Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]


Reply
Daily Iron Ore Price, Commodities and Precious Metals Update - September 2014
Topic Started: 2 Sep 2014, 05:16 PM (12,921 Views)
Mike
Default APF Avatar


Elastic
4 Sep 2014, 05:29 PM
1.4 billion Chinese would be happy about the price of iron ore falling.
Maybe he is celebrating in solidarity with our overlords.
No they wont.

Chinese Iron Ore mines are unprofitable at $90-100 a ton. Alot of unemployed Iron Ore workers in China.

Meanwhile Australias big miners are the most cost efficent producers in the world with some of the highest quality product. BHP and Rio will drive competition out of the market by sending them broke.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Shadow
Member Avatar
Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Guest
4 Sep 2014, 09:36 PM
in 2008 the GFC hit and he moved the goal posts
When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do?

My current prediction has been in place and unchanged since late 2008.

Let's not forget the bears have been predicting 40% crashes since 2008... so they couldn't even get the direction right, never mind the magnitude.

I got the direction right, and I'm going to be very close with the magnitude. Not bad for a prediction made eight years in advance.
Edited by Shadow, 5 Sep 2014, 09:46 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
newjez
Member Avatar


peter fraser
4 Sep 2014, 05:29 PM
OK - the spot price was $41 per tonne in November 2007

Prior to the GFC China and Japan bought on contract price, which was above spot price.

Here is an educated guess at the contract price of the day.

http://www.econstats.com/rt_ironore.htm

You can see that iron ore didn't really take off until 2005. Perth was booming when Fe was $76.20 per tonne USD. About $82.83 per tonne AUD. We are still higher than that now and selling much greater volumes, and I should think that efficiency has been ramped up.

The only other factor that I can think of is WA has increased it's Royalties.



Talk of a crash seem premature although it's not as profitable as it has been.
I think it's going to snow, so I build a snow shovel factory. I employ lots of people who need houses and infrastructure. The price of everything bar snow shovels goes through the roof. The factory is built, I have one guy making shovels, I sack the rest. There is a depression in this town and the price of everything falls.

Then it snows.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Shadow
Member Avatar
Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Guest
4 Sep 2014, 09:51 PM
I would say it is you that wishes to benefit from the misfortune of others.
No, I wish for everyone to benefit, and for no misfortune to befall anyone. Unlike the bears, I would never celebrate the misfortune of others.

Quote:
 
Perhaps he is cheering because this Chinese counterfeiting is finally coming to an end. And that housing will become more affordable
Why would a fall in the iron ore price make housing more affordable? The iron ore price has been falling for the past year. Did it make housing more affordable? If anything, it will add pressure on the RBA to cut interest rates, or keep rates low for longer, which would cause house prices to rise even faster. David Llewellyn-Smith doesn't get this at all.

Quote:
 
the young Australian citizen of many generations is unable to afford somewhere for their family to live
Young Australians are buying homes every day.

Just because you can't afford a home doesn't mean nobody else can. There are half a million homes being bought every year.

Quote:
 
Whose benefittimg from peoples misery now ?
Online dictionaries?

Quote:
 
you cheer on the young of Australia being unable to afford a basic right to life , housing
Incorrect. I am very happy to know that young Australians can afford housing, and that they are buying and renting homes as always.

I think it's great that Australia has such a low level of homelessness.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
peter fraser
Member Avatar


newjez
4 Sep 2014, 11:03 PM
I think it's going to snow, so I build a snow shovel factory. I employ lots of people who need houses and infrastructure. The price of everything bar snow shovels goes through the roof. The factory is built, I have one guy making shovels, I sack the rest. There is a depression in this town and the price of everything falls.

Then it snows.
Except it is snowing and Vale, Rio, and BHP have all ramped up their output to make sure that the snow plough output exceeds demand. Look at the volumes.

Why?

The players all want a monopoly - how do you achieve that? Does it suit the major producers to over produce.

When a major retailer moves into a new area what is the first thing they do? And it's unprofitable - why?

Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Guest
Unregistered

Shadow
4 Sep 2014, 10:57 PM
When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do?

My current prediction has been in place and unchanged since late 2008.

Let's not forget the bears have been predicting 40% crashes since 2008... so they couldn't even get the direction right, never mind the magnitude.

I got the direction right, and I'm going to be very close with the magnitude. Not bad for a prediction made five years in advance.
Only twelve hours to respond. Like you had any thing better to do on a baked bean budget.

Why not post the whole sentence, where is says you claimed the Sydney median would be $1,250,000 by 2014. Anything to hide, you claim you don't lie but have lied about that by claiming otherwise over the years.

Are you saying that becuase a crash has not happened, that it will not happen or cannot happen.

Why did you change your mind in 2008, after claiming in 2007 median house price in Sydney would be $1,250,000 by 2014 ?
"REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Guest
Unregistered

peter fraser
4 Sep 2014, 11:21 PM
Except it is snowing and Vale, Rio, and BHP have all ramped up their output to make sure that the snow plough output exceeds demand. Look at the volumes.

Why?

The players all want a monopoly - how do you achieve that? Does it suit the major producers to over produce.

When a major retailer moves into a new area what is the first thing they do? And it's unprofitable - why?
Peter, iron ore prices are crashing through the floor.

Will be all over the news tommorow.

Biggest ever smashing I have ever seen , some future down around 5% in one hour.

You can say goodbye to Iron ore prices.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2NJnL10vZ1Y&feature=youtube_gdata_player
"REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
newjez
Member Avatar


peter fraser
4 Sep 2014, 11:21 PM
Except it is snowing and Vale, Rio, and BHP have all ramped up their output to make sure that the snow plough output exceeds demand. Look at the volumes.

Why?

The players all want a monopoly - how do you achieve that? Does it suit the major producers to over produce.

When a major retailer moves into a new area what is the first thing they do? And it's unprofitable - why?
Umm, the mining companies planned this expansion well before the GFC. As far as they were concerned, the west was going to boom and China was going to feed that boom. I imagine they imagined consumption would be much higher than it is. I think they got lucky because China consumed more than they expected. But they still over estimated. Hell, they must have been planning this capex in 2000? GFC, who would have thought. Now they are just trying to make the best of a badish situation. It could have been much worse for them.

But what I was demonstrating was that there is a relationship between ore and property prices, but it is not a simple one.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Lef-tee
Default APF Avatar


Quote:
 
Chinese Iron Ore mines are unprofitable at $90-100 a ton. Alot of unemployed Iron Ore workers in China.


That's something that has always interested me because China was already the world's biggest producer of iron when the price was far below that. If it managed to keep churning out more red dirt than anyone else when $90 a tonne was still just a dream, why would they collapse now and put millions of Chinese workers out of work?

I guess the question is - how did they do it? Miw might have some answers but I suspect there was much greater - perhaps total - state ownership of Chinese mines back then and they may have been privatised since. But would the government of a quasi-communist, fairly militarized state that doesn't fully trust a great superpower like the US really let it's own capacity to produce it's own steel from it's own iron ore - one of the most basic building blocks for pretty much everything - simply collapse?

I would tend to think that China has a rather stronger sense of the term "strategic capacity" than stupid-is-as-stupid-does Australia. Happy to be corrected though.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
John Frum
Member Avatar


newjez
4 Sep 2014, 11:03 PM
I think it's going to snow, so I build a snow shovel factory. I employ lots of people who need houses and infrastructure. The price of everything bar snow shovels goes through the roof. The factory is built, I have one guy making shovels, I sack the rest. There is a depression in this town and the price of everything falls.

Then it snows.
Thanks newjez for your creative analogy to help explain to Peter the capex phase of a boom, you saved me the trouble.
Shadow
4 Sep 2014, 11:05 PM
No, I wish for everyone to benefit, and for no misfortune to befall anyone. Unlike the bears, I would never celebrate the misfortune of others.


Why would a fall in the iron ore price make housing more affordable? The iron ore price has been falling for the past year. Did it make housing more affordable? If anything, it will add pressure on the RBA to cut interest rates, or keep rates low for longer, which would cause house prices to rise even faster.
Oh I get it - you're just like, one big beautiful philanthropist, channellimg your endless love for your fellow citizens by posting here incessantly. Shadow boldly going forth to save our poor misguided youth from the deceitful lies of the crash-dreaming 40 year olds, who spunked the last 20 years of their income on wine, women and song and are angry about being locked out of a runaway property market.

More likely you're a vested interest that tries to win arguments by boring intelligent people witless with your circular logic to explain the magic of ever increasing real house price gains, which sometimes are stagnating or sometimes going up forever, depending on what point you're trying to make.

At least David Llewellyn makes a coherent argument and provides a logical chain of thought. Even if he does get crabby and a little dictatorial if the dice don't land with the numbers he wants sometimes. In the long run I expect he will be right and you will be wrong.
Wow, $84.30 a tonne. Almost a 2% drop overnight. The arse has well and truly fallen out of the market.

That, combined with an AUD preparing for liftoff can only mean one thing.

Housing BOOM!
Edited by John Frum, 5 Sep 2014, 08:03 AM.
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness.
"Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
Go to Next Page
« Previous Topic · Australian Property Forum · Next Topic »
Reply



Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.

Forum Rules: The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.

Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.

Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.

This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.

For more information go to Limitations on Exclusive Rights: Fair Use

Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ

Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy