups will morph into one large broader conflict. Borders will be erased and new nations formed that represent the populations and not arbitrary lines on a map dictated to by outside powers.

To get to this point the extremists such as ISIS need to be utterly defeated. I don't just mean a few bombs. ISIS and other groups need to be systematically rounded up in a large scale conflict and destroyed.

The problem we have in this "Modern Age" is we fight wars to limit causalities. While noble and a moral cause it is not what wins wars. If you limit causalities your enemy does not understand nor think they are defeated. You need to kill them and the supporters which means local populations that support the extremists until they give up or are wiped out. You cannot beat these guys unless you are prepared to get down to there level and do the dirty fighting and many will die.

Just as the Allied Bombed German & Japanese cities to force the populations to understand they cannot win, cities are levelled by artillery, large battles. Until the population understands support for ISIS like it was for the Nazis is not the answer. Many populations are caught between being killed by ISIS for not supporting them or being killed opposing them. It is a hard choice, but war is coming regardless of what choices people make.

I wonder what happens next if a US plane gets shot down or has a mechanical issue. ISIS lines then up on camera and beheads US service men and women, of course they rape the women first. What will be Obamas response, im sure this issue plays through his mind at night when going to bed. The US would either withdraw or double down and commit large forces to battle.

It is difficult to see how this plays out. I think nearly any opposition will rally to ISIS and fight the established powers. Battles are already occurring between ISIS or its supporters in Northern Iranian towns battling the revolutionary guard. What if ISIS defeats the revolutionary guard and towns begin to fall in Iran. The problem will spread rapidly as any group in opposition to the Mullahs will opt to join ISIS. Libyan groups over running the capital and other cities are reported to have joined ISIS.

ISIS forces and black flags have been seen in Lebanon villages close to Syria, Golan Heights close to Israel's border, South along the Jordian border and Saudi Arabia. Some Yemen Al-Qaeda groups are said to have switch to ISIS.

What if ISIS defeats Assad and most of Syria falls to them, this will spread like wild fire through out the region.

The only powers or combination of powers strong enough to stop them now is an alliance between Egypt, Saudi Arabia & Gulf States & Iran. The US can provide large scale reconnaissance and air support. I am not sure though if these nations ground forces are motivated enough to stop ISIS on the battlefield. In the end US combat troops may be needed but I don't see this happening unless Bagdad looks like falling or ISIS pushed into Saudi Arabia threaten global supply of oil and the world economy.

The situation in Ukraine could yet flare up into a full scale war drawing in Europe and the US as well.

What better time for China to make a move in Asia while the US is bogged down with ISIS and Russia. Could the US fight all 3 at once. The US may opt to fight none.



On a side note. ISIS beheading the Journalists, now 2 of them has turned US public opinion around. The brutality or the murders has turned public opinion from being 65% against intervention in Syria last year when Obama wanted to bomb due to the chemical weapons. It is now 63% in favour of intervention in Syria after the first beheading, this will only increase now with the report of a 2nd beheading.

ISIS has made a tactical error. Once US public opinion gets behind this Congress will follow which will give Obama the political capital needed to do a large scale campaign against ISIS, frame under a humanitarian mission.

The US wont deploy large scale ground forces and it can be hard to target forces inside cities. Like the US did to the Taliban in 2001 as the Northern Alliance advanced the US hit the trenches, bombed the vehicles, hit the Taliban as they retreated from cities our into the open prior to them reaching the next city.

ISIS has advantages now with heavy weapons but they are easy targets for US airpower. ISIS will not be able to stand and fight against Iraqi, Kurds or anyone else. They will need to resort to tactics employed by insurgents during the Iraq war, however this makes it hard to hold land and keep a functioning state together.

ISIS should have kept the focus on fighting and wining land, keep the hostages for latter.

With the US involved what is does do is give a moral boost to local forces and time to organise a defence and counter attacks which we are seeing some of now.

Times are certainly interesting and dangerous.
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Dr Strangelove Indeed.
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newjez
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ThePauk
3 Sep 2014, 03:55 PM
"why has no one put forward the idea of a plane load of eboli victims being crashed into central new York and london? "

because the crash and fire would destroy the virus...doh!
...and there were no bodies scattered around the Ukraine?
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Ex BP Golly
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Black Panther
3 Sep 2014, 11:08 AM
The fear bubble inflating BP!
WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
Share a cot with Milton?
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