Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]


Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
  • 11
Daily Iron Ore Price, Commodities and Precious Metals Update - September 2014
Topic Started: 2 Sep 2014, 05:16 PM (12,912 Views)
Admin
Member Avatar
Administrator

CBA Commodities Daily Alert 01-Sep-14

Posted Image

Euro and Chinese PMIs slow in August

Base metals and crude oil benchmarks finished mostly lower on
demand concerns, after manufacturing sectors in Europe and China
slowed below forecasts in August. US markets were closed
yesterday due to the Labor Day public holiday.

Iron ore fell by 0.9% to USD87.10/t (CFR China) as steel mills and
traders in China show little buying interest on expectations that iron
ore prices will fall more given current ample supply.

India’s government is proposing to cancel licences for 172 nonoperational
coal mines in India after India’s Supreme Court ruled that
the allocation of coal mines since 1993 was illegal. If the government
does proceed to cancel the 172 mine licences, it appears likely that it
will auction them to the market. The decision could potentially delay
several infrastructure projects in India, including power plants, steel
mills and aluminium smelters.

Saudi Arabian Mining Company (or Maaden) has commenced
commercial production at its 740ktpa Maaden aluminium smelter in
Saudi Arabia. The project is owned 74.9% by Maaden and 25.1% by
US-based Alcoa.

All India Gems & Jewellery Trade Federation estimates that India’s
gold imports rose to 40-50t in August, as manufacturers build
inventories before India’s festival and wedding season begins from
October. India’s festival season is usually associated with a strong
pickup in gold demand.
Attached to this post:
Attachments: Commodities010914.jpg (44.48 KB)
Follow OzPropertyForum on Twitter | Like APF on Facebook | Circle APF on Google+
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Admin
Member Avatar
Administrator

Quote:
 
Iron Ore Posts Longest Losing Run in Two Years as Surplus Builds

By Jasmine Ng August 29, 2014

Iron ore extended its decline to the lowest since October 2009, posting the longest run of daily losses in two years, on concern global supplies are topping demand just as China’s recovery shows signs of faltering.

Ore with 62 percent content delivered to Qingdao, China slid 0.1 percent to $87.62 a dry metric ton today, dropping for a 10th day, according to Metal Bulletin Ltd. That’s the worst run since August 2012. The raw material used to make steel fell 8.4 percent this month, declining for four straight weeks.

Prices slumped 35 percent this year as producers including Rio Tinto Group (RIO) and BHP Billiton Ltd. expanded output, pushing the market into oversupply. Data this month showed an unexpected slowdown in China’s industrial output and home prices slumping in more cities in Asia’s largest economy. As some buyers were unwilling to take large amounts, that was forcing sellers to reduce prices, according to brokerage Sucden Financial Ltd.

“Iron ore demand appears to be cooling in China,” Daniel Briesemann, an analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt, said by e-mail in response to Bloomberg questions before today’s price was released. “The usual seasonal uptick in Chinese demand will likely fail to materialize this year. Supply in the seaborne market also remains plentiful.”

Global seaborne output will exceed demand by 72 million tons this year and 175 million tons in 2015, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimates. The commodity will average $106 a ton this year and $80 a ton in 2015, according to Goldman.

Wait-and-See

The urgency for mills to restock isn’t compelling when port stockpiles are high and accessible and prices are low, Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. said in a report this week. Mills will adopt a wait-and-see approach as prices drop to see how low rates can go, according to Morgan Stanley.

Inventories at Chinese ports rose to 109.7 million tons as of Aug. 22, according to Shanghai Steelhome Information Technology Co. That’s 27 percent higher this year and near the record of 113.7 million tons set in July.

“Buyers are unwilling to purchase large amounts of cargo, which has in turn forced sellers to slash offers further,” said Kash Kamal, an analyst at Sucden Financial in London. “We could struggle with lower prices for the remainder of the year.”

