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Inflation fading fast
Topic Started: 1 Sep 2014, 09:53 PM (336 Views)
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From Westpac:
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The Gauge was flat in August (–0.01% at two decimal places) following a 0.2% increase in July and a flat print in June. The annual pace has accelerated eased back to 2.5%yr in August from 2.6%yr in July and a recent peak of 3.0% in June. The most recent low was 2.1%yr in Oct 2013.

• Whereas a few months ago the gauge was threatening to breach the RBA’s inflation target band, now it has eased back into the mid-point. Westpac had been forecasting inflation to pick up in late 2013/early 2014 and then ease but we have to admit we are surprised by the rate of deceleration.
• The annualised three monthly pace is now just 0.8% from 2.0% in July and 3.8% in June. For the month, Westpac estimates a small historical negative seasonal factor for August and notes we are heading into the seasonally softer fourth quarter.
• The trimmed mean fell 0.1% in August, following a rise of 0.4% in July. The trimmed mean increased by 0.4% over the three months to August, following a rise of 0.5% for the three months to July. In the year to August, the trimmed mean rose by 2.7%.
• TD-MI reports that contributing to the overall change in August were price rises for fruit & vegetables (+2.3%), furniture & furnishings (+1.3%), and newspapers, books & stationery (+3.8%). These were offset by falls in health (-0.8%), automotive fuel (-3.5%), and holiday travel & accommodation (-1.2%).
• The net balance (number of price rises less number of price falls) has eased back to 7 from 14 in July. It is still now less than the long run average of 10 and the 2013 average of 9. It is also a step down for the average of 14 for the last six months.

• The Q2 CPI surprised with a modest 0.6%qtr and as such, left the Gauge tracking well ahead of it. The August Gauge is pointing (now we have the mid-month of the quarter to work with) to a very benign 0.2% rise in the Q3 CPI. But the Gauge has been running well ahead of the CPI and historically, there have been points like this where the CPI has “caught up”.
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Will
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It certainly is, the latest WRX STI is 10,000 dollars cheaper then the previous model.
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