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Daily Iron Ore Price, Commodities and Precious Metals Update - September 2014
Topic Started: 2 Sep 2014, 05:16 PM (12,915 Views)
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Iron ore prices hit lowest since 2009 as oversupply woes linger

Thu Sep 11, 2014 10:36am EDT
By Manolo Serapio Jr

SINGAPORE, Sept 11 (Reuters) - Iron ore prices fell on Thursday to their lowest since September 2009, extending a losing streak into a third day, amid abundant supply and slower growth in Chinese demand that have seen the steelmaking commodity lose nearly 40 percent in value this year.

The weaker steel market in China, the world's biggest consumer and producer, is also a major strain for iron ore, with slower consumption prompting steel mills to cut prices for next month.

Iron ore for immediate delivery to China .IO62-CNI=SI fell 0.4 percent to $81.90 a tonne, according to data compiled by Steel Index. This is the eighth daily fall since the beginning of September.

Along with miners unloading cargoes in the spot market, Chinese traders are clearing their stocks at ports, piling further pressure on prices, traders said.

"Quite a few traders in Tangshan and Tianjin are clearing their port stocks, selling some cargoes at a loss as prices could fall some more," an iron ore trader in Shanghai said.

Most mills buying iron ore are doing so hand to mouth, choosing delivery dates that are closer to the time that they would need the material instead of stocking up ahead, he said.

Top miners Vale and Rio Tinto sold cargoes at separate tenders on Thursday, traders said.

Vale, the world's biggest iron ore producer, sold 135,000 tonnes of 62.99 percent grade Brazilian iron ore and 77,000 tonnes of 64.49 percent grade material, they said.

Second-ranked Rio sold 170,000 tonnes of 61 percent grade Australian Pilbara iron ore fines.

The raw material is the biggest revenue earner for Vale and Rio.

SURPLUS

Morgan Stanley has projected a global supply surplus of 79 million tonnes this year, 158 million tonnes in 2015 and 256 million tonnes in 2018.

"Recent price falls in iron ore do appear to be forcing higher-cost coastal Chinese mines to close, but others continue to shoulder losses and/or maintain financial support from provincial governments," Australia and New Zealand Banking Group said in a note.

Baoshan Iron and Steel, China's second-biggest steelmaker, said on Wednesday it will cut prices of its main products for October delivery by 100 yuan a tonne, after keeping them flat over the past three months.

"Our steel mill clients are telling us that they don't have enough orders for September and October so they're quite cautious in buying more iron ore," the Shanghai trader said.

Japanese trading house Mitsui & Co may miss the current year's profit target of $1.1 billion for its metals business due to the slump in iron ore, warned a senior executive, who said prices may fall to as low as $80 a tonne before rebounding.

Mitsui had an annual iron ore output of 51 million tonnes in the last business year to March 31 through its equity holdings in mines.

Iron ore for January delivery on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed flat at 585 yuan ($95) a tonne, not far above a contract low of 570 yuan reached on Wednesday.

Read more: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/11/markets-ironore-idUSL3N0RC2OU20140911
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CBA Commodities Daily Alert 15-Sep-14

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Iron ore rebounds to USD85/t (CFR China)

Iron ore rebounded 3.9% to USD85.20/t (CFR China) as stronger
steel prices prompted steel mills to restock iron ore. Steel mills also
sought to restock iron ore before the National Day holiday in early
October.

Base metals finished mostly lower on Chinese demand concerns
after China’s industrial output growth and fixed asset investment in
August fell from July levels and missed forecasts. Gold futures and
US WTI crude oil advanced as the US dollar weakened before the
September Federal Reserve meeting. Gold also rose on demand
hopes after India’s gold import value more than doubled in August
relative to a year ago. The Brent-WTI premium narrowed to a fivemonth
low as China’s economic data in August came in weaker than
expected.

US industrial production fell by 0.1% m/m in August, below forecasts
of a 0.4% increase and below July’s revised reading of a 0.2% lift.
The fall is the first decline since January. Industrial output in the 18-
nation euro area saw a 1.0% m/m increase in July while the wider EU
28 saw a lift of 0.7% in the same period.

The governments of Russia and Zimbabwe have agreed to jointly
develop the 600koz per annum Darwendale platinum project in
Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe has the world’s second largest deposits of
platinum after South Africa.

India’s iron ore exports have lifted 6.5% y/y to 7.61Mt in 1H14, while
the average realised price has fallen 5.9% y/y to USD88.5/t.

From January to June, India’s LNG imports have declined 1.9% y/y
to 6.58Mt, with realised LNG prices up 16.6% to USD14.7/mmbtu.
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Big bounce in iron ore price fails to lift shares

September 16, 2014 - 5:30PM
Sally Rose

Australian shares and the local currency remained under pressure on Tuesday despite the biggest rebound in the iron ore price for six months.

Globally investors are focused on the US Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which ends Wednesday night, as they wait for clues as to the future direction and pace of change in interest rate policy.

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index and the broader All Ordinaries Index each fell 0.5 per cent, on Tuesday to 5445.4 points and 5446.2 points respectively. In currency markets, the Australian dollar had dropped to US89.94¢ shortly after the ASX closed.

Local shares began their decline shortly after the session opened, having taken a mixed lead from offshore. In the US the S&P 500 edged lower on Monday night, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was modestly higher after industrial production statistics for the world's biggest economy edged lower for the first time in seven months. In Europe major markets were mixed ahead of the outcome of the Scottish referendum on independence.

Minutes from the Reserve Bank issued on Tuesday once again included a warning on house prices and reiterated the central bank's concern about the relative strength of the Australian dollar. "The exchange rate remains above most estimates of its fundamental value, particularly given the declines in key commodity prices," the minutes stated.

"I was speaking to Qantas Airways chief executive Alan Joyce last week, who told me he would feel more comfortable with an exchange rate around US85¢, and I think most companies exposed to offshore earnings feel similarly," Nikko Asset Management head of Australian equities Brad Potter said.

But his colleague Roger Bridges, Nikko's local head of fixed income, said executives holding out for a drop in the exchange rate to US85¢ had "about zero chance" of getting their wish.

"As long as China's economy remains reasonably strong and the iron ore price remains around current levels then the RBA has little hope of talking the dollar down," Mr Bridges said.

"However, the wild card for global interest rate and currency markets is what the European Central Bank does in the coming months," he said.

In China, the government announced a move to ban dirty coal imports, which could affect local producers. Whitehaven Coal, Australia's biggest straight coalminer, slipped 0.3 per cent to $1.82.

The mining sector was flat overall, enough to make it the best-performing sector on the day after the spot price for iron ore, delivered in China, showed a surprise recovery, rising 3.9 per cent to $US85.20 a tonne.

Resources giant BHP Billiton was up 0.3 per cent to $35.74, while main rival Rio Tinto added 0.2 per cent to $61.81 amid reports Swiss mining giant Glencore had it in its sights as a takeover target. Iron ore miner Fortescue Metals Group lifted 1 per cent to $4.

Iron ore juniors BC Iron and Atlas Iron were the best-performing stocks in the S&P/ASX 200, climbing 4.9 per cent and 2.6 per cent to $2.15 and 59¢ respectively.

It was losses among the big four banks and Telstra that weighed heaviest on the index.

Commonwealth Bank dropped 1 per cent to $78.19, while Westpac fell 0.8 per cent to $33.50. ANZ lost 0.8 per cent to $32.12, and National Australia Bank shed 0.5 per cent to $33.64.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/big-bounce-in-iron-ore-price-fails-to-lift-shares-20140916-10hqwe.html
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CBA Commodities Daily Alert 18-Sep-14

Posted Image

Russia forecasts stable crude oil exports

Russia’s Economy Ministry estimates that the country’s crude oil
exports will fall marginally, from 230Mt in 2014 to 227.5Mt in 2015,
before lifting gradually to 233.5Mt in 2017. On the production front,
the ministry estimates stable output of ~525Mtpa from 2014 to 2017.
The Ministry is forecasting realised crude oil prices to average
USD100/bbl from 2015 to 2017.

Commodity prices finished mostly lower as the US dollar
strengthened, reducing the purchasing power of non US-consumers.
Base metals also declined on demand concerns after new home
prices in 68 out of the 70 cities in China fell from July to August, and
after housing starts in the US declined more than expected in
August. Gold futures continued to fall after the US Federal Reserve
lifted its median estimate of the Federal Funds rate in 2015 and 2016
in a meeting that ended earlier this week. Iron ore fell by 1.4% to
USD83.00/t (CFR China).

According to the International Stainless Steel Forum (ISSF), world
stainless steel output rose by 11% y/y to 20.9Mt in 1H14. Production
lifted in every major region relative to last year except Central &
Eastern Europe, which declined 5.4% y/y. China’s stainless steel
output advanced 17% y/y in 1H14.

GFMS, a research unit of Thomson Reuters, forecasts gold prices to
average USD1,250/oz in 2H14, before hitting a price floor next year.
The group said that any price fall to ~USD1,200/oz will likely see a
strong resurgence in physical gold demand, particularly from the
price-responsive regions of Asia and the Middle-East.

Tugboat workers at Australia’s Port Hedland, the world’s largest bulk
export terminal, have approved another strike this year over leave
and wages. Iron ore from mines operated by BHP Billiton and
Fortescue are shipped through the port.
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Iron ore prices about to drop below $80.

I would say that either next week or next month iron ore prices will be in the seventies.

There is a large chance that we may never see $80 again not long after this, and that prices have little support going forward from here and will likely just continue to deteriorate and decline further.

So much for all the so called eggberts claiming price will average $120-$130 a tonne and all this bullshit. I told you mid 2012 that prices would sit firmly between $80-$100 in about a years time. My call was premature or delayed through more mindless government crap. But we are there now and beyhond it , with prices about to drop into the seventies.

Hows iron ore prices looking now timmy, you gutless little troll. Come and face the music like a man, instead of runaway like a little girl. No substance buddy, nothing at all, not that we ever expected anything more from you.

This is what will happen to most bulls, they will end up just pissing off when the obviuos becomes even more clearer. And like timmy , we had to put up with all that never ending crap while we were trying to explain the obviuos to the uneducatdd herd rushing headlong into the fire.

Timmehhhhh.... :bye:
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CBA Commodities Daily Alert 26-Sep-14

Posted Image

Alumina lifts to USD358/t (FOB Australia)

Alumina price rose by 5.4% w/w to USD358/t (FOB Australia) on
deficit concerns as China’s bauxite stockpiles wind down and as
aluminium output looks to grow faster than alumina output in 2H14.

Base metals and crude oil benchmarks were mixed despite the US
economy expanding at an annualised pace of 4.6% q/q in 2Q14, the
fastest rate since 4Q11. The strong US economic data appears to
have prompted gold prices lower by reducing the appeal of the
precious metal as an alternative asset. Iron ore remained flat at
USD78.60/t (CFR China).

The total number of drill rigs deployed onshore in the US remained
flat at 1,931 last week. Rigs deployed in oil plays fell from a recordhigh
of 1,601 to 1,592, while rigs deployed in gas plays increased
from 329 to 338.

Operations have been halted at Freeport’s Grasberg copper and gold
mine in Indonesia after an accident killed four miners on Saturday.
Early this year, Freeport hoped to produce 500kt of copper and
50-55t of gold from Grasberg in 2014.

A Philippines congressman has filed a bill seeking to ban the export
of unprocessed iron, nickel, chromite and manganese ore from the
Philippines by 1 January 2021. The move is hoped to encourage
investment in downstream processing in the Philippines’ mining
industry, similar to the motives and mining laws enacted by Indonesia
earlier this year.

According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), profits at
industrial companies in China fell 0.6% y/y in August, the first decline
since August 2012.
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http://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/tom-albanese-iron-ore-miners-facing-pain-point-20140929-10nl7g.html

Still waiting on that apology stringberger. Time to slither out of your hole and man up. Be nice to see Timmy face the music. What a bunch of gutless nobodies.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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newjez
30 Sep 2014, 06:18 AM
http://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/tom-albanese-iron-ore-miners-facing-pain-point-20140929-10nl7g.html

Still waiting on that apology stringberger. Time to slither out of your hole and man up. Be nice to see Timmy face the music. What a bunch of gutless nobodies.
It's sad how almost every analyst (armchair or otherwise) clings so fiercely to the blind hope that loss making mines will be closed in China before our own loss making mines close here. Surely, every Australian personally knows by now that zombie institutions are the goal. Our economic wizards teach us that debt = wealth creation, so loss making mines are GOOD! More losses = more debt = more wealth!

Either you fools accept that our own loss making industries are all going to close, or stop hoping that China's mines will close. Because the same fundamentals you're using to justify mine closures in China, apply to the entire Australian economy.
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CBA Commodities Daily Alert 29-Sep-14

Posted Image

Nickel falls on surplus concerns

Nickel fell on surplus concerns as LME inventories continue to rise.
We believe the flow of nickel into LME warehouses reflects flows
from metal originally tied to Chinese financing deals. These deals
have come under scrutiny after it was found that some deals were
fraudulent, discouraging a number of investors.

Base metals and crude oil benchmarks finished mostly higher on
demand hopes after US consumer spending rebounded in August.
Gold futures rose as equity markets declined, boosting the appeal of
the precious metal as an alternative asset. Iron ore fell by 1.1% to a
five-year low of USD77.70/t (CFR China).

Freeport-McMoRan said that while operations have been halted at its
Grasberg copper and gold mine in Indonesia due to a vehicle
accident over the weekend, copper concentrate exports should
remain unaffected. Early this year, Freeport planned to produce
500kt of copper and 50-55t of gold in 2014.

Japan’s LNG imports fell by 2.7% y/y to 7.1Mt in August, with the
average realised LNG price increasing 2.4% y/y to
USD15.93/mmbtu. From January to August, Japan’s LNG imports
have increased 1.9% y/y to 59.2Mt.

Japan’s metallurgical coal imports declined by 20.7% y/y to 5.52Mt
in August, with the average realised price falling 21.9% y/y to
USD106/t. From January to August, Japan’s coking coal imports
have contracted 5.1% y/y to 49.7Mt.
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herbie
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Alex Barton
30 Sep 2014, 07:35 PM
.. Iron ore fell by 1.1% to a five-year low of USD77.70/t (CFR China) ...
'Tis but a flesh wound ... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ikssfUhAlgg ... :)
Edited by herbie, 30 Sep 2014, 08:36 PM.
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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