The economy in China, which buys about 67 percent of seaborne ore, is set to expand this year at the slowest pace since 1990. Gross domestic product will probably grow 7.4 percent this year, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The government has set a target of about 7.5 percent.

Read more: http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-08-29/iron-ore-posts-longest-losing-run-in-two-years-as-surplus-builds
Follow OzPropertyForum on Twitter | Like APF on Facebook | Circle APF on Google+
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Perthite
Member Avatar


Is demand about to fall?
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
newjez
Member Avatar


Perthite
2 Sep 2014, 08:49 PM
Is demand about to fall?
Do you reckon Timmy put on an extra bathroom with his redundancy money?
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Admin
Member Avatar
Administrator

Quote:
 
need2know: Iron ore hits fresh two-year low, gold, oil slump

September 3, 2014 - 7:47AM

The price of iron ore has slumped to a fresh two-year low, falling 0.5% overnight to $US86.70 per metric tonne. The price of spot gold dropped by 1.6% while Brent Oil suffered a 2.4% drop to $100.45 a barrel. Locally, shares are poised to open unchanged ahead of the latest reading on Australian economic growth after Wall Street closed mixed in narrow trade.

• SPI futures flat at 5646

• AUD at 92.80 US cents, 97.54 Japanese yen, 70.67 Euro cents and 56.32 British pence.

• On Wall St, S&P 500 -0.1%, Dow -0.2%, Nasdaq +0.4%

• In Europe, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%, FTSE +0.1%, CAC -0.03%, DAX +0.3%

• Iron ore falls 0.5% to $US86.70 per metric tonne

• Spot gold slips 1.6% to $US1265.11 an ounce

• Brent oil down 2.4% to $US100.45 per barrel

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/need2know-iron-ore-hits-fresh-twoyear-low-gold-oil-slump-20140903-3eryh.html
Follow OzPropertyForum on Twitter | Like APF on Facebook | Circle APF on Google+
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Guest
Unregistered

All over for iron ore prices, the futures market took another smashing last night.

They say in the article above that the 2014 average will be $106 per tonne, but the second half of 2014 will be lucky to see prices average $85 per tonne. Prices will drop below $80 before much longer, so there other forecast of a 2015 average of $80 a tonne might be a bit optimistic.
"REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Admin
Member Avatar
Administrator

Quote:
 
Iron ore flirting with five-year low as global supply glut and slowdown in China's property sector threaten to push the metal lower.

Overnight, iron ore fell to a fresh low of $US86.70 a tonne overnight, the price it reached in early September 2012. Should it fall below that price, it will hit its lowest since October 2009.

It will drop to $US75 a tonne in the second half of next year as rising low-cost supplies from Australia and Brazil worsen a global glut and the slowdown in China's property market curbs demand growth, CLSA analyst Ian Roper said.

Ore with 62 per cent content at the Chinese port of Qingdao dropped to $US86.70 a dry tonne on Tuesday, according to Metal Bulletin Ltd. The price averaged about $US94 a tonne this quarter compared with $US121 in the first three months of 2014.

"The oversupply situation is only going to worsen over the next few years," said Singapore-based Roper, who's covered the market since 2001. The property-market slowdown in China "looks increasingly serious for steel demand next year," he said.

The forecasts from CLSA are in line with the view from Goldman Sachs, which predicts that the raw material will average $US80 a tonne next year. Morgan Stanley and Citigroup expect prices to average $US90 next year.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets-live/markets-live-iron-ore-at-5year-low-20140903-3es5f.html
Follow OzPropertyForum on Twitter | Like APF on Facebook | Circle APF on Google+
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Admin
Member Avatar
Administrator

CBA Commodities Daily Alert 02-Sep-14

Posted Image

US manufacturing gauge at 3½-year highs

Base metals finished mostly higher on demand hopes after the US
ISM manufacturing index rose from 57.1 in July to 59 in August, the
highest level since March 2011 and well above forecasts of 57. The
orders sub-component of the ISM manufacturing index rose to its
highest level in a decade. A reading above 50 indicates an
expansion. The stronger-than-expected increase in the US
manufacturing sector boosted confidence in the US economic
recovery and lifted expectations the US Federal Reserve will lift
interest rates sooner than markets expect. Crude oil futures declined
on demand concerns after data earlier in the week showed that
manufacturing in Europe and China slowed more than forecast in
August. Iron ore declined by 0.5% to USD86.70/t (CFR China).

PanAust said its Frieda River copper and gold project in Papua New
Guinea may cost ~USD1.7b to develop and potentially less if it takes
a staged approach. The company estimates that at copper prices of
US280c/lb and gold prices of USD1,300/oz, the project is attractive
to develop, which is slated to annually produce 125kt of copper and
200koz of gold.

Indonesia’s government has signalled that it may cap the country’s
coal output to 401Mtpa starting in 2015. The Energy Resources
ministry estimates that the move will see Indonesia’s coal exports fall
from 312Mt in 2015 to 281Mt in 2020, as domestic demand
increases from 89Mt in 2015 to 120Mt in 2020. Indonesia produced
421Mt in 2013.

Australia’s government has kept its election pledge and scrapped the
30% mining tax on iron ore and coal profits above AUD75m/year.
Attached to this post:
Attachments: Commodities020914.jpg (45.19 KB)
Follow OzPropertyForum on Twitter | Like APF on Facebook | Circle APF on Google+
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Admin
Member Avatar
Administrator

Quote:
 
Chinese steel, iron ore fall further as traders stay away

Tue Sep 2, 2014 9:11am IST
By David Stanway

BEIJING, Sept 2 (Reuters) - Chinese steel and iron ore
prices fell further on Tuesday, with buyers unconvinced by
efforts to tackle a supply glut and worried that weak
manufacturing is adding to the damage caused by a property
slowdown in the world's top steelmaking nation.
A tightened credit environment, which has made it difficult
for steel mills to continue producing, is also unlikely to ease
after China's major banks revealed an increase in non-performing
loans in the first half of the year.
The most traded rebar contract on the Shanghai Futures
Exchange fell 0.58 percent on Tuesday morning to hit a
new low of 2,907 yuan ($473) per tonne. It has plunged by more
than a fifth since the beginning of the year. The most active
iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange
finished at 625 yuan per tonne, up 0.6 percent.
Despite entering into what is traditionally a peak season,
China's biggest privately-owned steel firm, the Shagang Group,
said it would cut the prices of its major products in early
September, with rebar set to fall 100 yuan per tonne.
Iron ore prices resumed their slide on Monday, with
benchmark 62 percent iron ore for immediate delivery into China
.IO62-CNI=SI ended Monday down 0.9 percent at $87.1 per tonne,
wiping out the gains of last Friday.
"We don't see any bright spots right now - steel mills
aren't making profit and I don't expect any new stimulus coming
from the government any time soon," said a trader based in the
major steel producing city of Tangshan in Hebei province.
He said most traders have switched to exporting steel
products, where profit can still be made, but industry
consultancy Custeel warned last week that the 36.9 percent surge
in steel exports in the first seven months of the year was
unlikely to be sustained.
Iron ore supplies continue to rise, with imported stocks at
China's ports rising 1.15 million tonnes to 110.85 million
tonnes by the end of last week, the second weekly increase in
succession, according to data compiled by industry consultancy
SteelHome. SH-TOT-IRONINV
Traders said the scale of the recent decline in iron ore
prices points to "structural" changes in the market that cannot
be reversed, and after flocking to the market from 2009 onwards,
dealers are now abandoning the sector in large numbers.
"It isn't just because of weak demand but also because
anyone can now get hold of import licenses, and anyone can buy
iron ore on platforms like the Beijing Metals Exchange - there's
hardly any advantage in being a trader now," a Beijing-based
trader said.

Read more: http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/09/02/markets-ironore-idINL3N0R31IN20140902
Follow OzPropertyForum on Twitter | Like APF on Facebook | Circle APF on Google+
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Admin
Member Avatar
Administrator

Quote:
 
Asian iron ore market sees southbound movement on weak buying, poor steel

Singapore (Platts)--1Sep2014/736 am EDT/1136 GMT

The trading week opened to extremely lackluster response from the buying front, with mills and traders both shrinking back from spot commitment for fear of a further plunge in prices. Weakening steel prices also contributed to the pull-back in buying interest.

Platts assessed the 62% Fe IODEX at $87/dmt CFR North China, $1/dmt down from Friday.

"The large international traders still have a lot of cargoes they have yet to sell off, and the medium and smaller ones don't dare to buy more because sentiment is so negative," a Shanghai-based trader said. "Overall, very little material is actually changing hands and there is really no buying interest at all."

The trader added that he did not think there would be a sustained rebound in prices to come, even as the seasonality became more conducive for steel consumption in the construction and infrastructure development sectors.

"I doubt there will be much of a recovery at all in September and October as the supply overhang of seaborne cargoes this year is a big issue. Prices can't lift because of that."

Lackluster steel performance also had a part to play in sentiment remaining pessimistic.

Physical spot prices of steel square billet in Tangshan lost Yuan 30/mt from Friday to conclude at Yuan 2,520/mt ($408.50/mt) ex-stock Tangshan, a Chinese trader said.

Shagang Group, China's largest private steelmaker located in eastern China's Jiangsu province, said Monday it would shave its rebar ex-works prices for the September 1-10 period by Yuan 100/metric ton ($16/mt), the largest-ever cut since a Yuan 130/mt price cut on January 11 this year.

Reflecting a sharp fall in spot prices over the past 10 days, Shagang's latest cut brings its price for 16-25mm diameter HRB400 rebar to the lowest this year, at Yuan 3,000/mt ($488/mt) including a 17% VAT.

A steelmaker in the north added that they were "totally not interested" in seaborne cargoes currently as they were relying on term volumes to tide them over and only waiting on the sidelines to see how the market would move for seaborne material.

"In any case, we are keeping our ore inventories as low as possible, the same as most other mills are doing."

A Hebei-based steelmaker said that mills were still making enough margins from steel sales to enable them to have "enough ready cash" to buy cheaper port stocks instead of seaborne shipments.

"But if steel prices keep going down the way they are, then even that cashflow is going to come under more threat and buying will die down even more."

Port stocks of 61%-Fe Australian Pilbara Blend fines in Qingdao, northern China, were heard to be trading at Yuan 590/wmt ($83.25/dmt on an import parity basis) free-on-truck, including Yuan 35/wmt in port charges and 17% VAT.

Meanwhile, the futures markets dipped Monday after a short-lived boost Friday.

Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange were stable, with the most actively traded January contract closing at Yuan 620/dmt ($100.50/mt), down Yuan 8/dmt from Friday, and settling at Yuan 621/dmt, down Yuan 6/mt on the day.

Steel rebar futures fared the same, with the most liquid January contract in Shanghai last trading at Yuan 2,915/mt ($472.50/mt), down Yuan 25/mt from Friday, and settling at Yuan 2,924/mt, down Yuan 13/mt on the day, according to a Chinese steelmaker.

Read more: http://www.platts.com/latest-news/metals/singapore/asian-iron-ore-market-sees-southbound-movement-26870338
Follow OzPropertyForum on Twitter | Like APF on Facebook | Circle APF on Google+
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
Go to Next Page
« Previous Topic · Australian Property Forum · Next Topic »
Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
  • 11



Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.

Forum Rules: The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.

Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.

Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.

This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.

For more information go to Limitations on Exclusive Rights: Fair Use

Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ

Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy